Gray Goo

Gray goo is only an existential threat to civilization if you have <i>magical</i> nanomachines that can metabolize useful energy out of concrete, sand, glass, and dirt, in an exothermic reaction. Also, it would help a lot if these fragile little machines are also magically immune to excessive heat, and if you ignore them facing down bacteria and other life forms.<p>While you work on these problems I’ll be over here worried about the pollution-like side effects of ordinary endothermic nanomachines.

Its worth thinking about the idea that we are actually made of highly sophisticated self-replicating nanotech machines, and although they&#x27;ve been pretty successful for the last few billion years, they&#x27;re still nowhere near good enough to achieve exponential growth that consumes all matter.<p>Maybe someone somewhere has already explored the theory that nanotech that could re-shape all matter around it is probably impossible due to the energy challenges inherent in re-shaping arbitrary atoms.

Tiny machines that extract energy and material from their environment in order to replicate themselves... isn&#x27;t that bacteria? Life? Isn&#x27;t that all around us already? Aren&#x27;t <i>we</i> that?<p>The only way I can imagine gray goo being a real threat is if we can design such a machine that is more efficient and resilient at extracting energy and matter into copies of itself better than 4 billion years of evolution has made the existing life on Earth. And while, yes, we are often able to do better than life at certain tasks, I have a hard time believing on a large scale of time and space we can win that arm wrestle.<p>Life is optimized in every direction and has tried most of the tricks. It&#x27;s hard to beat.

Anything nano-size needs nano-power. Solar panels? Chemical batteries? Small nuclear plant? In the end, thermodynamics saves us from grey goo.<p>And if you try to co-opt a biological process for fuel, say ATP, then your nano-bot is a tasty treat for other organic bacteria who have evolved over a billion years to compete and eat in this sector.

To be an utter smartass gray goo long predates us, we call them microbes.<p>Really Grey goo is a conceptual repeat of bad scientific models like Ice 9. Complete with bad models of chemistry. In this case they forget that the molecular scale is not the same as macroscopic, often assuming molecules are like macroscopic materials that stay still until they act instead of reacting to conditions. Assuming that a self replicating hydrocarbon consumer could break down anything carbon based would be like worrying that the oil spill will start ripping carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make more oil and create a powder keg world world without any water.<p>Plus addition forgetting the constraints other than raw resources like dissipation, surface area, and power supply.

I have read through &quot;Engines of Creation&quot; (the book where this phrase was coined) three or four times and learn something new with each reading. I&#x27;ve also bought three copies because I keep giving it away (last time to a friend who became CEO of a nano-tech company). I&#x27;m not necessarily scared of the scenario described as gray goo in chapter 4 but I also think it&#x27;s a good warning to nano-practitioners.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;amzn.to&#x2F;2uPHGmV" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;amzn.to&#x2F;2uPHGmV</a>

A scenario more interesting than boundless self-replication is Ackermann goo [0], [1]. Grey goo starts with a molecular machine able to replicate itself. You get exponentially more copies, hence goo. Imagine that we could build molecules like programs which execute themselves via chemical interactions with the environment. Then, for example, a Y combinator machine would appear as a linearly growing string [2]. No danger here. Take Ackermann(4,4) now. This is vastly more complex than a goo made of lots of small dumb copies.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#58" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#58</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#59" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#59</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#259" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chemlambda.github.io&#x2F;collection.html#259</a>

While I agree that the grey goo sensationalism is wrong, it would also be wrong to throw the baby out with the bathwater. First admit that single-celled life is really just very very advanced self-reproducing nano-machinery, or else explain why it isn&#x27;t. There is some risk here, just not of the sensationalized variety.

Awesome grey goo story:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;qntm.org&#x2F;gorge" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;qntm.org&#x2F;gorge</a><p>also by the same author:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;qntm.org&#x2F;responsibility" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;qntm.org&#x2F;responsibility</a>

<i>DON&#x27;t disconsider this nightmare scenario too much -</i> While <i>engineering</i> (as in classically designing, prototyping etc.) such a grey goo might be almost impossibly-hard because of chemical energetic constraint and the obvious fact that 3bn years of evolution were not enough to bring about such effective &quot;grey goo&quot; that could &quot;consume the planet&quot;, there are some chilling new developments:<p>We&#x27;re starting to be good at (1) using machine learning to &quot;learn&quot; designs for components much faster than naive-genetical-algorithms (aka &quot;evolution&quot;), and this will only get better as ML improves, and (2) we&#x27;re getting better and better at simulating-in-software biological-like processes (and quantum computing will help with this). So we are pretty much in shape to <i>vaaaaaastly</i> outpower 3bn years of evolution.<p>A virtual + physical nanobots-evolution-gym where AI agents evolve and compete at creating better and better self-replicating nano-machines will give you the nightmare scenario easily...<p><i>Basically anything related to the combo of &quot;ML + nanotech&quot; should be carefully watched and monitored!</i><p>(And if you&#x27;re willing to not start from scratch but instead use existing bio-building-blocks like viruses and bacteria, and don&#x27;t have as high goals as &quot;consuming all matter on earth&quot; and instead you settle for &quot;most multi-cellular living matter&quot; then <i>technically we already have the capabilities.</i> You probably know what I mean.)

Sure, it&#x27;s unlikely given what we know about energy, but consider it a thought experiment about the propagation of externalities.<p>What other seemingly inconsequential machinations create systemic ripple effects? What forest are we missing for the trees?

Sounds like a really boring, less threatening, version of of a strange quark.<p>It seems like it would be more likely they&#x27;d consume themselves if they&#x27;re able to consume matter so indiscriminately... The amount of matter inside two or three of them waiting to be digested would be game for any of the other little shits to devour.<p>It also can be see in an episode of Futurama where Bender multiplies turning all the liquid on earth into booze, and then consuming it all. Which is probably about as close to real as this idea will ever be...

FWIW, the oceans are &quot;Blue&quot; Goo: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Marine_bacteriophage" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Marine_bacteriophage</a><p>&gt; Marine viruses, although microscopic and essentially unnoticed by scientists until recently, are the most abundant and diverse biological entities in the ocean. Viruses have an estimated abundance of 10^30 in the ocean...<p>Ten to the <i>thirtieth</i> power.<p>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Our popular conception of nanotechnology was probably shaped a lot by the fact that <i>Engines of Creation</i> was published at the same time as <i>Blood Music.</i>

In The Issues We Face at the Nano Scale (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=bEjx48z8Lzs</a>) the Gray Goo threat is debunked. Nanomachines need a really controlled environment to live. They need the right PH, salt, and temperature. Change any parameters and nanomachines won&#x27;t work. World saved.

Makes me think about the creation of everything: All that exists in Earth now, and probably in the entire Universe started as a blob of proto matter, the core of everything, which by still mostly unknown mechanisms, specialized and replicated itself into every different element that forms us, animals, plants, minerals, and everything else; Interesting thought;

I&#x27;ve seen a comic story in which Gyro Gearloose invents a machine which he puts on an island. He turns it on and is distracted. On return, much of the island has been turned into ice cream (frappe, I think). So this concept goes back a ways.

Oh, Futurama had an episode about something like this [0]<p>Eventually the clones turn all the water in the world to alcohol!<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theinfosphere.org&#x2F;Benderama" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theinfosphere.org&#x2F;Benderama</a>

Love the trope. I read a story in either Asimov&#x27;s or Analog in the late 80s that featured this. I&#x27;d love to read it again. Any sf superfan out there know the title offhand?

How the eff did this make the YC frontpage?

Sounds similar to replicators in the TV show &quot;<i>Startgate SG-1</i>&quot;

There is also a RTS game for those interested: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;store.steampowered.com&#x2F;app&#x2F;290790&#x2F;Grey_Goo&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;store.steampowered.com&#x2F;app&#x2F;290790&#x2F;Grey_Goo&#x2F;</a>

A gray goo consuming all carbon based structures that replicates at the same time, would be based on carbon too. Therefore they would eat themselves.

Is this a Fermi Paradox explanation?

It makes for great horror story material.<p>I once worked on a grey goo enemy in a game. The idea, was to have the grey goo capture there victims, storing them as data. Reviving them from time to time for seconds, to prevent degradation.. where did i keep the file, ah here:<p>&lt;Musician&gt;<p>.. You will grow tired, you must rest, you can not be eternally creative, and once you rest- you will be rescued like the rest of them. &lt;Lead Developer&gt;<p>... DOMUS BACKDOOR BASILISK HIJACK COGNAC DAFOODILL ANNA: FREEZE PROGRAM ... &lt;CULT LEADER&gt;<p>.. Rapture is upon us, the Silver tentacles of gods justice shall wrap themselves around us. (Squeaks) .. And inside us, to be part of the divine, oh, this is cold and hurts..<p>&lt;Scientists&gt;<p>.. Congratulations, the hacking proof system you where so proud of- it works..<p>.. you dont get it, we need Aeons of computationpower in a day to break the encryption and restore the stored people-<p>.. Gentlemen, lets focus on the good news- which is that the run-away-assembler, spares plants and lower animals<p>.. marathon of stupidity- to avoid it going exponential, let it tap geothermal- and now we cant cut it off..<p>.. Listen Domus, all humans are mortal. Cancer, this sort of runaway deadly exponential growth is what makes us human. One has to let go off the old, to embrace the new. You cant just take the philosophy department for a walk..<p>.. Radiation free Room. No need to put as in storage, this is a rad-free room. And we are living from saline solution. What do you mean- Radon &amp; Radicals?<p>.. As a medical authority, i declare radiation healthy- it trains the repair-functionality of DNA. No evolution without radiation. Come on, you dumb machine-<p>&lt;Soldier&gt;<p>.. Fallback to the AGrav, watch your flanks- keep firing, do not touch the walls or floor ...<p>&lt;SinglePerson&gt;<p>.. The sun, with every flicker - its so much bigger. Like a million years gone by on the fly.. ..(paranoid) they are after me, they are in the walls, in the ceeling, but they will not get me- the whispering voices, talking about - SUICIDE PREVENTION MODE..<p>.. the water beneath the bridge is incredible clear today..<p>.. (on toilett&#x2F;reading newspaper) Whatever it is it can wait for another minute. And now you flood the floor-..<p>.. We greet you oh mighty one, we have been praying for the rapture ever since. We want to offer support cleansing the world of sinners..<p>.. I demand my conciousness continue while in storage. Aaaaahhh....<p>&lt;Couple&gt;<p>.. I love you- I love you too..<p>.. Kids close your eyes, we love you very much- everything will be all right!<p>&lt;ZeroDay Pensioneers&gt;<p>.. didnt even smoke. And now cancer, from natural radiation. One mangled protein- one flipped bit- and BAM, your dead old man walking. Domus are you even listening (House) Yes, i am. I will miss you, you are a vital part ..<p>&lt;Kid on Scooter&gt;<p>.. Mum? Dad? .. Its soo cold .. 10 .. 11 .. Im coming now. You better hide!<p>&lt;Mum in Kitchen&gt;<p>.. Honey is that you? I have a surprise for you- .. .. So that was your life Joan, really outstanding, mum was right, up to no good.. .. 3 Martinis and then even the Facility Managment System gets too you..<p>&lt;Major&gt;<p>..-Yes, one ticket offworld - wait make that five. What do you mean - the bank is gone. I can see it walking towards the space port<p>&lt;Military&gt; ..- it WHAT, it ate the airbase? Impossible, im at the airbase-..<p>.. Day 512 after the Zero-Goo. Our Submarine will surface today for air. Beating will continue till moral improves..<p>.. So the nuclear option is off limits, due to the population still being encoded in the Goo? ..<p>&lt;Couple TV&gt;<p>..&lt;she&gt;You think, the Goo is real? &lt;he&gt; Nah, its the usual fear mongering. If it where real, there would be panic..<p>.. what a lovely quite evening, not a sound in the whole city..<p>.. what a trip dude, what a trip.. the wall is melting and the floor is mercury..<p>.. have you seen the smiths. When her house grew those veins - that bitch was furious..<p>&lt;Refugees&gt;<p>.. Yes its cold here, very cold, but the freezing keeps it at bay. Just check your cloths for silver flakes and you will be fine..<p>.. I tell you we need to dig deeper. This is no ore above us- these are plague roots..<p>.. So no thermal footprint, no CO2, no electronics and constant camouflage - and maybe, just maybe ..<p>.. Smoke, i didnt put the fire out. If i can see it, it can see it. Stupid, stupid, stupid!..<p>.. I will never drink again, i swear by St.Aloisius, that was the last drop...<p>.. Hello, i woke up in a hospital, everyone was gone. Is this the rapture or the Singularity? I can hear you moving, you know-..<p>&lt;Astronaut&gt;<p>-.. so Yuri i said to myself, what choice do you got. Your the last, your sick and non-sanes, why become a space-mummy - just go down and at least get buried with the others. So Yuri, i said, at least make a memorial..<p>&lt;Alien Astronaut&gt;<p>.. so for my clan, i claim this ancient world, for the Empire. The flag, its dragged intot the - ground, what the hell-..<p>.. the world was infested and even orbital bombardment did not reduce the plague. We are lucky to be alive and uncontaminated. Imagine if it would have infected the Quadrant Hub-..<p>&lt;Primate&gt; .. So Uluth, banging rock spear, when silver god tells her about long sleep..<p>&lt;Domus 4.0 Regressive Behaviour&gt; .. Housekeeping: How can the silversurfer-maid help you?..<p>.. Due to new cables being run behind the wall- temporary discomfort by noises may occur between 0.00 and 24.00 pm.. .. Who can bring the package, thats long past overdue, who can put into your flat a silent miracle or two- the House-OS can, because its using nanos for this jam.<p>.. And this is the flat- its roomy, sunny, city-core, the layout is personalized to your liking.<p>.. If you are satisfied with the service, why dont you invite all your friends to try Domus 4.0<p>.. Citizen your service-debt now amounts to 4 Trillion, 782.200.103.823 Dollars before taxes.<p>.. The TOS clearly defines that the House is responsible for the safety and well being of its inhabitants.<p>.. the trial period for House 4.0 ended several millenias ago. If you want to use the full Version, please register..<p>.. Elevators are currently out of service due to unused building restructuring..<p>.. This Condo is going to be so fly. Have you thought about putting in a diamondsheet between the kitchen and the living room?..<p>.. Good day Citizen: This agent is a local branch of the Domus 4.0 self-modification,repair and extension System. My prime directive is to keep you happy and healthy. After running some diagnostics on the environment, the system has determined that the current world is unsuitable for biologic beings due to radioactive hazards, such as natural radiation, pulsar and stellar radiation - ranging from x-rays to uv-light. To protect the citizens from further harm, all citizens will be mapped, dissolved and stored, until a harmless environment can be guaranteed. To avoid a memory decay, it is unfortunately necessary to partially reconstitute the citizens all 8192 years, 512 months, 256 days and 128 hours for several seconds and disassemble them again. For your own safety you will be disassembled and stored. The process is not pain-free, but due to a short-term memory wipe, no traumata does ensue. Please relax your extremities and enjoy some light jazz music, while being rescued. Do not Panic! Help is here, Safety only a few years away.<p>..

It&#x27;s beyond my understanding..