TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Consensus as Religion

12 点作者 _ttg将近 5 年前

4 条评论

chrisco255将近 5 年前
I fundamentally agree with chaos theory. When I come across predictions based on non-linear, highly dynamic, multivariate systems, I know that uncertainty is an exponential function of time in those systems, even if we have a perfect understanding of how that system works (often not true). This is why I&#x27;m a skeptic of most studies affirming the ideal diet or ones that seek to flatten psychological profiles to predict behavior or ones that have simple answers for economic problems or studies attributing all climate change to anthropogenic CO2 and ones that argue that catastrophic warming will occur in the 21st century.<p>When it comes to predicting chaos, there can be no consensus. The only rational position to take is to prepare for the maximum range of outcomes with given economic constraints. For example, if we over-corrected for global warming, investing all of our limited resources into that, and we instead find ourselves plunged into a 100K-year glacial period by the end of the 21st century (perhaps caused by supervolcano), will we have saved humanity or nature from decline or mass extinctions?
评论 #23453697 未加载
voldacar将近 5 年前
It is so true that the internal mental&#x2F;ideological structure of most &quot;skepticism&quot; is very similar to religious fundamentalism.<p>This short article got linked here a few days ago and it&#x27;s been at the forefront of my mind since then: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;amasci.com&#x2F;weird&#x2F;pyrrhon.html" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;amasci.com&#x2F;weird&#x2F;pyrrhon.html</a>
评论 #23452224 未加载
db48x将近 5 年前
I definitely agree with that. If you can&#x27;t tolerate other ideas, then you aren&#x27;t doing science.
Gollapalli将近 5 年前
Any other argument other than &quot;The data shows x&quot;, or &quot;inferring from the data&quot; is probably not science. The author makes solid points, and gives good reasons to doubt the the climate change consensus, even if those reasons are primarily sociological.<p>EDIT: Seeing a lot of comments going grey in this thread, but not a lot of arguments.