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Ask HN: What framework do you use to predict the future of a technology?

4 点作者 pravj将近 6 年前
I have been trying to understand the way technologies progress forward and the increasing challenges, rejection, and adoption they experience in the journey.<p>I thought understanding the history of technology can provide answers to what might the future look like for a different technology moving through the &quot;hype curve&quot;. (inversion)<p>For example, the speech recognition technology is in the &quot;Plateau of Productivity&quot; phase currently of the &quot;hype curve&quot; [1]. Accessibility of big data first and then deep learning were the two major changing points in history to push the field forward.<p>How do you think about the future of different technologies? Will be helpful if you can point out to relevant resources that talk about history and future of them.<p>[1] http:&#x2F;&#x2F;k1.caict.ac.cn&#x2F;yjts&#x2F;qqzkgz&#x2F;zksl&#x2F;201808&#x2F;P020180814355000666438.pdf

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