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The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

255 点作者 lainon大约 6 年前

12 条评论

wazoox大约 6 年前
This made my day:<p>To be honest, the academic discussion doesn&#x27;t shed much light on the practical problem. Here&#x27;s an illustration: Some years ago I was trying to decide whether or not to move to Harvard from Stanford.I had bored my friends silly with endless discussion. Finally, one of them said, &quot;You&#x27;re one of our leading decision theorists. Maybe you should make a list of the costs and benefits and try to roughly calculate your expected utility. &quot;Without thinking, I blurted out, &quot;Come on, Sandy, this is serious.&quot;
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thisoneworks大约 6 年前
Thinking should be a time boxed activity, with time proportional to the priority of the thing at hand. As a classic overthinker I&#x27;ve realized my overthinking is a weird amalgamation of perfectionism and procrastination. That took me a long time to accept, since I&#x27;ve always rationalized my overthinking as ultimately a good thing. If you assume that action (instead of thinking) is the primary unit in the world, then you can see that thinking is just a tool which informs action.
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js8大约 6 年前
I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious!<p>So indeed, if you can&#x27;t decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.
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skizm大约 6 年前
Most decisions aren&#x27;t A or B, they&#x27;re I want A, but B is much safer&#x2F;easier&#x2F;etc. So the coin flip method (you&#x27;ll make up your mind while it is in the air) doesn&#x27;t help since you already know what you want. Pros and cons lists don&#x27;t help since you already know them. Probability multiplied by reward doesn&#x27;t help much, since you&#x27;ll really only make the decision once, not continuously.<p>The only sure fire thing I&#x27;ve found helps is you imagine the realistic worst possible case scenario if you decide on doing thing A (the thing you really want) and if you can live with that, do thing A.
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nathanasmith大约 6 年前
My problem with thinking too much is when I&#x27;m faced with a decision, I find I often have a preferred course of action already in mind and whether that course happens to be objectively better than the alternative is completely immaterial to my ability to think long and abstractly enough about it to reason myself into believing that it is. I have had to train myself to turn off this abstract thinking as necessary. The upshot is when I do, the actual correct answer to the situation often strongly presents itself and immediately seems obvious.
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norswap大约 6 年前
The conclusion is where the gold is at:<p>&gt; One of the most useful things to come out of mystudy is a collection of the rules of thumb my friends use in their decision making. For example, one of my Ph.D. advisers, Fred Mosteller, told me, “Other things being equal, finish the job that isnearest done.” A famous physicist offered this advice: “Don’t waste time on obscure fine pointsthat rarely occur.” I’ve been told that Albert Einstein displayed the following aphorism in his office: “Things that are difficult to do are beingdone from the wrong centers and are not worth doing.” Decision theorist I. J. Good writes, “The older we become, the more important it is to usewhat we know rather than learn more.” Galen offered this: “If a lot of smart people have thought about a problem [e.g., God’s existence, life on other planets] and disagree, then it can’t be decided.”<p>&gt; Whenever you’re called on to make up your mind, and you’re hampered by not having any,the best way to solve the dilemma, you’ll find, is simply by spinning a penny. No — not so that chance shall decide the affairwhile you’re passively standing there moping; but the moment the penny is up in the air, you suddenly know what you’re hoping.
mapcars大约 6 年前
Like we learn how to use our hands one should learn how to use our brains when needed, and when not needed how to put it down, that&#x27;s all.
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smallnamespace大约 6 年前
Is &#x27;thinking about thinking&#x27; correctly actually an unsolvable problem?<p>Let&#x27;s say I&#x27;m trying to do X.<p>- Level 0 might be: do the first thing that comes to mind<p>- Level 1 may be &#x27;consider your possible choices and do a cost-benefit analysis&#x27;<p>Most people would say that Level 1 is preferable, but only for &#x27;weighty&#x27; decisions where the cost of thinking is outweighed by the benefit of making a better decision. For example, nobody does rational deliberation for &#x27;should I brake at this red light?&#x27;<p>So in practice, we seem to do some level of rational metacognition that takes into account the cost of thinking about a problem.<p>What about level 3? Are there large classes of problems where it&#x27;s not really worth it to &#x27;think about whether to think&#x27; - you should <i>always</i> ponder them, or never? And what about levels beyond yet?
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mcguire大约 6 年前
&quot;<i>Whenever you’re called on to make up your mind,and you’re hampered by not having any,the best way to solve the dilemma, you’ll find,is simply by spinning a penny.No—not so that chance shall decide the affairwhile you’re passively standing there moping;but the moment the penny is up in the air,you suddenly know what you’re hoping.</i>&quot;<p>A friend introduced me to a related version of this that works pretty well: toss a coin, see what result comes out, and then decide if you are happy or disappointed. If you still don&#x27;t care, go with the coin. Or don&#x27;t; it doesn&#x27;t matter.
firstinstinct大约 6 年前
Related: Our first instinct is far too often wrong (finantial times, 10 May 2019, Tim harford, pay walled article).<p>Another related article: Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness Steven D. Levitt <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nber.org&#x2F;papers&#x2F;w22487" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nber.org&#x2F;papers&#x2F;w22487</a>
localhostdotdev大约 6 年前
oh nice, i didn&#x27;t know where the coin flipping quote came from: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikiquote.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Piet_Hein" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikiquote.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Piet_Hein</a>
throwayEngineer大约 6 年前
This is a very Academia driven problem.<p>They have been so detached from problem solving that they forget how to problem solve.<p>Modeling a human randomness with math didn&#x27;t give you perfect data and conclusions?<p>What was the original problem? To solve something unsolvable with our current understanding of biology?<p>Industry asks better questions and finds solutions. Academia waddles around in theoreticals, and makes minimal meaningful progress.<p>Edit, to clarify. Academia picks a unreal problem, and can&#x27;t find a logic driven solution. Industry picks real problems, and doesn&#x27;t make money unless they solve it. We should be learning to solve problems from Industry, not our underachieving professors.
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