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The World in 2036: Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won't (2010)

97 点作者 pedrodelfino将近 5 年前

15 条评论

misiti3780将近 5 年前
I know he doesnt seem to be popular here, but Taleb seems to be one of the most important thinkers of our time. The fact that he is such a dick in public turns a lot of people off but it seems most of his core ideas are salient.<p>If I like Taleb, who else should be reading?
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motohagiography将近 5 年前
Taleb&#x27;s message has been consistent. His offhand remark about pandemics overlooked how many of those old family owned businesses would be wiped out by one though. Leveraged and globalized companies are still doing fine. His prediction on gold backed currency still has some runway left, as the de-dollarization of the global economy is well underway, and last I checked some 5-7 years ago, China had accumulated enough physical gold to launch a gold backed international settlement and reserve currency with only about 30x leverage.
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csomar将近 5 年前
Here is something funny: The USA &quot;doomers&quot; happen to live, <i>surprisingly</i> in the USA or somewhere else doomed (Europe).<p>&gt; <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;nntaleb&#x2F;status&#x2F;1204827396999929857" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;twitter.com&#x2F;nntaleb&#x2F;status&#x2F;1204827396999929857</a><p>Last time I checked, Taleb lives in NYC. Surprise! That&#x27;s where the &quot;doom&quot; will happen once the USD is hyper-inflated and the USA is bankrupt. Someone is not following his own advice.<p>I&#x27;d also bet that Taleb is using in his daily-life more big corp products than small-family owned ones. I&#x27;m really wondering where this cognitive dissonance is coming from since many &quot;high-profile&quot; people seem to be suffering from it.
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haltingproblem将近 5 年前
Yeah, Taleb is a tough one. His books and ideas have done more to change my thinking than <i>almost</i> anything else I have read. I recently got through Skin in the Game (finally!) adn it was head exploding especially in the light of Covid-19. I would rank it above his other books though he ranks Anti-Fragile as his most important work.<p>Some reasons Taleb comes off as so intransigent and just obstinate in real-life is two fold -<p>1) He sees as profoundly evil the privatization of profits and socialization of risks (banks) and sees &quot;no consequence&quot; professions - economists, experts, bureaucrats, war mongers, politicians and intellectuals as deeply unethical and predatory.<p>2) He went through a phase which he talks about in Anti Fragile, after the publication of Black Swan that he actually had to get security and was broadly shunned by the financial and intellectual elite which went against them. He is also independently wealthy and has learnt to inoculate himself to the circular congratulatory world of honors, awards, citations etc.<p>Taleb has been right about a lot of things and obviously wrong about few. However that is a difficult yardstick to measure on when the events he is talking about unfold once every 100 years or longer. It takes immense courage to make a stand on things that might never happen in your lifetime. For example he has been talking about the risks of pandemics for years and wrote a very prescient piece on Covid-19 in Jan. Now, China could have very well stopped Covid-19 in its tracks like they did SARs and we would have been spared and he would have looked like a fear monger. However it was the right call for Taleb to make and that is true courage.<p>I began reading Taleb when Fooled by Randomness came out in the early 200s. Read The Black Swan and then stopped because I did not find his work prescriptive. Recently got through the rest of his books and wished I had read them much much earlier. Now I plan to re-read them every two years.<p>Most intellectuals, including the general population of HN, have an almost allergic reaction to Taleb. They find him pompous, insufferable, unscientific, unoriginal and the rest. To each his own but it would behoove anyone who generally cares about how the world works to give the Incerto a read with an open mind.<p>BTW he is hugely bullish on the value of startups to both individuals and society (Anti-Fragile and Skin In the Game).
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ErikAugust将近 5 年前
&quot;The world will face severe biological and electronic pandemics, another gift from globalisation.&quot;
magicsmoke将近 5 年前
&quot;A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen “black swan” events, will eventually break into pieces.&quot;<p>This here is crucial. Investment in capitalism resolves around predicting future profits and committing yourself to those predictions via debt and leverage. However, the heavier your commitments or the further the future swings from your predictions, the more of today&#x27;s production you&#x27;ve wastefully dumped into a hole.
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dang将近 5 年前
A tiny thread from 2010: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1940661" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=1940661</a>
simonebrunozzi将近 5 年前
You know what? I really like Taleb, despite certain aspects of his personality that might irritate most &quot;normal&quot; people. There&#x27;s just one single thing that I very strongly disagree with (his take on inequality [0]), which is because I can&#x27;t really understand but a tiny fraction of what he writes or says.<p>Can you imagine how beautiful that is? When I&#x27;m bored, I take a look at his twitter account and get inspired by things I would hardly find elsewhere.<p>Ah, on the inequality part: you would deserve a proper explanation, but in summary: I&#x27;m Italian, living in San Francisco for the past decade; when he says there&#x27;s more inequality in Florence than in the US, I have a deep gut feeling that he&#x27;s completely wrong. I know Florence and I know San Francisco, in terms of inequality I would always pick Florence (in terms of being a fairer system). I just need to pick outside my window to see several homeless people, and that&#x27;s only scratching the surface.<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;incerto&#x2F;inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;incerto&#x2F;inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d...</a>
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cs702将近 5 年前
So far, right on 2 out of 9 predictions. Here are the nine predictions and their current status:<p><i>&gt; The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened by deficits, politicians&#x27; misalignment of interests and the magnification of errors by centralised systems. The pre-modernist robust model of city-states and statelings will prevail, with obsessive fiscal prudence.</i><p>1. So far, NOT TRUE. Nation-states still dominate the global landscape, and a majority have annual budget deficits (i.e., there is no &quot;fiscal prudence&quot;).<p><i>&gt; Currencies might still exist, but, after the disastrous experience of America&#x27;s Federal Reserve, they will peg to some currency without a government, such as gold.</i><p>2. So far, NOT TRUE. AFAIK, no national currencies are pegged to gold nor to some other &quot;currency without a government&quot;. Currencies created by government fiat dominate.<p><i>&gt; Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange (hence “efficient”) and paying bonuses will be gone. Those that will survive will be the more black swan-resistant—smaller, family-owned, unlisted on exchanges and free of debt. There will be large companies then, but these will be new—and short-lived.</i><p>3. So far, NOT TRUE. Most companies that are large, debt-laden, and exchange-traded are still around in their current form, though many have been supported by government largesse during the covid-19 pandemic.<p><i>&gt; Most of the technologies that are now 25 years old or more will be around; almost all of the younger ones “providing efficiencies” will be gone, either supplanted by competing ones or progressively replaced by the more robust archaic ones. So the car, the plane, the bicycle, the voice-only telephone, the espresso machine and, luckily, the wall-to-wall bookshelf will still be with us.</i><p>4. So far, TRUE.<p><i>&gt; The world will face severe biological and electronic pandemics, another gift from globalisation.</i><p>5. TRUE on the biological front!!!<p>6. So far, NOT TRUE on the electronic front.<p><i>&gt; Religious practice will experience a revival, seen as a conveyor of robust heuristics, cultural values and rituals.</i><p>7. So far, NOT TRUE. See, for example: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pewforum.org&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;17&#x2F;in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pewforum.org&#x2F;2019&#x2F;10&#x2F;17&#x2F;in-u-s-decline-of-christ...</a><p><i>&gt; Science will produce smaller and smaller gains in the non-linear domain, in spite of the enormous resources it will consume; instead it will start focusing on what it cannot—and should not—do.</i><p>8. So far... MAYBE? I mean, we have seen remarkable advances in AI (vision, NLP, speech, etc.), distributed systems (e.g., blockchains), quantum computing (Google, IBM, others), space exploration (Tesla, Blue Origin, others), green energy (Tesla again)... I&#x27;m inclined to say, as of yet, NOT TRUE.<p><i>&gt; Finally, what is now called academic economics will be treated with the same disrespect that rigorous (and practical) minds currently have for Derrida-style post-modernist verbiage.</i><p>9. So far, NOT TRUE. Academic economists still seem to be treated with about as much respect as in 2010.
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0xCMP将近 5 年前
I think his biggest mis-read here was decentralization. If anything everything is becoming increasingly centralized to the point that we NEED to decentralize to keep things stable, but not to the level he is saying.<p>I just think the worst case here we&#x27;re really going towards Dystopian Sci-Fi &quot;one world government and super corporations&quot; rather than city states.
ur-whale将近 5 年前
<a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;8hR2P" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;8hR2P</a>
playingchanges将近 5 年前
I’m about 3&#x2F;4 the way through Taleb’s ‘Antifragile’ after having already read ‘The Black Swan’ coincidentally only a few months before Covid hit. Must read material for understanding the world we are living in &#x2F; entering right now in my opinion.
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dvt将近 5 年前
I used to like Taleb (maybe due to my disillusionment after 2008), but it&#x27;s becoming more and more clear to me that he doesn&#x27;t really contribute that much to the intellectual landscape; he&#x27;s very much in the same vein as someone like Jordan Peterson. His Twitter machismo and pseudo-trolling is also pretty telling -- if I were a millionaire, I&#x27;d probably be fishing off the coast of Malta, not picking internet fights on Twitter.<p>I read his entire <i>Incerto</i>, and it was an absolute slog. Endless chapters just about how he&#x27;s smarter than other Wall Street guys. Antifragile is probably the best book in the series, but the concept itself could be relegated to an essay -- not a whole book. As far as the article itself is concerned, it&#x27;s typical doomerism. His entire post-Wall Street career revolves around doom and gloom (his main claim to fame being &quot;black swan&quot; events), so of course it makes sense that, from a Talebian perspective, the world will end by 2035.
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aerodog将近 5 年前
I like Taleb but he was off on voice-only telephones :D
fergie将近 5 年前
How do we get around the Economist’s paywall these days?
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