As an improvement I would recommend simply showing a graph of, say, the past 5 years death rate, adjusted for population. I'm not sure how to understand expected deaths (who expected it?). What I want to know is how this year's death count compares to a bad year. With a new virus on the loose it makes sense that more people would die than last year's relatively calm fly season. I recall seeing a graph of death rate for the past 5 years for NYC in particular, but not a general one.