The only numbers anywhere in the world that are probably actually correct are from Diamond Princess. They tested everyone multiple times, and very likely detected every case eventually.<p>The Diamond Princess is an unintentional "natural" experiment. It is likely that the disease spread much more effectively aboard the ship than it would elsewhere in the world, but otherwise, the data should be useful.<p>Keep in mind that cruises skew older (than the overall population), even when accounting for crew -- so you might expect higher mortality than in a random sample, but it is as good of a natural experiment as we are going to get.<p>(This is relevant because older people die more often -- for example, at age 80, you have a 10% chance of death by any cause each year anyway -- and with this now being day 42 since the outbreak, that's more than 10% of a year, so you'd expect 1% of 80-year-olds aboard to have died even without the virus for example)<p>So far, 706 cases yielded 6 deaths ruled caused by the virus, 1 death ruled unrelated to the virus, and 36 serious active cases, with 212 declared recovered to date.<p>Most of these cases are more than 21 days old now, so most of the remaining mild cases will likely be resolved soon (either by recovery or by becoming a serious case).<p>The #dead and #serious have been stable for almost a week at this point. We will see what happens, of course.