Infected people without symptoms might be driving the spread of coronavirus

Just FYI, if you don’t have symptoms or direct contact with someone with COVID (basically if you don’t have a high probability of having COVID <i>before</i> you have the test) a positive test still probably means you don’t have COVID:<p>Sample numbers:<p>* Population of US: 3e8<p>* People that have COVID right now in the US: 1e5 (30x the confirmed cases right now)<p>* Disease rate: 3e-4<p>* FALSE POSITIVE RATE for COVID test: 1% (likely higher)<p>* TRUE POSITIVE RATE for COVID: 100% (definitely lower)<p>If you take the test, don’t have symptoms or direct contact, and then the test comes back positive for the disease, then under these pretty reasonable assumptions, the likelihood you have the disease is<p>P(actually have COVID| positive test) = 3e-4 &#x2F;(1e-2(1-3e-4) +3e-4) = 2.9%

I wish there were more testing kits available, I wouldn’t want to be a vector of infection if I have no symptoms but am still carrying the virus. Im in the US and testing kits are not a thing yet

I mean this is standard - almost every viral disease has a period where you’re contagious (viral particles sloughing off), but Aren’t yet showing any symptoms.