I find a related article <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/how-to-tell-whats-really-happening-with-the-wuhan-virus/" rel="nofollow">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/how-to-tell-whats-reall...</a> much more interesting, it talks about the political (and social) context of this epedimic.<p>This bit, if correct, is the biggest "oh shit" part...<p>> Is the quarantine working?<p>> It’s too soon to tell, but quite probably not. The confirmed numbers may be just a fraction of the real total of infected victims, with many not yet diagnosed or even showing symptoms. But the biggest problem is that the long incubation period means hundreds of thousands of people left Wuhan long before the virus was seen as a major problem—especially as the Lunar New Year, when hundreds of millions of people return to their families across China, was coming up. A lot now depends on where they ended up. The constant expansion of the quarantine zone, which now covers a huge chunk of the central Chinese province of Hubei, suggests that local transmission may have been fierce and fast, outrunning the authorities. Modeling by foreign scientists is producing disturbing results — 250,000 or more infected inside Wuhan and large outbreaks elsewhere, with 60 percent or more of possible transmissions needing to be blocked to contain the outbreak.