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Coronavirus May ‘Reactivate’ in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says

52 点作者 sci_prog大约 5 年前

10 条评论

nil-sec大约 5 年前
This came up since the beginning in January. The number of people that were reported to reinfect like this seem to lie well within the expected rate of false positives. I don’t understand how this claim is made repeatedly, without a thorough statistical analysis of what is expected.
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9nGQluzmnq3M大约 5 年前
I wouldn&#x27;t read too much into this yet. Coronavirus tests are notoriously flaky and Korea has thousands of recovered people, so it&#x27;s entirely possible that people either get false negatives twice (so they appear cured but aren&#x27;t), or get true negatives followed by a false positive later (so they appear sick but aren&#x27;t).<p>If there are patients who test negative for several weeks but <i>then</i> relapse and get clinically sick with COVID-19, we&#x27;ll have cause to worry. On the other hand, if this was a common phenomenon, it&#x27;d be happening in China already.
rjzzleep大约 5 年前
Whether the tests are flaky or not, we shouldn&#x27;t really discard the fact that virologists don&#x27;t generally say that infected people do not get reinfected, but rather that infected people will have milder symptoms and therefore less lethal diseases. There was a really good episode on the immune system on TWIV recently.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.microbe.tv&#x2F;twiv&#x2F;twiv-597&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.microbe.tv&#x2F;twiv&#x2F;twiv-597&#x2F;</a>
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sci_prog大约 5 年前
I&#x27;m hoping it&#x27;s just bad tests in the first place.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid19usa.io&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;covid19usa.io&#x2F;</a><p>Edit: Adding my website for tracking coronavirus cases over time in USA state and counties. Original Show HN here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=22778152" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=22778152</a>
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gnicholas大约 5 年前
&gt; <i>About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again</i><p>So does this mean they&#x27;re symptomatic again, or just testing positive?
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graposaymaname大约 5 年前
Is it me or are Bloomberg articles in general panic stricken? I&#x27;ve been observing this over a number of articles lately, almost all of them are adjusted to sound like they want us to be more afraid and tensed, maybe my subconscious bias dunno.
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9nGQluzmnq3M大约 5 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;outline.com&#x2F;n8cTuW" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;outline.com&#x2F;n8cTuW</a>
skwb大约 5 年前
IMHO I&#x27;m fairly skeptical of these claims. There have been a lot of scrambling to get testing online worldwide, so I&#x27;m fairly certain that Pr(False Positive) and Pr(False Negative) are reasonably high given circumstances. I don&#x27;t have the numbers on me right now, but I <i>think</i> sensitivity is only 70%... So it&#x27;s not hard to imagine a situation where a combination.<p>The thing that in my mind sorta kills this &quot;reinfection&quot; argument is our previous experience with SARS virus [1]. Figure 1 of the paper shows IgG reactivity for up to 3 years. Anecdotally, I&#x27;ve heard from my immunity bioinformatics colleagues that the spike protein that is recognized by the immune system is very well conserved.<p>I haven&#x27;t seen a ton of <i>great</i> evidence that have really pushed my priors against the conclusion that these handful of cases are better explained somehow by faulty testing&#x2F;some other combination of complication. As always, willing to adjust these priors if given compelling evidence. :)<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC2851497&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov&#x2F;pmc&#x2F;articles&#x2F;PMC2851497&#x2F;</a>
unsrsly大约 5 年前
It is unclear whether these patients are shedding viral RNA particles from their prior infection or actual infectious virus from an ongoing infection. The way to tell the difference would be to perform viral cultures instead of the PCR-based test.
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rajnathani大约 5 年前
I am not sure whether this has to do with testing accuracy, however we had a similar case [0] recently in India.<p>&gt; A 60-year-old woman from Pune who tested negative for coronavirus died three days after being discharged.<p>&gt; However, on April 4, she was rushed to Sassoon Hospital in Pune, where she died even before admission. When her sample was tested again, it turned out to be positive.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;economictimes.indiatimes.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics-and-nation&#x2F;pune-womans-death-due-to-covid-19-puzzles-authorities&#x2F;articleshow&#x2F;75003417.cms" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;economictimes.indiatimes.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;politics-and-natio...</a>
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