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Tesla Q2 2019 Letter

121 点作者 quico将近 6 年前

15 条评论

jtchang将近 6 年前
Being able to test your code out in the real world and dark launch a feature gives Tesla a ridiculous advantage. No other company has the infrastructure to be able to do that. Plus they can even tell if the decision the neural net made was wrong because I assume even Tesla knows you got into an accident. And this over thousands of cars. The speed at which they are collecting data is unprecedented.
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flyGuyOnTheSly将近 6 年前
Judging by the nosedive that the stock price is taking in after hours trading (down over 12% from $264.88 at close an hour ago to $236 right now), the outlook of this letter isn't great.
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nisten将近 6 年前
In 2017 Intel acquired mobileye( the makers of the autopilot radar in the early Teslas), for 15.3 Billion. That begs the question, if Tesla were to sell their autopilot system tomorrow, , given it&#x27;s safety record, amount of training data, and new FPGA processor IP, how much would it be worth? 15, 20, 40?<p>This is why I find their delivery numbers completely and utterly irrelevant to company value. This is a just a technology company that has produced a great user experience and is now scaling it.<p>Their main bottleneck is battery production and they&#x27;re very competitive at it.<p>If the bottleneck was auto-manufacturing they would have no trouble raising enough investment to just buy out a car company.
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boldslogan将近 6 年前
anyone care to talk about this part &quot;This feature is currently operating in “shadow mode” in the fleet, which compares our software algorithm to real-world driver behavior across tens of millions of instances around the world.&quot;<p>that seems very juicy?<p>edit: it seems people put a disclaimer on their ownership of tesla stock on hn about tesla threads. i dont own any.
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danhak将近 6 年前
Looks like the cash situation is finally under control.<p>They generated over $600 million in FCF in Q2. Compare this to only $200 million by Ford over the same period, also announced today: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;s22.q4cdn.com&#x2F;857684434&#x2F;files&#x2F;doc_financials&#x2F;2019&#x2F;q2&#x2F;updated&#x2F;2Q19-Financial-Release.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;s22.q4cdn.com&#x2F;857684434&#x2F;files&#x2F;doc_financials&#x2F;2019&#x2F;q2...</a>
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Animats将近 6 年前
<i>&quot;GAAP net loss of $408M&quot;</i> - the number that matters.<p>Tesla isn&#x27;t doing that badly. But now that they have some production volume, they have to be evaluated as a car company, not a startup. Can they make lots of cars at a profit? They got the production quantity up by throwing people, money, and a big tent at the Fremont plant. That ran up the cost per car. Although it&#x27;s better than their previous state of low production with a full staff. Can they get to a smooth running production plant with labor hours per car comparable to Detroit? (About 30-50 labor hours per car is typical in the industry.)<p><i>&quot;Model 3 average selling price was stable at approximately $50,000.&quot;</i><p>That&#x27;s nice, but the Model 3 was supposed to be $35,000. Tesla has caught up with their backlog, and you can now buy a Tesla Model 3 off the lot, just like regular car dealers.[1] That&#x27;s good; they&#x27;re now like a normal car company. But it also means they&#x27;ve saturated the market at their high price point, which is about where BMW is.<p>They&#x27;re also at the point where all their models need a refresh or a replacement. Tesla is slow at new models compared to the competition.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.extremetech.com&#x2F;extreme&#x2F;289911-what-shortage-tesla-has-plenty-of-model-3s-on-sale-online-today" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.extremetech.com&#x2F;extreme&#x2F;289911-what-shortage-tes...</a>
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jaimex2将近 6 年前
Looking healthy to move along for Chinese factory, Model Y and pickup truck later this year.<p>I like that they don&#x27;t stop moving even if it scares a few investors with heavy capex spending on their next products.
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Despegar将近 6 年前
Tesla&#x27;s stock has massively under-performed over the past 5 years (will be up 8% over that period if the after hours price action holds). The opportunity cost of owning it has been huge while the rest of the market ripped up.
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justapassenger将近 6 年前
Most recent story of Tesla&#x27;s profitability was built around Musk&#x27;s manufacturing innovations, that will make Model 3 much cheaper to produce. Experts disagreed, got fired, and alien dreadnought continued. It was such a huge failure, that to this day, portion of Model 3 production is happening a tent. With forklifts, leaking roof and space-heaters.<p>Tesla now has new profitability story - Musk&#x27;s innovations in FSD, will make them a lot of money, and make cars appreciating assets. Experts disagreed, got fired, and FSD continues. Wonder how will that end?
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mettamage将近 6 年前
So can someone explain to my why the Tesla stock made a nose dive to about $170 and is now almost back to where it was 3 months ago?<p>I don&#x27;t understand how such huge volatility could happen assuming that the efficient market hypothesis is real.
eanzenberg将近 6 年前
Sidenote: I can&#x27;t stand the ipad in the middle of Tesla cars (and other carmakers who choose this path). I got a BMW because of the sheer usefulness of physical buttons while driving &#x2F; keeping eyes on the road.
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ianlevesque将近 6 年前
They jumped the shark with the Model 3, and I really wanted to like it.
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HereBeBeasties将近 6 年前
They&#x27;ve achieved a 0.5% increase in production volume in Q2, compared to Q4 2018, to 87,084 vehicles. I&#x27;d hardly call that &quot;rapid progress&quot;. For comparison, Toyota make around 2.2 million vehicles per quarter.<p>A more reasonable brand comparison might be Mercedes-Benz Cars, which made 575,639 vehicles in Q2. It&#x27;s quite impressive that Tesla have got to about 15% the volume that Merc do, but they&#x27;re hardly going to take over the world with that kind of growth rate.<p>IMO they should stop chasing volume sales of lower cost vehicles and concentrate on premium vehicles with higher margins. What&#x27;s the point of killing themselves trying to lift production numbers to try to make all the analysts who seem to be obsessed with that happy, which doesn&#x27;t yet seem to be working, if the margins aren&#x27;t worth bothering? It won&#x27;t end well.
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WheelsAtLarge将近 6 年前
I know at least one person that&#x27;s decided not to buy a Tesla simply because their future is so murky and is not sure if they will be around for repairs. That&#x27;s a problem they need to tackle now before it spirals out of control.<p>Also, it seems to me that Tesla should work with one of the big three automakers on manufacturing. Tesla has spent a lot of resources reinventing car manufacturing and yet they can&#x27;t produce a vehicle that meets their needs. They need to focus on the high tech aspects and leave the mundane manufacturing to experts.<p>At the very least, Musk should trust his manufacturing experts on how to produce a car rather than try to make every decision by himself. He&#x27;s a great marketer and should focus on that role and leave the rest to the experts.<p>Too bad they can&#x27;t lower the cost of batteries enough. If they did that, they could lower the price of the car to a point where it would be a no brainer to buy one.
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techntoke将近 6 年前
Here&#x27;s to hoping that they hire some creative talent to help make letters that don&#x27;t look like they are from the 90&#x27;s.
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