Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS

I have serious doubt on the death count.<p>According to the numbers I got from <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.qq.com&#x2F;zt2020&#x2F;page&#x2F;feiyan.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.qq.com&#x2F;zt2020&#x2F;page&#x2F;feiyan.htm</a> now:<p>Death rate in Hubei province is 780&#x2F;27100 = 2.88%<p>Death rate in all the other provinces combined is 32&#x2F;10127 = 0.32%<p>So the death rate in Hubei is 9 times of other provinces. Is this really possible? ZheJiang province has 1075 confirmed cases now, but still 0 death count. Seriously? Hong Kong only has 26 confirmed cases, but already has 1 death count.<p>For SARS, China has a 6.6%, much lower than other countries. For example, Hong Kong has a death rate of 17%. (See <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...</a> )<p>Do international researchers use China&#x27;s officially reported count in their modeling?

People are modeling the disease and thinking it will peak in a few weeks. I wonder how accurate such a model is if you have no idea how many people actually have the disease but have not been counted. The number of clusters of people with the virus are expanding (like the ski chalet in France). Could they create new expansions we aren&#x27;t able to know yet?

It looks like the course of disease progression could be unpredictable, with patients who intially seemed to not have too harsh a case of the disease taking sudden turns for the worse after days or even a week of mild symptoms. 10% of patients having abnormal initial symptoms would also make control of the disease a lot harder if 10% of people escape your screens.<p>Source: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;02&#x2F;07&#x2F;health&#x2F;coronavirus-patients.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;02&#x2F;07&#x2F;health&#x2F;coronavirus-patien...</a>

I’m still wondering if the Mobile World Congress will get canceled because of this. 5 companies pulled out already. Gsma minimizes the impact and consequences, but think about this: what if one single person is found positive? How would they manage the quarantine of the tens of thousand of attendees? If you were Barcelona’s mayor what would you do? Prioritize public safety and risking the bankruptcy of the event organizers, or let everything happen risking a health crisis? Hard decisions...

Official death toll. Part of me, and a growing number of people online, bet it&#x27;s in the thousands, and it&#x27;s being swept under the rug.

Just curious, how does it compare to H1N1 currently? Think it will be more or less contained?

New cases seem to be going down <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;coronavirus-cases&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;coronavirus-cases&#x2F;</a>

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What&#x27;s the R0 value?

Not to downplay the impact of the Coronavirus or it’s victims, but here is a bit of context:<p>In roughly the same timeframe in the US, influenza and pneumonia has killed roughly 10,000 people, and has a mortality rate of 7.1%. The epidemic level starts at 7.2%<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;flu&#x2F;weekly&#x2F;index.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;flu&#x2F;weekly&#x2F;index.htm</a><p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;abcnews.go.com&#x2F;Health&#x2F;1300-people-died-flu-year&#x2F;story?id=67754182" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;abcnews.go.com&#x2F;Health&#x2F;1300-people-died-flu-year&#x2F;stor...</a>

From what I have seen, the daily death toll is doubling every 5 days or so.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;coronavirus-death-toll&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.worldometers.info&#x2F;coronavirus&#x2F;coronavirus-death-...</a><p>I don’t know how long that can continue but at that rate it won’t be more than a couple of months before thousands are dying per day...<p>Edit: since it takes 2 to 3 weeks to die from it, we really should be comparing the deaths now to the cases two weeks ago, which gives a much much higher mortality rate than is currently reported — maybe as high as 20%<p>Based on how fast it spread, I definitely expect there to be ~300 people dying per day by next week, so you’re taking a SARS equivalent every 2 or 3 days.