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Covid-19 has a 0.05% fatality rate in people under 65 without comorbidities

14 点作者 jtdaugh大约 5 年前

3 条评论

vannevar大约 5 年前
The mortality rate is not the only consideration. People don&#x27;t want to die, sure, but they also don&#x27;t want to spend a couple of weeks in the hospital. And <i>that</i> risk, even for those under 65, is much, much higher: at least 1 in 100 (Source:<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www1.nyc.gov&#x2F;site&#x2F;doh&#x2F;covid&#x2F;covid-19-data.page" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www1.nyc.gov&#x2F;site&#x2F;doh&#x2F;covid&#x2F;covid-19-data.page</a>).<p>Not only do individuals not want to spend time in the hospital, we as a society don&#x27;t want them there either. Assuming we need 60% of the population to recover in order to achieve herd immunity, and assuming we somehow isolate <i>all</i> of our 65+ year olds from the virus, that would mean almost 2M hospitalizations in the US.
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rpiguy大约 5 年前
While I agree that the press is exaggerating the deadliness of the disease, this number is also misleading. As many will point out, the vast majority of US citizens have at least one comorbidity (obesity, diabetes, heart trouble, smoking, asthma, etc.)<p>You have to go to the very young (under 25) to find a sizable population without a comorbidity.<p>I think it is more useful to point out that mortality is skewed heavily toward age and whether or not you are in a nursing home. Seniors outside of nursing homes are doing an order of magnitude better than those in homes.<p>Over half of US counties have no COVID deaths. The number are skewed terribly by NY&#x2F;NJ as well.
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jtdaugh大约 5 年前
Spreadsheet with data and sources:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1bKbRccSVz-u5HtoLK0zbctSh0JeCTqNggw5fv3SQRuY&#x2F;edit?usp=sharing" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;docs.google.com&#x2F;spreadsheets&#x2F;d&#x2F;1bKbRccSVz-u5HtoLK0zb...</a>