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The new dot com bubble is here: it’s called online advertising

43 点作者 ericzawo超过 5 年前

12 条评论

kuharich超过 5 年前
Prior discussion: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21465873" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=21465873</a>
iaabtpbtpnn超过 5 年前
Web advertising always seemed like a losing proposition to me from a technical standpoint. Imagine if, instead of an MPEG stream, the Super Bowl was delivered to your television with instructions like &quot;draw the field, draw the players, now put this ad here, that ad there...&quot;, and you could easily program your TV to ignore all instructions related to ads, while perfectly preserving the game content you came for. Wouldn&#x27;t advertisers be losing their minds? And yet this is exactly the situation with your Web browser. Even applications that push the traditional boundaries of the Web seem easily defeated... for example, with my very basic ad blocking setup (just uBlock Origin, nothing fancy, anyone could get this setup in minutes), I have never seen an ad on YouTube, not once. So why does YouTube make money exactly?
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tiborsaas超过 5 年前
It maybe doesn&#x27;t warrant a full AskHN, but have you run a successful, small scale (&lt; $1000) ad campaign? What worked and what didn&#x27;t?<p>I don&#x27;t think it&#x27;s a bubble especially when you play with your own money and you have to be very careful of the keywords and targeting settings.
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username90超过 5 年前
&gt; It is in the best interest of a firm like eBay to know whether its campaigns are profitable, but not so for eBay’s marketing department.<p>Isn&#x27;t this the case for basically every B2B product? The goal was always to make the purchasing manager look good, not to actually help the other company. So I don&#x27;t see how this is proof of a bubble, you could say the same thing about McKinsey consultants or cloud computing.
thorwasdfasdf超过 5 年前
i know someone working for brand advertisement at Nike. those big brand advertisers don&#x27;t actually have hard proof that it&#x27;s working. all they can do is point to a few case studies that have been referenced over and over again.<p>There is a time and place for ads. And some ads, definately do work. For example, in the gaming industry, you used to be able to track exactly how many users your game acquired based on what ad, allowing you to calculate ROI.<p>Now, if you look at all the biggest ad spenders on facebook, take a look and see which one is more: the big brand advertisers (where ROI is not calculated), vs gaming companies and other businesses that can calculate ROI. You&#x27;ll see, the market for ads and thus the price paid for ads, is dominated by non-ROI calculated Ad spend. That certainly seems like a bubble to me. and, let&#x27;s not forget, millenials aren&#x27;t attached to brands to the same degree that previous generations were.
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jrockway超过 5 年前
I think advertising will always be something that people spend money on. The reality is that people don&#x27;t care what specific product they buy when they need to buy a class of product. What&#x27;s your favorite brand of toilet paper or toothpaste or whole wheat flour? You probably have no preference; so if advertisers spend money on putting their product first in the Amazon results or at eye level in the grocery store, you will probably buy that one. It matters to them, but doesn&#x27;t matter to you. And for that reason, they will always spend money on it.<p>There are also things that I buy where I do have a preference, but could be persuaded to try something else. I have particular brands of t-shirts, underwear, socks, etc. that I re-up on from time to time, but if some evidence arrives &quot;this is better&quot; I would consider buying it.<p>Most of the ads I see on the Internet are kind of a waste, though. Here are some ads I remember from the New York Times, which is basically the only platform that I don&#x27;t block ads on:<p>1) Delta has a lot of flights to the west coast from New York. I don&#x27;t really care, I have 700,000 miles on American and unless you are going to sell me a business class seat for economy prices, I&#x27;m not going to try your product. Even though your ad literally takes up my entire screen. I&#x27;m sure you paid a lot for that, but it means nothing to me. I am aware that Delta as a company exists. Because of my awareness, I choose not to buy your product ;)<p>2) I could buy a wide variety of $3MM condos throughout the New York area. If I had $3MM, I would. I don&#x27;t, though, so you wasted your ad money again.<p>3) Luxury watches are a thing I could buy; I have seen ads from both Omega and Rolex. This is actually relevant to my interests, but I don&#x27;t see myself ever buying a Rolex (too many people that aren&#x27;t interested in watches have them); a Grand Seiko will be next. If I ever feel like spending $6000 on something I don&#x27;t need, which isn&#x27;t really my style.<p>4) Today, the only ad I&#x27;m getting is one for &quot;SAS for AI&quot;. If I needed AI, I would probably write it myself. Somehow that sounds easier than talking to their sales team and sorting through their probably incorrect documentation. (If you wanted to sell that to me, tell me how much it costs, and show me how good the documentation is. Instead, all they are showing is a stock photo of some guy with glasses. He has glasses so he must be smart! Wowie!)<p>Anyway... my point is that advertising will always exist, but I do agree that a lot of money is being wasted.
partiallypro超过 5 年前
Online advertising isn&#x27;t a bubble, bid prices might be a bubble, but as a practice itself it&#x27;s not. You have to show all of your advertising customers good ROI or they aren&#x27;t going to spend. This isn&#x27;t true of others like print advertising, ota, etc. If you aren&#x27;t making your customers money...they are going to pull their spend. It&#x27;s as simple as that.
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karmakaze超过 5 年前
&gt; &quot;Beliefs formed on insufficient evidence seem tough to move,&quot; Rao wrote.<p>That there&#x27;s a gem--would have and will save me much futile debating.
tdy721超过 5 年前
Advertising is not an asset, it’s never a direct investment; It can’t be resold. Prices are too high? Maybe, a bubble? No...
nartz超过 5 年前
OPINION: This is just propoganda - its not a bubble - its just negative press around tech companies - not helpful.
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PaulHoule超过 5 年前
If online advertising isn&#x27;t worth the spend, it seems certain that legacy advertising wasn&#x27;t worth the spend. People just couldn&#x27;t prove it.<p>That would mean that legacy TV, Newspapers, etc. were all a bubble too.
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jjohansson超过 5 年前
The author of that article profoundly misunderstands online advertising. At best, he grossly misinterpreted statements made by his sources.