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Robot automation will 'take 800M jobs by 2030' (2017)

52 点作者 Futurebot超过 6 年前

15 条评论

caseymarquis超过 6 年前
I think the article has it backwards. The US and similar nations will be the least affected by this. Nations like India will be hit the hardest.<p>Humans are flexible. Machines typically aren&#x27;t. The more automation exists in a facility, the less flexible it becomes.<p>Until we hit AGI, I think there is a cap on how automated a facility should (not can) become.<p>A critical piece of this is that highly automated systems are expensive, and difficult to upgrade in a piecemeal fashion. Thus, using humans to tie systems together limits the amount invested in automation, and can save you money in the long run. US manufacturers are already aware of this, as some are dealing with the effects of aging overly automated production lines.<p>All of this depends on what you&#x27;re making and what quantity, but until we reach AGI, over-automating is a mistake manufacturers have made and will make again.<p>In the US and similar, we&#x27;ve automated about as much as we could given existing technology. Newly available technology raises the automation cap a bit, but not that much.<p>Contrast this with nations which are just getting to the point where mass automation is available and have a spiking per capita income. They&#x27;re much more likely to see massive amounts of automation, proportional to their increasing wages.
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scottlocklin超过 6 年前
&quot;Nanotech will be a trillion dollar business by 2015&quot; -source NSF document in 2001<p><a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wtec.org&#x2F;loyola&#x2F;nano&#x2F;NSET.Societal.Implications&#x2F;nanosi.pdf" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wtec.org&#x2F;loyola&#x2F;nano&#x2F;NSET.Societal.Implications&#x2F;n...</a>
randomacct3847超过 6 年前
I wonder if the yellow vest protests in Paris and other European cities is our first taste of the kind of revolt that will happen when this really starts happening
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whack超过 6 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;outlookzen.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;01&#x2F;05&#x2F;prosperity-comes-from-eliminating-jobs-not-saving-them&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;outlookzen.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;01&#x2F;05&#x2F;prosperity-comes-from-elim...</a><p>&gt; Prosperity Comes From Eliminating Jobs, Not Saving Them
open-source-ux超过 6 年前
I&#x27;m a bit cautious about this prediction. When the web became popular, I was convinced it would be the end of Estate Agents (Real Estate brokers) and Recruitment Agents. But both have thrived in an online world and seem as numerous today as they&#x27;ve ever been.<p>Other automated changes for manual jobs would require substantial changes to infrastructure. For example, refuse collection using underground tubes to suck away rubbish is already a reality (e.g. Envac system designed in Sweden) but it&#x27;s unlikely to be retro-fitted to existing housing developments. On the other hand, things like housing construction and crop picking I can imagine will continue to see improvements in automation.
nojvek超过 6 年前
Robot Automation wouldn’t do jack shit in the larger scale in 10 years. May be 50 years yes, not 10.<p>Robots right now are bulky and incredibly expensive devices which don’t even come close to human dexterity, intelligence or flexibility.<p>Look at self driving cars. First DARPA driving challenge happened in 2004 and self driving cars are still very dumb and have killed a few people on the road. Simulation hours don’t count. Real driving hours without human engagement count.<p>Sure in soft intelligence like speech recognition, language translation, vision we’ve done big advances. Deep Surveillance is going to be a real thing where every individual&#x2F;car is tracked through the city.<p>But replacing a ~billion jobs with robots. Not going to happen.<p>Unless we have huge advances in bio manufacturing and computing. Doing it like DNA does it. Building machines from the same fabric we’re made of. Grow the machines from watery goo at scale. Make artificial muscles that are strong, fast, accurate, light and quiet.<p>Now that would be the stuff of science fiction brought to reality.
crdoconnor超过 6 年前
Robot automation will take 800M jobs, says consultancy typically brought in to reduce headcount.
jrs95超过 6 年前
A lot of people are into UBI as a solution to this, but I personally don&#x27;t think that will work. The social issues that would come from having that high of a level of unemployment, even with a UBI, would be enormous. I think it would be valuable to consider a more drastic departure from a capitalist system rather than applying yet another band-aid fix to it.
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FabianBeiner超过 6 年前
Getting replaced by a robot is a greater fear than I&#x27;ve ever anticipated. I&#x27;ve once build <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.replacedbyrobot.info&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.replacedbyrobot.info&#x2F;</a> for fun. It turns out, the basic version back then got visited a couple of hundred, if not thousand times per day. I&#x27;ve since then built a more useful interface, and the traffic just increases day by day. I&#x27;ve even got interviewed by Vice once about the page.
DeonPenny超过 6 年前
Yeh but it will help move production closer to home, so it won&#x27;t be as bad as most people think. Don&#x27;t realize a lot of the things that american companies build oversea wouldn&#x27;t need to be there if robots could do them. You&#x27;d also get faster deliveries and on-demand production.
monkeydust超过 6 年前
As someone who works in a product management role building automation software what I am observing is that automation is helping to automate tasks not jobs.<p>Jobs that humans do are being altered as a result focusing on more cognative and social tasks.<p>Retooling &#x2F; reskilling policies should be getting more attention.
Rexxar超过 6 年前
I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised automation has already destroyed 2 or 3 more jobs that there is inhabitants in industrial countries over the last century. What is important is the balance between creation and destruction.
mabbo超过 6 年前
The total world productivity will be up and the total human labor to achieve that level will be down. This <i>should</i> be a good thing! ... but we don&#x27;t share very well.<p>Capital is making more money than labor. The &#x27;hard working man&#x27; ethos makes less and less sense. You can&#x27;t work your way out of poverty anymore.<p>No sane person is arguing for full-blown communism here, but a shift towards a more socialist system is going to become the only way to keep society from breaking down. We need the benefits of this revolution to benefit all and not just those who were born wealthy.<p>And it&#x27;s going to be a very long road to get there, as political power today in most nations is most easily accessible to those with wealth, those who would lose out if such a shift were to take place.
craftinator超过 6 年前
Ah I can&#x27;t wait, I&#x27;m so excited for early retirement!!
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bedhead超过 6 年前
There are 3.5 million truckers in the US. Think about that.<p>Politically, I&#x27;m fairly conservative&#x2F;libertarian, and I generally accept the economic realities of things like creative destruction. And even with those overarching views, I am terrified of the social impact of autonomous vehicles.<p>When you take a step back, it is nothing short of disturbing how aggressively and proudly Google and Uber (et al) are pursuing the destruction of the livelihoods of those 3.5 million households in this country. Just a bunch of mostly honest, hard-working folks who live in the exurbs or rural towns, with absolutely no backup plan when a robotic truck either creates tremendous wage deflation or takes their job completely.<p>And for what? So we can all save a few cents at Target. So a couple billionaire founders can toss some more on the pile. So a handful of engineers can make more millions. So paper-pushing fund managers can make a few more bucks from their stock going up. It&#x27;s like watching a horror movie in slow motion.<p>Creative destruction has been a fact of life for centuries, but overall, societies have thrived. My sense - and I have no data to back this up - is that we are approaching a tipping point where the gains from technology are accelerating way beyond society&#x27;s ability to reallocate those resources to other productive places in the short and even medium-term. That steady-state of frictional unemployment caused by technology is about to be <i>majorly</i> upended, and it just scares me. Societal problems are going to get very, very bad.