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Angela Merkel estimates 60% to 70% of the German pop. will contract the virus

83 点作者 molmalo大约 5 年前

10 条评论

JanSt大约 5 年前
The estimate is from Prof. Drosten* of the Charité in Berlin, a highly regarded virologe. His lab developed the first diagnostic corona test. Before that they also developed the tests for SARS, Zika and MERS.<p>He also constantly warned to flatten the curve, spreading infection time as long as possible - preferably over multiple years...<p>For those speaking german - there is a daily podcast update from Prof. Drosten <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsxXOmhfW0uPi1H" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsx...</a><p>*Head of the Institute for Virology at the Charité
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hannob大约 5 年前
Christian Drosten, who&#x27;s likely the origin of these numbers, has explained them a few days ago in a podcast.<p>The math is incredibly simple. The idea is that right now you have an estimated transmission rate of 3 people infected by one person. (Of course this number has high uncertainties and can be changed by better isolating patients, but let&#x27;s assume it&#x27;s roughly correct.) If you want to stop the transmission this needs to go below one. The major thing that can stop transmission is immunity from patients that already had the disease (assuming, which is probably true, that most patients won&#x27;t get infected twice, even though it may happen in rare cases).<p>So getting from 3 to 1 means 2&#x2F;3 of the population need to be immune.
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molmalo大约 5 年前
Also, it seems that Germany and France are currently 7 or 8 days behind Italy, when plotting the diagnosed cases...<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;henrikenderlein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1236748772455170049" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;mobile.twitter.com&#x2F;henrikenderlein&#x2F;status&#x2F;1236748772...</a><p>(Several plots in the thread)
charlieflowers大约 5 年前
Honest question -- I am trying to see how she and others arrive at these numbers. (Believe me, I&#x27;m not a burying my head in the sand ... quite the opposite. I&#x27;m very concerned.)<p>Italy has 8,500 who are still sick. And yet, reports are that their medical system (which is good) is completely overwhelmed, to the point where treatable elderly are not even diagnosed [1].<p>Yet the numbers indicate they have about 3 hospital beds per 1000, or 186,000 beds, which are normally 80% full. So that means, 37,000 beds available.<p>So, 8,500 cases (not all of whom are in the hospital) should not overwhelm 37,000 beds, right?<p>Perhaps the number of _doctors and nurses_ are overwhelmed? Anybody know where to get reliable stats on that?<p>Anybody see what I&#x27;m missing? Or do you think I&#x27;ve gotten incorrect info?<p>I&#x27;m trying to arrive at a rational prediction of how bad things could be in the US, and how soon.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;jasonvanschoor&#x2F;status&#x2F;1237142891077697538" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;jasonvanschoor&#x2F;status&#x2F;123714289107769753...</a>
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Barrin92大约 5 年前
Seems to be a prediction at the dramatic end in particular if the quick lockdowns and quarantines are kept up. As China has shown it&#x27;s very possible to bring the numbers down.<p>Either way though even if it turns out to be a too high a prediction at least she speaks plainly and I guess electing a physicist who understands how these dynamics can work was a good idea.
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gentleman11大约 5 年前
Ireland quoted 50-60% in a CBC article I read earlier today:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbc.ca&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics&#x2F;covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-europe-1.5492967" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cbc.ca&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics&#x2F;covid-19-coronavirus-quaran...</a>
strangeloops85大约 5 年前
This is completely unwarranted fatalism. Taiwan and Singapore bent the curve, and Korea is doing it now as well. Learn from them and implement! Really don&#x27;t understand this logic at all - containment is possible.
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adrr大约 5 年前
Would it make sense to do controlled infections of younger medical staff to build immunity against the disease so they can do their jobs when masks and gloves become scarce? Ethics aside just from a pure optimal outcome perspective. Italy is already reporting a shortage of masks.
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ofrzeta大约 5 年前
&quot;Merkel went on to tell lawmakers that more events and large gatherings could be canceled, depending on the severity of the outbreak.<p>Postponing parliamentary proceedings is also a possibility, Merkel said.&quot;<p>wtf. This is what they are planning to do about it?
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jdkee大约 5 年前
This is the end.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=VScSEXRwUqQ</a>
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