Since web services are the reason d'etre of smartphones, there are inherently few switching costs for jumping between leading smartphone platforms and therefore none of the lock-in that lead to Windows' dominance.
One area where android is similar to windows is that it runs on several hardware platforms from several vendors, whereas apple has a single (or three: ipad/ipod/iphone) target platform.
Android cannot be the new "windows" because alot of decisions leading up to windows in it's current incarnation were driven by the anti-competitive nature of Microsoft. Android takes the best aspects of windows' business strategies and incorporates them in an open environment.<p>So I guess if you are saying android is the phone to run on a bunch of random hardware which will outsell apple, yes, android is the new windows of cellphones. In the end it's closer to a user-friendly linux.