TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Ask HN: Is now a good time to invest in ETFs?

22 点作者 r0f1大约 5 年前
There was a huge drop in all major indices. Is now a good time to invest in exchange traded funds?

17 条评论

bumpkinjunkie大约 5 年前
I am careful about giving financial advice to someone asking about timing the market. Things that might be helpful to ask first.<p>1. What is it about ETFs that makes you ask the question? Do you know what an ETF is, what it does, and what other financial products are out there that do similar things and how much they cost (fees)?<p>2. There are so many resources on the internet. I would say it&#x27;s good to understand concepts like: Dollar-cost averaging, portfolio diversification, investment horizon, risk aversion. Most introductory investing resources would cover these things.<p>3. Think about what your short, medium, and long term cash and liquidity needs are to help determine how much you need&#x2F;want&#x2F;can invest. Remember, you can probably sell and get some money back, but it could be at a loss.<p>In summary, one could argue that it&#x27;s always a &quot;good&quot; time to invest. The questions I would ask are &quot;in what&quot;, &quot;how much&quot;, and &quot;how long&quot;.
评论 #22724629 未加载
评论 #22724514 未加载
ardit33大约 5 年前
Nope, SP 500 is back to what it was in end or 2017 beginning of 2018<p>1. Do you really think the economy is as good as it is in 2018?<p>2. Do you think we are in the beginning, middle, or end of this outbreak?<p>3. Will the virus come back after this summer? This is the big question, and depending on this we either have just a deep but short recession, or an almost depression<p>Answer those questions and you will know. My take:<p>1. I believe we are at the start of a deep recession. The market have been slow to respond&#x2F;adjust (they haven&#x27;t yet fully capitulated)<p>2. I think NYC is in the middle of the outbreak, while the rest of the country is in the beginning of the outbreak and they are just lagging by 2 weeks and things will get worse<p>3. This is unknown, but most scientist believe it will return as soon as the social distancing rules are eased. Best scenario is that when it returns, it is in low enough numbers that it could be contained in a way Taiwan&#x2F;South Korea did (without shutting down the economy). The worst scenario is that it returns back full force, but mutated and more deadly....
评论 #22724516 未加载
评论 #22724634 未加载
评论 #22724448 未加载
评论 #22724618 未加载
评论 #22724597 未加载
bluedevil2k大约 5 年前
No one can tell you the right answer to this question and anyone who claims they can is just guessing. The market is supposed to reflect the expected future values of the companies, so in theory all the news you know and some you probably don’t is reflected in the price. Whether it has overshot or undershot that news is unknown.
anonu大约 5 年前
In the US there are over 2300 ETFs covering major market countries, asset classes, equity exposures, fixed income exposures, factors, thematics like ESG, gaming, MAGA. There are also options-embedded strategies and 2x, 3x and -1x, -2x, and -3x leveraged funds on almost every US sector and major index.<p>If you have money to invest in for the long run - now is as good a time as any to start building your nest egg.<p>If you are trying to &quot;time&quot; the markets, it turns out nobody has a crystal ball and nobody can tell you with any degree of certainty that the markets are going to go up or down tomorrow or next month.<p>If you are considering &quot;betting on America&quot; I would be all in favor. A 130+ year graph of the Dow Jones is generally trending from the bottom-left to the top-right of the chart.<p>Another thought on timing: many people believed the markets were way-overvalued before this drop. Makes sense... we&#x27;ve been in one of the longest bull runs ever. Now we have a pandemic on our hands - which many people liken to an event like a war where there is complete uncertainty about the future. Jobless claims jumped within a 2 week period to 3+ million - many people thought that would take 4 weeks or more. We&#x27;re heading to 20 or 30% unemployment in America. We also have one of the largest stimulus packages ($2tr+) about to rain down on us in the form of never before seen monetary stimulus AND helicopter money. We just dont know whats going to happen here. Cheap rates for the last decade has fueled over $7tr in corporate debt. Now companies cash flows have ground to a halt. If we start seeing a growing domino effect of bankruptcies, you can expect this market to drop another 30%. Its a bit of a doomsday scenario - but then again, nobody thought we would be HERE 4 weeks ago - and we are.<p>Yes, stocks do look cheap - but dont catch a falling knife.
robjan大约 5 年前
If you use Dollar Cost Averaging[1] there is no such thing as a good or bad time to buy ETFs. As long as the market goes up on average, which is has done throughout history, then you will win over a sufficiently long horizon. A popular phrase is &quot;It&#x27;s not about timing the market, but time in the market&quot;.<p>Make sure you research your ETFs and what they are tracking e.g most of the Vanguard ETFs (e.g. VOO, VTI, BND) are quite reliable but if you are investing (and not day trading) avoid leveraged and inverse&#x2F;short ETFs such as SPXU and TQQQ. They may seem attractive now but they are based on derivative products so their pricing is subject to a number of factors.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Dollar_cost_averaging" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Dollar_cost_averaging</a>
评论 #22724580 未加载
评论 #22724443 未加载
astura大约 5 年前
Whenever you have the money to invest is the best time to invest in ETFs. (assuming passive index funds with a long term horizon and you understand your risk tolerance)<p>Timing the market for the &quot;best price&quot; is almost impossible.
treyfitty大约 5 年前
Note: I don’t agree to what I’m about to say, I’m just providing an alternative view.<p>There’s a hypothesis that there’s a “passive investment” bubble. By some estimates, about 20% of the market is fueled by passive investment strategies and at a certain point, it divorces asset pricing to true fundamentals. I don’t know the transmission of this, but it makes sense- just like investors flock to the wrong ZOOM stock to inflate the price of a wrong stock, too many people passively buying ETFs has the downstream effect of people buying too many shares of something that isn’t valued properly.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fortune.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;09&#x2F;14&#x2F;passive-investing-stock-market-bubble-etfs&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fortune.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;09&#x2F;14&#x2F;passive-investing-stock-marke...</a>
raincom大约 5 年前
To keep the market going up, the market needs more buyers than sellers in terms of aggregate dollars. Bogleheads and DCA &#x27;evangelicals&#x27; are not going to liquidate their equities; so, they are happy to preach truisms like &quot;you can&#x27;t time the bottom&quot;, &quot;time in the market is better than timing the market&quot;, etc.<p>Market is driven by 30% fundamentals, 70% herd psychology(technicals try to capture some of this). Keep that in mind when you evaluate answers here.<p>Longs want you to join the market to make their assets safer. Shorts and those who are on the sidelines, want to time the market by half a standard deviation; so, they want you on their side in order to break the price support of any ETFs&#x2F;indices, etc.
throw0101a大约 5 年前
Every month is a good time to invest in index funds:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ofdollarsanddata.com&#x2F;even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ofdollarsanddata.com&#x2F;even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...</a><p>Generally if you try to get out to miss the worst days, you generally end up missing the best days as well:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theirrelevantinvestor.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;02&#x2F;08&#x2F;miss-the-worst-days-miss-the-best-days&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;theirrelevantinvestor.com&#x2F;2019&#x2F;02&#x2F;08&#x2F;miss-the-worst-...</a><p>Even if ended up investing at the top of the market, i.e. just before a major crash, you generally still end up in an okay position as long as you do not panic and liquidate your position:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;awealthofcommonsense.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;02&#x2F;worlds-worst-market-timer&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;awealthofcommonsense.com&#x2F;2014&#x2F;02&#x2F;worlds-worst-market...</a><p>So: each month put in whatever you can afford ($100, $1000, whatever) into an index fund (Russell 3000) and bonds depending on your risk tolerance and forget about it. If you have access to a &#x27;target date fund&#x27; that&#x27;d be good too.<p>The above three weblogs are good if you&#x27;re into personal investing.<p>Also: for equities, probably best to go with a total market things that track something like the Russell 3000:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pwlcapital.com&#x2F;should-you-invest-in-the-sp-500-index&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pwlcapital.com&#x2F;should-you-invest-in-the-sp-500-i...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.marketwatch.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;vanguard-thinks-its-own-employees-should-own-this-fund-not-the-sp-500-theyre-right-2018-06-08" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.marketwatch.com&#x2F;story&#x2F;vanguard-thinks-its-own-em...</a><p>Also, assuming you&#x27;re American, having some international exposure to avoid <i>home country bias</i> wouldn&#x27;t be a bad thing:<p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.etf.com&#x2F;sections&#x2F;index-investor-corner&#x2F;swedroe-home-country-bias-ubiquitous" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.etf.com&#x2F;sections&#x2F;index-investor-corner&#x2F;swedroe-h...</a><p>* <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.vanguard.com&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;ISGGEB.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.vanguard.com&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;ISGGEB.pdf</a>
freetime2大约 5 年前
I would say if you&#x27;re interested in getting into passive investing it also makes sense to get into dollar cost averaging, or in other words invest a fixed amount of money into the stock market at regular intervals.<p>Passive ETF investing is like saying &quot;I don&#x27;t have an opinion as to which company will perform the best, so I am going to invest in all of them and be content with getting the average return of some index&quot;. Dollar cost averaging is like saying &quot;I don&#x27;t know if the market is overvalued or undervalued right now, so I am going to spread my investments out over time and be content with getting the average returns of the market over the next X number of years (where X would ideally be something like 20 to 30 years).&quot;
agilebyte大约 5 年前
And then what? When you invest money, you have to have a purpose. &quot;Making money&quot; is not specific enough. When do you need the money by? For example, if you&#x27;d like to invest for retirement, and this assumes you&#x27;d make periodic deposits to your account, then it does not matter if you invest today or in a month since you wouldn&#x27;t sell for (presumably) decades.
yellow_postit大约 5 年前
Which ETF? There are more ETFs than individual stocks [1]. Rather than time the market you are better off, in most cases for most people, just regularly buying broad indexes and periodically rebalancing, see [2]<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ssrn.com&#x2F;abstract=3465888" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ssrn.com&#x2F;abstract=3465888</a> [2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bogleheads.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Bogleheads®_investment_philosophy" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bogleheads.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Bogleheads®_investment_philo...</a>
kojeovo大约 5 年前
Better than the past ~6mo. I invest a % of my pay no matter the price.<p>No real answer to this though. You can get ETFs that go against major indices, you can get ones that track it, or many other types.
blendo大约 5 年前
ETFs often have relatively low management fees. If your current fees are high, by all means reallocate!
ericmcer大约 5 年前
Dollar cost averaging is the right answer.<p>If you want to attempt to be smart (it rarely pays to try and time the market) I would wait a couple more weeks, end of April is probably when the market will most likely reflect the reality of what our economic outlook is. Trump &amp; the Fed have been doing a good job propping the market up with confident words and cash injections for the last weeks. Again trying to time the market is usually a fools mission.
xwdv大约 5 年前
Here’s the straight answer, from someone who has made <i>real</i> money investing for the past 15 years: Yes.
m0llusk大约 5 年前
No! Are you kidding? What is even in there? Also no.