The problem here is simple: The people buying pick-axes are much smaller than the people buying gold. If there are 1000 people buying gold, there are 100 people mining for gold, and 10 people selling pickaxes. So the pick-axe market is quickly going to be dominated by someone who executes well and can offer the best pick-axes at prices less than what anyone else can compete with.<p>It's like frameworks - only a few rise to prominence, and that's because they are constantly developed, well marketed, etc. There is little space for a lot of choice in the tools market. The winners take all.<p>In the consumer market, however, even if you don't make a blow-out hit, your chance of getting by are much bigger. Even if you find a little gold, you can always sell it off and survive. But if you're selling pick-axes and they are lower quality and more expensive than the axes of the other established players, you'll not sell anything and die quickly.<p>In both cases it just comes down to who is smarter and faster and can better manage their finances to expand wisely. Both the pick-axe business and the gold business need proper intelligence and good business sense, and those who can bring both will be successful in either business.<p>Another consideration is this: It's easy to find gold. It's not easy to sell pick-axes. For pick-axes you need a supply chain, a cheap source, a marketing strategy. Gold panning requires a pan and some luck. The people who go for the Gold rush are normal people hoping to get lucky. They lack the skills to actually produce and sell jeans. Even if they tried, most of them would not be able to sell pick-axes.<p>So you can't really advice them to go sell pick-axes, as that is a more skilled business than panning for Gold.