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Mortality Rate of Covid-19 Is 0.5%, Much Lower Than CDC / WHO Claims

12 点作者 haidut大约 5 年前

4 条评论

dang大约 5 年前
Editorialized titles like that break the HN guidelines: &quot;<i>Please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don&#x27;t editorialize.</i>&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;newsguidelines.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;newsguidelines.html</a>
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robocat大约 5 年前
Good study, badly analysed IMHO.<p>If we presume the virus was still in exponential mode, then the 328 not showing symptoms could easily be those that had only just caught the virus.<p>Also you need to know the age distribution before trying to extrapolate rates to normal populations.<p>“As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent”<p>Edit: here’s the study: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2020.03.05.20031773v...</a><p>I think “quarantined” was not individually quarantined, but that the ship as a whole was quarantined.<p>ONE SURPRISING THING: high ratio of asymptomatic cases for 70+, whereas most 20-30 year olds are symptomatic: that could explain a lot about why death rates seem absurdly low for below 40 year olds - sampling error because most 20-30 show symptoms.
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cjbprime大约 5 年前
Note that, even if true, this doesn&#x27;t mean it can&#x27;t destroy a country&#x27;s healthcare system. At least 10% of cases appear to require hospitalization for pneumonia. No country has enough hospital beds for 10% of its population. Once you&#x27;re out of beds, many people who need critical care start dying instead.
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haidut大约 5 年前
Excerpt:<p>&quot;...Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org. That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless. The WHO’s number has come under fire because the true number of people infected with the virus worldwide is not known.&quot;<p>Link to the actual study:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2020.03.05.20031773v2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.medrxiv.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;10.1101&#x2F;2020.03.05.20031773v...</a>