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Selection Sunday: Is your March Madness prediction algorithm ready?

10 点作者 danger大约 14 年前

6 条评论

aothman大约 14 年前
If you're interested in this kind of stuff, Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) runs a fantastic basketball analytics site. He's a big proponent of what are called "tempo-free stats", which aim to filter out issues of playing speed from scoring (a team that plays quickly will score a lot of points, nearly independently of whether or not they are winning). Tempo-free stats instead count possessions; one interesting statistic is that the average team this year in college basketball produced 1.01 points per possession - such a tidy figure to emerge from the chaos.<p>In terms of predictions, one of the most interesting teams this year is Kansas (<a href="http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Kansas" rel="nofollow">http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Kansas</a>). They've only lost twice but have a large number of narrow home wins. Depending on how your algorithm treats those wins they either look like a team that will struggle to reach the sweet 16 or like a potential national champion.
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kenjackson大约 14 年前
Why can't people use any dataset they want? I think the rule should be, "Use any data you like, but you must submit any data used for use by the rest of the field".
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listrophy大约 14 年前
See my unrefactored-ruby-from-two-years-ago solution. <a href="https://github.com/listrophy/lazy_ncaa" rel="nofollow">https://github.com/listrophy/lazy_ncaa</a><p>It's pitifully simple... it just uses the historical probability of seed A beating seed B in round C. Going into the Elite 8 last year, it produced a bracket in the top 800 on ESPN.com. Of course, the other three brackets it produced (and I posted) failed miserably.
bumticks大约 14 年前
No
ycnewsname大约 14 年前
What does last years algorithm look like on this years tournament.
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zdw大约 14 年前
Oh boy, basketball. The only thing less interesting than Gruber's baseball related posts, other than Golf on TV.<p>I just can't get into watching sports - I love playing them (soccer and ultimate frisbee on the weekends) but watching them seems pointless for some reason. My wife watches more sports than I do, and she watches figure skating and track &#38; field, which comes on like 4 times a year...<p>Anyone else feel this way?
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