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Forecasting with uncertainty

84 点作者 Lukas1994大约 5 年前

3 条评论

refrigerator大约 5 年前
Hey folks, I&#x27;m one of the authors of the post. Would love to hear people&#x27;s thoughts, and happy to answer any questions :)<p>If you liked this, then I&#x27;d definitely recommend reading &quot;The Flaw of Averages&quot; by Sam Savage. It talks about this stuff in a lot more detail, and the style is very entertaining — not at all what you&#x27;d expect from a statistics book.
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jerednel大约 5 年前
I like the concept. Who is this targeted at though? Having been an analytics mgr at couple of ad agencies my common questions were...<p>Given current impression share for my campaigns, what would incremental spend do for CPA and position?<p>What would be the expected CPA to move from avg position of 1.8 to 1.4<p>Can I tie CRM data to get value of leads&#x2F;opportunities and optimize for that?
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clairity大约 5 年前
too bad casual.app is so tightly coupled to the google ecosystem, even enough to say it&#x27;s optimized for chrome (terrible for privacy&#x2F;confidentiality). we really need deeper and wider understanding of decision-making under risk and uncertainty (see over-reaction to covid by many, under-reaction by some). tooling like this can help.<p>it&#x27;s hard to evaluate the modeling capabilities from a few pages and blog posts. how does it compare to crystal ball on excel, for example?
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