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Advice for a climate change apocalypse

99 点作者 rr-geil-j超过 5 年前

13 条评论

mooreds超过 5 年前
Loved the message. Just like you can&#x27;t run away from yourself (trust me), humanity can&#x27;t run away from its collective self.<p>My favorite book about this is Lucifer&#x27;s Hammer: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lucifer%27s_Hammer" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Lucifer%27s_Hammer</a><p>Not perfect but certainly echoes the article&#x27;s theme that we&#x27;ll still be in society, even after a catastrophe, and will have to work within it.
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notthemessiah超过 5 年前
John Baez&#x27;s blog has a series on how civilizations collapse, first looking at the Anasazi, and then how one might model it using agent-based modeling and also looking at general collapse through differential equations:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;01&#x2F;20&#x2F;anasazi-america-part-1&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;01&#x2F;20&#x2F;anasazi-amer...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;01&#x2F;24&#x2F;anasazi-america-part-2&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2013&#x2F;01&#x2F;24&#x2F;anasazi-amer...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;03&#x2F;25&#x2F;civilizational-collapse-part-3&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;03&#x2F;25&#x2F;civilization...</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;08&#x2F;26&#x2F;civilizational-collapse-part-4&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;08&#x2F;26&#x2F;civilization...</a><p>James Burke is a science historian and BBC documentarian, and in his first episode of &quot;Connections&quot; a series on the nature of innovation, he talks about how fragile our complex infrastructure can be, and, much like this article, how hopeless individualist survival skills would be once we &quot;leave our technological womb&quot;.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ</a><p>In his later series, After the Warming, a 1988 documentary which imagines what it would look like in 2050 if we failed to act on climate change (in which it predicted refugee crises, wars, hurricanes, mass flooding), and looks back on thousands of years of climate shaping civilizational rise and collapse, from the Ice Age to the Nabataeans to today and beyond. It gets most things scarily right, with the notable exception of failing to see Japanese economic bubble popping in 1991.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Qa4aWFDCMqQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=Qa4aWFDCMqQ</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=YxJLyPSRusc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=YxJLyPSRusc</a>
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Beltiras超过 5 年前
I&#x27;ve thought a bit about this and come to the conclusion that the best way to survive is not to have anything others would want. If you have nothing others want you will not be attacked for it and have to defend yourself. That will get you past the first wave of deaths: holding on to our old way of life thinking &#x27;property&#x27; is important. It&#x27;s best if you can actually walk to an area where there is protection from the elements, away from the masses of people fighting for the last scraps of loot remaining of the old world.<p>If you manage to live a year most of the original violence will have passed. You will need to start to build a life where you can make and store foodstuffs to survive through seasons where food is more scarce (I live on 66°N, winter would be harsh). Hopefully you will be in a small band of survivors that are pooling strengths to get by and can learn farming all over again.<p>If you do survive this period then on a timescale of decades small camps of survivors will be able to connect and start to build back up again.
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crazydoggers超过 5 年前
While I think the article is a little thin, it does scratch the surface that the hard part of civilization collapse is not about survival, but about how society will need to reorganize itself.<p>We take for granted at the moment how critical law and law enforcement is for the stability of our society, and the major reduction in violence, civilization has enjoyed. [1]<p>Evolution has favored an evolutionary stable strategy, basically a Nash equilibrium, between those who would exploit, those that are passive, and those that fight back when exploited. [2] A collapse of civilization would mean that as a society, we’ll have to recover and restore systems that allow us to cooperate and fend off those willing to exploit others for their own gain.<p>1. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nat...</a><p>2. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Evolutionarily_stable_strategy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Evolutionarily_stable_strate...</a>
kenforthewin超过 5 年前
I wish the author had delved more into how his studies of past civ collapse inform his predictions of climate-related collapse. Instead he encourages &quot;generosity, altruism, and cooperation&quot; like this is some sort of corporate retreat.
beat超过 5 年前
Something else to consider, that the article doesn&#x27;t really touch, is the pace of change. Even at global-disaster scale, climate change moves pretty slowly. The ocean may rise a couple of meters, but it&#x27;s not rising a couple of meters later this afternoon.<p>Interesting thing to think about... in the past century, Earth&#x27;s population has quadrupled, with most of that occurring along coastlines. That means we built enough housing in a century to accommodate four times as many people in those coastal cities. Why can&#x27;t we just keep building? Population growth has mostly leveled off (we&#x27;re looking at no more than 50% population increase over the next century, probably less), and we have much better tools now than we had then. If New Orleans floods, you don&#x27;t necessarily need to move to Kansas to escape it - and the mouth of the Mississippi will continue to be a vital trade corridor even if the oceans rise.<p>The changes are generational in timespan. Think that way.
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Bootvis超过 5 年前
Also check out this Bloomberg podcast with the author (currently it&#x27;s the first one in this overview):<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;podcasts&#x2F;odd_lots" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;podcasts&#x2F;odd_lots</a>
z3phyr超过 5 年前
Why is this flagged @dang? Am I missing something?
adrianN超过 5 年前
A good strategy is probably moving to a rich country now, before the unprecedented refugee crisis starts.
carapace超过 5 年前
<i>Post</i>-apocalyse could be fun. But why wait? You can move to Slab City if that&#x27;s your thing.<p>I play a game sometimes in my head. It&#x27;s a kind of speculative daydream. In this daydream, I&#x27;m sitting around a campfire with my band of fellow survivors. Things have calmed down and we&#x27;ve settled into a groove. The &quot;game&quot; has no name, but if it did it would be called &quot;nostagia&quot;. Everyone goes around the circle and says something they miss from the old civ that they took for granted:<p>&quot;Q-tips&quot;<p>&quot;Asprin&quot;<p>&quot;Fucking <i>morphine</i>&quot;<p>&quot;I miss my dentist.&quot;<p>The breakdown of civilization will be horrifying.<p>I have been a self-decribed &quot;Apocalyptic&quot; since sometime in my early teens. I took a look at what people were up to in re; technology and the environment and decided that we could kiss our asses good-bye in maybe fifty years. That was about thirty years ago and we are right on schedule.<p>The first problem is going to be water. Then food. There&#x27;s only about three days worth of food in a modern city at any given time. If the production and transportation system seriously breaks down for more than a week over a large enough area... Well, as the fellow from New Guinea said to the missionary, &quot;If God didn&#x27;t want us to eat people He wouldn&#x27;t have made us out of meat.&quot; Check your history books if you dare, but I don&#x27;t advise it unless you have a strong stomach. Heh.<p>Best advice to survive a serious breakdown of civilization: &quot;Live someplace three days farther than a hungry person can walk.&quot;<p>The <i>best</i> time to prepare for this bleak future is now, before it happens. If you&#x27;re not prepared to move to the middle of nowhere and set up a self-sufficient homestead then you had better get serious about fixing our global problems.<p>This is where &quot;it will be empathy, generosity, and courage that we need to survive. Kindness and fairness will be more valuable than any survival skill. Then as now, social and leadership skills will be valued. We will have to work together. We will have to grow food, educate ourselves, and give people a reason to persevere. The needs will be enormous, and we cannot run away from that. Humans evolved attributes such as generosity, altruism, and cooperation because we need them to survive. Armed with those skills, we will turn towards the problem, not away from it. We will face the need, and we will have to solve it together. That is the only option. That’s what survival looks like.&quot;<p>It&#x27;s this moment right now. You&#x27;re living it. <i>This</i> is what the breakdown of civilization looks and feels like. Where are the insects? Where are the birds? The weather is <i>weird</i>. There are <i>strange signs</i> in the Heavens. Someone is trying to tell you something.<p>We have solutions.<p>Permaculture and other kinds of applied ecology can save our bacon: it&#x27;s fun and easy to get back in touch with Nature (and she&#x27;s delighted to have you back!) Things like the &quot;Core Transformation Process&quot; are algorithms for overcoming our problems and baggage. It&#x27;s there, it works. Or just &quot;Non-Violent Communication&quot;, etc. Or find Jesus and live up to His expectations.<p>Change your life, start with your diet, it&#x27;s healthy to eat food grown in healthy ecosystems: foster some. We can do this, &quot;we have the technology&quot;, it&#x27;s up to us.
kabdib超过 5 年前
&quot;Ten across, 7 letters, synonym for &#x27;Prepper&#x27;&quot;.<p>&quot;Refugee.&quot;<p>&quot;That works.&quot;
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tonytheliger超过 5 年前
This guy says &quot;I&quot; too much.
charliesharding超过 5 年前
&quot;No tragic yet convenient event will allow us to discard our complex, messy, and ever-changing social reality and live out our rugged individualistic fantasy.&quot;<p>&quot;...it will be empathy, generosity, and courage that we need to survive. Kindness and fairness will be more valuable than any survival skill&quot;<p>If you&#x27;re interested in a concrete discussion of what a collapse may look like this is not for you. He says it won&#x27;t hurt to know survival skills and that mainly you should learn to be kind (as if you missed that lesson in pre-k). One thing is for certain; he&#x27;s definitely a paragon of morality. I mean.. you can&#x27;t write an article like that without being totally rock solid.