Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?

It seems to me mathematically certain that it will.<p>A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.<p>337000*(337&#x2F;170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.<p>14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.<p>So either it diminishes or it&#x27;s over by July, guaranteed.

I&#x27;m not much aware of details, but it seems it&#x27;s thriving here in Brazil.

Houston has high humidity, and will make it into the 90’s this week. If this is true, it should slow down here before someplace colder, right?<p>I would presume that if it doesn’t, then this summer assumption is not relevant.

Nytimes article: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;22&#x2F;health&#x2F;warm-weather-coronavirus.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;2020&#x2F;03&#x2F;22&#x2F;health&#x2F;warm-weather-coron...</a><p>Some research papers from the past about SARS-CoronaVirus: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pubmed&#x2F;22312351" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pubmed&#x2F;22312351</a>

From the abstract, I gather this is a solid &quot;maybe, maybe not&quot;.

We in the southern hemisphere are heading into winter. Not ideal

I think we will only have a definite answer by May&#x2F;June for this question. The close cousin of nCov, the SARS Cov-1, had started retreating back in June 2003.

An unscientific observation about &quot;summer&quot; is in the west, schools aren&#x27;t in session. That might be a very large contributor to the spread of all viruses.<p>I think there are too many variables to approach this scientifically and people won&#x27;t really care how it diminishes. Just do everything possible to limit the spread while scientists formulate a vaccine of sorts.<p>Suggesting that a seasonal change could even be considered dangerous because it may lead people to believe that containment is no longer necessary. It&#x27;s only &quot;summer&quot; for roughly half the planet, right?