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Cognitive bias: Ambiguity effect

5 点作者 mike_esspe超过 14 年前

1 comment

dedward超过 14 年前
Interesting psychologically - but given the example in the wikipedia article, the effect at work here that causes us to choose Red rather than Black or White, while not a better choice, as we may think it is due to the effect, is also not a worse choice. Statistically the odds are the same - so from a game theory point of view, the Red choice is just fine.<p>Someone with a psychological liking for gambling might actually take one of the other two options precisely because the choice is ambiguous, and they perceive it to be more of a gamble. "Hey.. the black or white ones COULD have an almost 2/3 shot at winning... so they'll focus on that and take those just for the thrill." I wonder if any studies have been done to that effect?