Gwern on the luck of the last mover:<p>"Launching too early means failure, but being conservative & launching later is just as bad because regardless of forecasting, a good idea will draw overly-optimistic researchers or entrepreneurs to it like moths to a flame: all get immolated but the one with the dumb luck to kiss the flame at the perfect instant, who then wins everything, at which point everyone can see that the optimal time is past."<p>Robotics has been a money pit for startups and corporations for a long time. Think of the billions Toytoa has spent on home robotics research, to little avail.<p>But at some point it won't be. Some entity will "kiss the flame" at the right movement. The wealth they create will be beyond any company ever, by an almost incomparable margin.