Nokia Plan B

I did a bunch of work with Nokia back when I was working at Orange. We had a project to build push to talk software on Series 60 phones. Besides the idea that push to talk is a horrible idea, my job was to work with Nokia to make sure the software worked properly. We had some lower level software from our hardware provider (Kodiak Networks) and some UI code that we had built ourselves.<p>As these projects tend to go, things didn't go well. due to various issues in the Nokia closed source software layer there were a number of bugs we (Orange &#38; Kodiak) couldn't fix. We decided to fly to Tampere (one of Nokia's R&#38;D locations) to fix the problem.<p>Tampere is a lovely place to eat Reindeer. However, not <i>once</i> did I meet an engineer who could get shit done. Not once - Nokia never paired us with a serious developer who could even attempt to fix issues in their code. They surrounded us with product manager wankers and threw in a 22 year old engineer who wasn't able to make much progress debugging the problem. The Kodiak engineer was all ready to attack the problem with a dev board and a JTAG but no one would let us in the lab. What a clusterf<i>ck. Apparently a good bit of the S60 development wasn't even done in Tampere (or Finland). I think it might have been done in Japan. I think these sort of issues are what the author of the article alluded to regarding distributed development teams.<p>Perhaps I only saw a small slice of the Nokia culture. But it was </i>really* bad.<p>I'm glad the guys behind nokiaplanb.com are passionate about fixing Nokia. Much as I think the M$ alliance is a waste of time, I admire Elop's bold actions. I can't see continued development of MeeGo as useful. What I have seen to date has been unimpressive and late. Additionally -why not just use Android as the base OS and innovate on top of it?

<i>MeeGo smartphones and tablet devices will offer overwhelmingly superior experiences and applications than iOS and Android based competitor products</i><p>That is one bold statement. I don't know if I'd bet the company's success on a claim like that.

I know they are saying it's coming soon, but this is really missing 9 bios. You have a definitive plan for what you'll do if elected to the <i></i>Board of Directors<i></i>, which is a great start. But writing an open letter, asking for something so serious, without a paragraph-long bio on each one of you is crazies in my book.

I think a couple of things are obvious, from knowing some Nokia employees:<p>a) These 9 are young, and likely Finns — who are generally proud people and who are guarded against outsiders (like Elop)<p>b) They are software developers. Most of their Plan B focuses heavily on Meego and keeping development and R&#38;D in-house. With Meego 'out' (or close to it) and WP7 in, software development resources at Nokia are likely to be slashed, and so of course they'd want to contest the decision.<p>The biggest problem I have with their plan though, is this:<p>&#62; Return the company to a strategy that seeks high growth and high profit margins through innovation and overwhelmingly superior products with unrivaled user experience.<p>Return? Nokia &#38; Symbian might sell a ton of phones in the global market, but they certainly haven't had high margins nor growth over the last few years. They can't 'return' to the way things were, because that strategy is no longer viable in today's market. To carry on as if Apple &#38; Google aren't kicking your ass is a sure-fire way to lose everything.

Plan B: Fire a couple of execs and keep following the strategy that got us to this point.

Assuming this is genuine, it is too little too late. Nokia needed someone to come and say this before the decided to jump ship.<p>Its staggering to think of how many resources nokia have, and how little and slowly they've innovated. Nokia has been falling behind for a long time. One thing I always found disheartening was their desire to compete against themselves, and ignore others, as illustrated by them releasing an older version of symbian for their business phones, while using the new symbian for their media phones, but it seemed there was no place to get 'the best' nokia. It was always a choice, but one that didn't seem to have an easily identifiable consumer flagship. Just N's and E's and everything in between.

I think the authors are underestimating the challenges of commercializing and then gaining market share with the MeeGo platform.<p>First, there is a question of development and time to market. By the time Nokia launches MeeGo and handsets, Android, iOS, and others (WP7, RIM, Palm) will be further entrenched in the market (e.g., market share, brand, hardware partners). Second, there is the fundamental issue that succeeding with MeeGo hinges not only on the OS but also on a thriving application market. Because of the application markets, there are strong network effects with mobile platforms. These network effects make it very difficult for a new platform to break into the space.<p>To complement investments in MeeGo and WP7 for the smartphone market and Symbian for the feature phone market, Nokia should immediately invest in an Android strategy as a fail-safe. I understand this conflicts with Nokia's historical strategy of controlling both software and hardware, but it's quite possible that Android will eventually emerge as the winner-take-all platform in smartphones, aside from Apple/iOS and several niche platforms. If this were to happen, Nokia's singular bet on MeeGo (or WP7) may destabilize the entire company.<p>In short, I propose that Nokia pursue a four-pronged strategy, pushing forward with MeeGo, WP7, Symbian, and Android -- Symbian for feature phones, which still account for roughly 80% of the worldwide mobile phone market, and MeeGo, WP7, and Android for the smartphone market. As uncertainty is reduced over time regarding 1) the potential of each of the smartphone platforms and 2) the pace at which geographic markets are shifting away from feature phones to smartphones, Nokia can appropriately adjust its investments. By making investments in each area, and adjusting the relative amounts over time, Nokia can better ensure its survival and prosperity despite the quickly evolving mobile phone market.

I don't own any shares in Nokia, I have never nor likely will ever own a Nokia phone, and I don't have any real insight into the nuances of the situation.<p>But as an avid spectator of the evolving mobile platform "war", this sort of coup d'état would be amazing to witness from the sidelines, no matter the outcome. Therefore, and for no greater reason, I really hope this goes through.

I think people are forgetting that Nokia _did_ make a very innovative platform back in 2005 with Maemo at the GTK-based Hildon GUI. If they hadn't stopped innovating and had gotten others on board except for Intel, that platform could have been Android today.<p>It's true that they managed to kill it through sheer incompetence, including alienating a lot of first adopters by discontinuing product support for the internet tablets. But there's obviously brilliant people at Nokia, just like there were brilliant people at Apple before Steve Jobs.<p>Now, if Apple had ditched MacOS when Steve returned instead of using NextStep, and instead went with Windows, and shipped a WP7 phone instead of a phone with OSX, where would they be today? They _might_ have had the iTunes ecosystem, if Microsoft would have allowed it. Their "differentiating features" would be at the mercy of Microsoft and their strategic plans.<p>I guess people are right that you need an app ecosystem to compete in the smartphone market today. But the iPhone sold like hotcakes for more than a year before it had apps. If Nokia made a phone that users really wanted, I think the app ecosystem would have followed. Instead, they're using their huge market presence to give Microsofts platform the same boost.

Supposing they did get elected, I would expect they would cost Nokia a <i>lot</i> of money, possibly ultimately bankrupting the company, from litigation MS would inevitably bring and probably win. It would be a huge embarrassment to WP7 and MS if Nokia backed out, and if there's any way MS can swing damages for that kind of thing given their contract with Nokia, and I'm sure there is, they will definitely do so. I think that the ship has sailed and they're stuck with WP7 for the term of the exclusivity arrangement.<p>If these guys want to make Meego the dominant smartphone platform, they're going to have to do it with something besides Nokia.

<a href="http://nokiaplanc.com/" rel="nofollow">http://nokiaplanc.com/</a> is up :)<p>No affiliation, but I think it's funny.<p>(For those who don't get it, Nokia was originally a rubber goods manufacturer)

We are seeing the beginning of the commoditization of the smart phone industry. Smart phones will become ubiquitous and intense competition among handset manufacturers will erode profit margins.<p>While I admire the passion that fueled this letter, their goal to "offer overwhelmingly superior experiences" seems foolishly optimistic. How will Nokia differentiate from the plethora of Android derivatives, iOS, WP7, Web OS, and Blackberry?

I have an idea, startups.<p>Have some former Nokia lead engineers and managers, start working on that plan.<p>Have some other managers and engineers work on the Android plan.<p>Have some others compete with Nokia to make better WP7 phones.<p>Gets rid of 100 layers of management, etc.

I don't think smartphones can win without apps, and the OS market is getting pretty saturated. If iOS, Android, WebOS, and WP7 all have more users, when am I ever going to get around to writing MeeGo apps?

If they had a clue based on modern software practices, they would <i>make it easy to support them</i>.<p>From the bottom of the AGM questions page:<p><i>Who has the right to participate in the AGM 2011 and what is the last day to buy shares if I want the right to attend and vote in the AGM? Each shareholder, who is registered on April 19, 2011 in the Register of Shareholders of the Company, has the right to participate in the Annual General Meeting. A shareholder, whose shares are registered on his/her Finnish book-entry account, is registered in the Register of Shareholders of the Company. A shareholder, who wishes to participate in the Annual General Meeting, may register for the Meeting by giving a prior notice of participation no later than on April 27, 2011 at 4:00 p.m. (Finnish time) by which time the registration needs to arrive in the Company.</i> - <a href="http://www.nokia.com/agm/2011/in-english/questions-and-answers" rel="nofollow">http://www.nokia.com/agm/2011/in-english/questions-and-answe...</a><p>Although their plan is not in the list of proposals. How does it work? 1 vote per share or 1 per shareholder? Can I buy 1 share (which stock name on which exchange?) and support them? If not, and only big shareholders count, why the twitter popularity campaign?<p>What specific goal(s) do they have (how many people, doing what?)

I like their developer plan. Focus on two areas of main development and eliminate a lot of the waste on the PM/Manager level.

I think their biggest challenge with going down the MeeGo route would be acquiring the kind of App ecosystem that iOS and Android have. I reckon their best bet would be to implement something like Alien Dalvik[1] to allow very easy porting of existing Android apps to MeeGo, and make their 'app store' as seamlessly alike to iOS and Android's (including working with top app developers to encourage them to bring over the most desirable apps).<p>Once they can be seen as having the same big name apps as the other two, I think MeeGo has much more of a chance of being competitive, rather than being a 'third world country' of a platform.<p>[1] <a href="http://www.allaboutmeego.com/news/item/12571_Alien_Dalvik_hopes_to_bring_An.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.allaboutmeego.com/news/item/12571_Alien_Dalvik_ho...</a>

I think WP7 + Nokia is a great move. Nokia makes great hardware and Microsoft makes great software and has a HUGE developer base.<p>I have switched from iPhone to WP7 after 3+ years and I am really happy with it. I do miss some of the apps and games but love other features that make up for it.<p>Hate Microsoft all you want but they have made great software (and also bad).<p>Great = win7, wp7, zune, visual studio, expression suite, office suite, sql server.<p>Bad = well you all know the list: IE8,7,6,5,etc..., hotmail, windows me and a ton of others that I am too lazy to list.<p>If history is any indication, Microsoft will eventually dominate the mobile marketplace or at least be a very close second.

I give Nokia Plan B a solid D- for too little too late. MeeGo got a horrible reception today by Intel (<a href="http://www.slashgear.com/meego-preview-at-mwc-2011-disappoints-14133583/" rel="nofollow">http://www.slashgear.com/meego-preview-at-mwc-2011-disappoin...</a>) and it's obvious why Nokia abandoned it at this point, even for a bad choice like Win Mobile 7...what other choice did they have? Symbian? Bleeding market share like gutted cow. Android? Can't differentiate in that space.<p>So to hear these 9 disgruntled folks say they're going to stick with a bad plan and make it happen sounds like lunacy to me.

I think a quote by Henry Ford sums up the the whole Plan B and their approach.<p>"You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do." ~ Henry Ford

<i>Increase the lifespan of Symbian to a minimum of 5 years</i><p>Glad you're not going to any shareholder meetings of companies I own shares in...

Their statement sounds like ones that come out of politicians. That can only end well...<p>I was watching some meego videos on youtube, it does not look that impressive and launching the phone usually takes a full minute. Whats up with that. Its an early build i guess, but as software ages, it generally gets more bloated meaning even slower.

Not all top talent is young...

I like the "make Nokia leaner" part. But I don't think they are in touch very well with the marketplace. Personally.<p>I'm considering putting together some fun and easy mobile games for some mobile device in 2H 2011. I can select iPhone, Android, or, I guess, WP7.<p>I'm looking for a platform that has these features:<p>* Nearly free to register and start developing * Provides app store &#38; DRM mechanism * Doesn't eat too many profits. * Ideally, lets me program <i>very</i> fast, think Ruby on Rails or similar framework.<p>Okay, so that doesn't exist as far as I know. If Nokia can reboot to provide the above - then they can probably provide a fourth option.<p>Nothing I've read so far indicates that they are going to roll that route.

Plan B is the dream of what Nokia could have been. Unfortunately it should have been enacted over 5 years ago.<p>It's too late for such a strategy now - by the time they delivered on their promises, the competition would completely eat their lunch.

Hmm, usually shareholders don't run the company. They own it. Stuff like choosing the tools, organization of R&#38;D department and so on should be in the hands of the management. That's why you pay them.

Plan B? Not Really. More like a wish-list.

Long ago (~2002) when I lived in Beijing, a vendor at the city's Silk Market had Nokia-brand socks on offer. I suspected they were fakes. The Marlboro-brand shirts were decent, though...

Actually I think Meego does not have a chance because of C++. It is Meego's main fault. Qt is a great framework, but that won't help if you force programmers to use languages from the stone age. Anyone who wants to establish a new platform should make it at least as easy to develop for as Android. And I also doubt that you can catch up with other OSes while using a less productive development environment.<p>On the other hand, I never expected Objective C to be as successful...

Wow! Who are these guys? What do they know about building a mobile ecosystem? Young how young? Looks to me like a bunch of kids who are scared to put their name out ..

1. They are right regarding bureaucracy reduction and sane R&#38;D management. They should migrate all their R&#38;D to Silicon Valley and maybe Israel.<p>2. The simplest solution to SW is to be OS-agnostic. Offer the same phone model with different preinstalled OS choices. In the same way as you offer it with different colors or panels.<p>Hell, let users change OS or use OS vrtualization, like one OS for Work (WP7) and an other for Home (Android) with two different numbers.

Well all you want is Nokia's $billion to spend however you want and at the end of the day if you couldn't make it you'll just stand up dust your hands and move on. if the Plan is so good you can take MeeGo which is open source or heck even Android and make the best phone/OS/EcoSystem out there surely you wouldn't have any problem attracting VC funding would you?

Looks like a good start, but going with MeeGo is a fail in my book. Intel and Nokia should throw their weight behind Android and focus on making the best, fastest Android phone, with better features than anyone else.

Maybe if they leave things alone Nokia might just survive. If they do whats in that list, they wont be shareholders or directors for long. Nokia fanboys need to realise that they are on a downhill slope right now, and if they continue on that path Apple and Android will bury them and Microsoft. I have owned Nokia phones from Australia's GSM introduction until last year when the lack of Nokia's software capability, in this country at least, forced my hand to the iPhone. Id give anything to go back to Nokia's quality hardware if it had a decent OS. Windows Phone 7 is a really nice OS, but for now is on some of the shittiest phones I have seen. Nokia + Microsoft should hopefully make a really nice bit of gear.

Nokia has the engineering/intellectual manpower to turn MeeGo into a diamond. Currently, we have 2 solid contenders in the mobile market - Android, which is encumbered by lawsuits from a 750 lbs gorilla (never mind the 500 lbs) Oracle, and iOS, which is plagued by the departure of its iconic founder, Steve Jobs, whose presence and vision is what made Apple's redemption possible. Steve may be with us for some time longer, but eventually he will either retire or pass, in which case, doubts remain about whether Apple can maintain its innovative/technical edge.<p>The good thing about Linux is it is owned by no one, yet it is above everyone else. This is good for _you_, all of the posters here, who own a mobile phone/device/PDA/tablet/etc.<p>Mark Shuttleworth and Canonical has jumped on the Ubuntu on Wayland wagon too - and guess what MeeGo is based on? Yep - Wayland. It will breathe new life into Linux by giving a low-level, efficient display server that will supplant X windows, and establish a new legacy for the next 10-20 years of Linux being the premier mobile/desktop/server OS.<p>THAT is where you want to be going - into a future where no one owns the operating system, and it has become a commodity, and it has a solid GUI, much like OS X (or Windows, let's be honest, which has a top notch GUI), and a gazillion C++ or Java or whichever applications on it.<p>If Nokia Plan B happens, which I have no doubt it will, Nokia can succeed where Microsoft continues to fail - to recapture the hearts of developers by giving them C++, Java, Objective-C - any language, available on the mobile phone/tablets.<p>MeeGo is going to provide the default GUI shell for most if not all of Nokia's phones, but they can create a platform that is welcoming to ALL developers of all facets with knowledge of all languages, by leaving room for this on the MeeGo tablet.<p>There's no technical difficulty in being able to run either DalvikVM or native C++ or Objective C or heck, even Python or JAva apps on a MeeGo/Linux platform - it can all be designed in such a way where it supports both.<p>My point is, by providing the freedom for devs to do what they do best, on an OSS platform, Linux, and giving them a top-notch GUI API (Qt) w/bindings for various languages (dynamic ones for rapid dev), they can rise into a very dominant position in the next 5-10 years, and be a worthy competitor, and perhaps even carry the torch of iOS and Android, if the other two come to a sudden death because of lawsuits or health problems of its founders.<p>I am _super_ excited and thrilled that Nokia wants to make MeeGo its top platform, and in my view, you ought to be too.

Interesting that they see outsourcing and distributed development as bureaucratic and inefficient. I wonder if this sentiment is becoming more common in the industry.

I agree with all points, except one, spend half resources in meego and the other half in android, just to be sure.

"We're <i>young</i> shareholders, and our plan is...get this...<i>young</i> software developers."<p>Riiiight...

Would it really be possible to cancel the deal without getting sued by Microsoft?

young chaps calling for a revolution. Not even listing credentials. This is not going any where.

Do they have a chance?

<i>Increase the lifespan of Symbian to a minimum of 5 years. Reap the profits of the existing market share and consumer preference that Symbian already enjoys in Europe and Asia.</i><p>Delusional.<p><i>Transition to an R&#38;D setup where 90% of all Nokia R&#38;D takes place in only two geographical locations. One of them will be in Finland and the other will be defined later.</i><p><i>actively visit top universities worldwide to screen and and invite top students for interviews in Nokia R&#38;D locations.</i><p>That's a lot of long-distance flights to Finland.

I got sort of an open question: Is there a platform independent API for development for WP7, iPhone and Android? It'd be great to write for one idealized target and have it run on all three ... or more if they make serious inroads.