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British Society for Immunology open letter to Government on SARS-CoV-2 response

137 点作者 1_over_n大约 5 年前

11 条评论

alexmingoia大约 5 年前
It’s fascinating (and depressing) to watch the difference in response between Asia and the West.<p>I’m an American living in Myanmar. Here’s what’s being done in my city all before there are any confirmed cases:<p>- Cancellation of large events.<p>- Free testing.<p>- TV notices encouraging social distancing and hand washing.<p>- Temperature checks and hand sanitizer dispensed at entrances of indoor crowded places like malls, grocery stores, large retail stores (not doing this really baffles me, since it’s so straightforward and practical).<p>- School closures.<p>- Travel and border restrictions.<p>These are simple tactics that every country should be utilizing. Yet when I talk to my friends in US and Europe, they report no temperature checks or hand sanitizer. My family member just flew through SFO and said there were no temperature checks or hand sanitizer being dispensed.<p>It’s sad and perplexing to me that common sense practical approaches to testing and spread control are not being utilized by many countries, and that closures have been reactive instead of proactive. It’s unfortunate that the UK is focused on actively ignoring practical efforts to control spread.
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thinkingemote大约 5 年前
This idea that the primary aim of the UK Government is herd immunity is plain wrong. The primary aim is to flatten the curve with specially timed interventions and any herd immunity is a by product of that. The aim is to flatten the curve so that the systems are able to cope better.<p>Herd immunity will be a by product in almost every western countries actions today. Ask them and if they are honest they will say the same that it&#x27;s a long term effect but not the primary driver or the main aim.<p>The difficult non sound bite criticism is about the flattening of the curve based on their models which basically means they need to get both the timings and the interventions spot on for it to work correctly.
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coding123大约 5 年前
The common hepatitis virus stays in the body forever and may be responsible for countless things we have typically classified as auto immune disorders.<p>So to say the solution is to get most least at risk people infected without even knowing if those 60000 recovered Chinese are all going to die in 6 months, that&#x27;s just stupid.
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hanoz大约 5 年前
We&#x27;ve got this slightly weird &quot;soon but not yet&quot; thing going on at the moment, strangely reminiscent of Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England&#x27;s infamous and ill fated &#x27;forward guidance&#x27; policy.<p>We&#x27;re being told that some time in the next two weeks all over 70s will be told to self isolate for up to four months. Well if it&#x27;s going to be four months I think my parents can jolly well start now, thank you very much. Similarly with &quot;not quite but nearly&quot; school closures.<p>It all seems to be predicated on the theory that if we start too early well get bored of it by the time the real pandemonium starts, which sounds like pretty strange thinking to me.
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sorokod大约 5 年前
<i>... to aid efforts, we call on the government to release their modelling data to allow scrutiny from the scientific community to better predict the course of this outbreak</i><p>It is possible of course that at the moment, no such thing exists to standards expected by members of the British Society for Immunology.
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nabla9大约 5 年前
The important point in the letter seems to be<p>&gt;we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not. Therefore, it would be prudent to prevent infection in the first place. More research is urgently needed on this front.
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drenginian大约 5 年前
Why in the face of absolute emergency do they communicate in such and understated manner open to ignoring and devaluing by politicians?<p>They should state with absolute clarity what they think should immediately happen instead of meekly asking two questions.<p>FFS
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etiam大约 5 年前
<i>[T]here are many unknowns in how the SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with the human immune system and how this might play into current scenarios. For example, we don’t yet know if this novel virus will induce long-term immunity in those affected as other related viruses do not.</i><p>That was really interesting to me. I didn&#x27;t know infection with related viruses doesn&#x27;t confer long-term immunity. Anybody know more precisely how closely related? All of Coronaviridae?
dr_dshiv大约 5 年前
Has anyone found any good spreadsheet models that might show assumptions?<p>At a local level, I want to be able to help my mother-in-law. If I and my family got it now, I could help them in a month. That is clear and logical at a local level, but may be counterproductive at a global level. Conflict!<p>At a global level, flattening the curve is about hospitalization. Early infections among those highly unlikely to be hospitalized reduces future risk. But, how does that square with overall growth?<p>While the local scenario is clear, the global involves more assumptions that can&#x27;t be modeled in ones head. Dying to play with models.
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buboard大约 5 年前
Not to mention, the high R0 of this virus means the threshold for herd immunity is unrealistically high. Plus, countries that are trying to delay transmission will also eventually get herd immunity , most probably with the help of a vaccine.
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nmca大约 5 年前
Brit here:<p>I&#x27;m not a fan of Dominic&#x27;s government, but the response seems to be well motivated by a series of reasonable arguments. As I understand it:<p>1. We either get herd immunity via infection or cure&#x2F;end every case of the virus in the world. They discard the latter as impossible given the infection rate and forecast time-to-vaccine.<p>2. The counterfactual&#x2F;needless damage done will be deaths due to NHS capacity saturation, which is a function of (maximum simultaneously infected) - (nhs capacity at that time).<p>3. Most controversially, they argue that people are going to be shit at implementing isolation policies of the needed severity, in the particular sense that the effectiveness of isolation measures will drop over time. That seems quite likely to me, having met some humans before. Hard to tell &#x2F; interested in studies if anyone can point to some.<p>4. As a consequence of these things, the goal is to pass severe measures later than now (but perhaps at a relative point in time similar to italy&#x27;s) such that during the period of these measures many young people will be sitting out the infection without passing it on, and the infection rate will fall to avoid saturating the NHS.<p>Or, put another way, they are going to do everything the US is doing but in about 7-14 days, as opposed to now, because the limited period of effective social isolation will hit a more high-growth period, and more young people will be sitting it out and becoming immune.<p>This doesn&#x27;t sound super-obviously wrongheaded to me. It&#x27;s unclear what the plan in the US is. Lockdown for ever? Lockdown-till-cure? Lockdown till herd immunity is pretty equivalent to the UK strategy, and seems likely to be the outcome. But herd immunity takes longer to achieve the earlier you start measures.
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