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Maples: Yes, There's a Bubble

19 点作者 yakto大约 14 年前

7 条评论

dasil003大约 14 年前
Bla bla bla. Everyone just says whatever is in their best interest for others to believe, because really no one has clue one.<p>Hey maybe peak oil will be way worse than we anticipated and it'll turn out that this whole capitalism thing was in fact a huge bubble.
tansey大约 14 年前
Why does it always have to be "bubble or correct valuations"? Can't it just be a somewhat overbought market?
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JonnieCache大约 14 年前
<i>“Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes”</i><p>This is a great phrase, but I think it should be "the nearest boolean" unless he was trying to be clever.
fedd大约 14 年前
let's remember about software startups. a lil bit longer time to profit, but no bubble (i think)
InclinedPlane大约 14 年前
Of course there's overvaluation, that's inevitable when people invest based solely on whether other people are investing rather than based on their own sound and experienced understanding of a particular company and it's prospects.<p>However, this isn't 1999 anymore. The amount of real value in internet business is huge today, and the industry is more mature. Web companies take in hundreds of billions of dollars a year in revenue and the longest lived have been profitable for a decade or more. Meanwhile, though valuations are occasionally high the craziness from the first dot-com bubble has been much tempered. Investors aren't dumping millions into niche companies with no revenues, no history, and no business plan, they might be making risky bets from time to time but the risk is much reduced from the wild west era. Overall these factors add up to bubble protection measures. It's simply much harder for a true speculative dot-com bubble to build up and to burst.<p>Instead we'll likely see dot-com companies meld into the same pattern as traditional companies, as sane investing takes hold and subject matter expertise becomes more common. Every industry, no matter how old, goes through periods of boom and bust, but generally the amplitude of these fluctuations is small enough for the economy to handle it.
georgieporgie大约 14 年前
Is Groupon's revenue sustainable? I thought companies were complaining that they lost money by participating, which would indicate to me that it's not sustainable business.<p>I'm highly skeptical of Zynga because I haven't seen any evidence that they can innovate at all. I suspect people will tire of grind games, and I wonder if Zynga will be able to adapt. Maybe that's just my wishful thinking, that my family will abandon its addiction...
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jdp23大约 14 年前
TL;DR summary: “Is there a tech bubble? Rounded off to the nearest yes, yes”