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Zero-sum thinking on immigration will make America poorer

219 点作者 betocmn将近 5 年前

30 条评论

jacobriis将近 5 年前
The authors are making the very popular claim that the &quot;lump of labor fallacy&quot; and that migration is not &quot;zero-sum&quot; conclusively demonstrate that any permissive migration scheme is undoubtedly beneficial for everyone in any country at any time (&quot;In short, immigration creates more economic opportunities for everyone: a win-win scenario&quot;).<p>It is true that there isn&#x27;t a &quot;lump of labor&quot; (the amount of work is not fixed) and that migration isn&#x27;t &quot;zero-sum&quot; (where each participant&#x27;s gain or loss of utility is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the utility of the other participants).<p>But those are very narrow claims. It doesn&#x27;t follow every conceivable permissive migration scheme is beneficial for every receiving country and it certainly doesn&#x27;t follow that nobody is harmed by any permissive migration scheme.<p>The H1B scheme, a topical example here, is restricted to a small number of professions by statute (and in practice is 70% software people) so the arguments about migration generally and the economy broadly shouldn&#x27;t be applied without further consideration.<p>It is easy to imagine if you had a profession that has some limitation to demand and narrowly allowed migration for that profession only that given a sufficient number of migrants you would displace some current residents from the profession and preclude some number of current residents from joining that profession and lower salaries of the profession.
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addicted将近 5 年前
The simple consequence of making life difficult for immigrant software professionals in our company has been a wholesale shift to hiring in India and Eastern Europe (well, also Canada for all the people who were hired in the US and then the US wouldn’t give them visas based on the lottery) instead of hiring within the US.<p>And it makes complete sense. The potential H1B visa holder the company was hiring otherwise does not disappear off the face of the universe the moment their H1B disappears. They are still available to work from their home countries, where, in almost all cases, they will be happier with a lower salary!<p>Most software jobs don’t require client meetings, but it’s anyways been cheaper for the company to just fly them in once a month anyways if needed.<p>Making immigrants life harder increases offshoring, and not domestic hiring.<p>The H1B visa is indeed flawed and ripe for abuse. The obvious solution is to fix the flaws, and eliminate the abuse. The current administration has instead chosen to make it more capricious and arbitrary, basically telling all honest companies that if you want a global workforce, it’s probably much better to leave that global workforce outside the US.<p>The current administration keeps promising a “smarter” immigration scheme, but it’s been 3 1&#x2F;2 years and there isn’t even an outline for such a scheme, never mind an actual effort at fixing the issues in work visas.<p>Offshoring consultants are once again in vogue thanks to the administrations capricious efforts and the pandemic basically forcing companies to work remotely, making any local advantage disappear entirely.
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ahupp将近 5 年前
Sometimes it&#x27;s useful to look at the most extreme version of the problem. So instead of, say, tweaks to H1-B, imagine a world where we did open the borders and gave everyone who wanted one a plane ticket and a US work visa. Economists would say that this would greatly increase aggregate world GDP, and they are probably right.<p>But its not clear that existing American workers would be better off. The usual claim is that all these new workers create more demand and thus more jobs for everyone. But that only holds in industries that scale employment linearly with demand. Most of the people on HN are <i>not</i> in that sort of job.<p>I think immigration is hugely beneficial for the US, but we should be wary of simplistic arguments from economics.<p>BTW, the book &quot;Open Borders: the science and ethics of immigration&quot; is a great quick read on this topic. I disagree with its conclusions but I&#x27;m glad I read it.
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gumby将近 5 年前
This is a major foreign aid program by the US. For decades the US has benefited from a so-called “brain drain” as smart people from other countries came to the US to work, or to be educated and then staying to work. Germany sent their best and brightest starting in the 1930s and continuing into the 40s when they induced other countries to do the same. There would be no A bomb without this, for example, nor US moon missions.<p>GW Bush returned the favor by sending stem cell work to China and Singapore (and to a lesser extent, Europe). Now smart scientists, if they want to work in person with the widest supply of good colleagues, will go to other wealthy countries.<p>It’s hard to see this as anything good for the world.
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logicchains将近 5 年前
What really surprises me is that, while most Americans seem to agree it&#x27;s not okay to discriminate based on the colour of someone&#x27;s skin (because skin colour is something we can&#x27;t control), they&#x27;re quite happy to discriminate based on the country of somebody&#x27;s birth. People have just as little control over their country of birth as they do over their skin colour.
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forgingahead将近 5 年前
Zero-sum thinking on business and wealth-creation has <i>already</i> made America (and many countries in the West) poorer - an entire generation has been brainwashed into believing that business, profit-seeking, and earning money is an ignoble pursuit.
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elevenoh将近 5 年前
Those constrained by this, note Canada&#x27;s relatively new startup visa:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.canada.ca&#x2F;en&#x2F;immigration-refugees-citizenship&#x2F;services&#x2F;immigrate-canada&#x2F;start-visa.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.canada.ca&#x2F;en&#x2F;immigration-refugees-citizenship&#x2F;se...</a>
coldtea将近 5 年前
Something doesn&#x27;t have to be zero-sum to be detrimental for certain parts of the population and beneficial for others...<p>And the idea of the positive or negative general sum doesn&#x27;t mean much - unless you&#x27;re not affected or you believe in trickle down economics, or you&#x27;re into sacrificing yourself for some greater good.<p>If you&#x27;re on the side that gets negatively affected, the fact that &quot;in general the economy&#x2F;GDP is better off&quot; doesn&#x27;t mean shit to you sleeping in the street.<p>And it&#x27;s doubly hurtful to see it used as a smug argument by people positively affected. Even more so when the benefits to the economy go to an ever smaller segment... (so you can have a 2x larger pie, but a smaller slice than before, even in absolute terms).<p>Addressing that with empathy (for those negatively affected, those positively affected doesn&#x27;t need as much) is how real progress is made...
CM30将近 5 年前
&gt; In many instances, positions that native born workers are not willing to fill create opportunities for migrants.<p>Why do people assume this is a good thing? A lot of the jobs native born workers are unwilling to fill get few&#x2F;no applicants because the conditions are terrible, they pay like crap or they&#x27;re undesirable in some other way.<p>In those cases, the answer isn&#x27;t &#x27;import workers willing to do the work for cheap&#x2F;in terrible conditions&#x27;. It&#x27;s &#x27;improve the job so people actually want&#x2F;will tolerate doing it&#x27; or &#x27;automate said job so you don&#x27;t need employees doing it&#x27; or &#x27;do it yourself&#x2F;with less employees because your company&#x2F;organisation cannot support&#x2F;afford more of them&#x27;.<p>No business needs to exist, nor does every business or individual need to be able to find workers. Being able to import people to do work at worse wages in order to keep a failing business afloat is not a good thing.
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chaostheory将近 5 年前
I wonder how many US tech companies wouldn&#x27;t exist were it not for immigrants? Germany and Canada are probably taking advantage of the situation.
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fergie将近 5 年前
This article contradicts itself by simultaneously claiming that H-1B visas _dont_ affect pay and conditions...:<p>&quot;The misconception is that there is a fixed amount of work — a lump of labor. According to this view, jobs are a scarce resource to be distributed among a pool of workers who would otherwise compete for those jobs. Also, more laborers always equal less pay.&quot;<p>...whilst also making the case that they _do_:<p>&quot;restrictions like the ones just passed will turn many skilled workers away or make it virtually impossible for companies to hire foreign workers on short or long-term bases. This will make these companies less innovative, less flexible, and ultimately less competitive.&quot;<p>And as a bonus, also throwing in the (often debunked) claim that there exist a category of jobs that native workers under no circumstances will do:<p>&quot;In many instances, positions that native born workers are not willing to fill create opportunities for migrants.&quot;<p>In software, the abuse of the the H-1B is pretty well documented by people who have experience of it. It is typically a mechanism to import programmers into consultancy mills who then carry out relatively low-tech work well away the FAANGs. It is racist, and absolutely calculated to undercut the cost of existing local labor (<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;cscareerquestions&#x2F;comments&#x2F;hefnfm&#x2F;my_experience_with_h1b_as_a_poc&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.reddit.com&#x2F;r&#x2F;cscareerquestions&#x2F;comments&#x2F;hefnfm&#x2F;m...</a>)<p>The thing is you can reasonably make an argument that all of this is OK. That we should as a society work to keep a lid on the pay and conditions of workers in order to maximize the economic output of business. However, that is not what the linked article is doing- it is talking up the benefits of H-1b to business (fair enough), whilst attempting to brush the very real disadvantages of the scheme to all involved, native and immigrant, under the carpet.
diogenescynic将近 5 年前
I agree, but I also think that billionaires need to start sharing productivity gains with their workers because most workers haven&#x27;t seen a raise in decades. Millions of Americans have been left behind.
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sprash将近 5 年前
This article is wrong on so many levels I don&#x27;t even know where to begin. Firstly for the last 40+ years the growth of wages stagnated when at the same time productivity per hour was rising at roughly the same levels like it was before. Where did all the surplus capital go? Simple: the fact that the wealth of the top 0.1% grew much faster than that of the bottom 99.9% is well established. As the article correctly mentions this was achieved with two major supply shocks. One is women entering the workforce and the other is mass immigration. But none of them made &quot;America richer&quot;, only very few Americans.<p>The reality is that immigration is not only a zero-sum it is much worse than that. Keeping labor cost artificially low will lead to stagnating technology. The industrial revolution could only happen because the wages in England were (for many unrelated reasons) really high and even though the principles of the steam engine were known since the year 200 (!) for the first time it was economically feasible to use the technology to replace workers. And thus the new era of technology was born. There will be no technological advancement without labor shortage. Labor shortages are good for everyone.
curation将近 5 年前
We are all the same species herded around imaginary walls that only apply to us as individuals; moreso if we were born inside the imaginary walls that mark us as hollow, dangerous beings. Immigration is a story we tell ourselves to know we are powerful and good. We are poorer indeed by our assertion that some humans are more human and require proper paperwork to gain access to our mythoreligious order of the West.
dropit_sphere将近 5 年前
The discussion on this has really not been intellectually honest, or, to be more charitable, has not taken the issue seriously enough to <i>really</i> dig.<p>The &quot;lump of labor fallacy&quot; is...not really a fallacy, or at least can act that way longer than a lot of people can remain solvent. Let&#x27;s look at the article:<p>&gt;Furthermore, immigrants are not only workers, but they are also consumers. <i></i>Ultimately, the amount of jobs available depends in large part on the level of demand for goods and services,<i></i><p>This is true if everyone&#x27;s on a manufacturing line making frozen food and Model-T&#x27;s for each other, but modern production isn&#x27;t linear anymore. If you add fifty million more people to the U.S.: how many people will Google need to hire to deal with the extra demand? <i>Zero</i>.<p>The extra jobs created are instead <i>service</i> jobs, of varying levels of crappiness. More lawyers and psychiatrists---good, I guess. But the lion&#x27;s share is more demand for waiters and Uber drivers.<p>&gt;In many instances, positions that native born workers are not willing to fill<p>There&#x27;s about an inch of separation between this and &quot;we can&#x27;t find any programmers!&quot; I would hope, on HN of all places, I wouldn&#x27;t need to debunk this.<p>&gt;The idea that immigrants will steal jobs from American workers assumes they compete for the same scarce pool of jobs. Studies show this is often not the case.<p>Sure, because those jobs (and business models that rely on them) exist <i>because of cheap labor</i>. Poor whites in the South presumably weren&#x27;t lining up to pick cotton unpaid, but without slavery, somehow I think plantation owners would have found a way to get it out of the fields. Yes, the price of cotton in England would have gone up. Life would have gone on.<p>&gt;And despite immigrants only making up 16% of inventors, they are responsible for 30% of aggregate US innovation since 1976,<p>Let&#x27;s posit an explanation for this: engineering in the U.S. is not <i>really</i> respected. Similar to Jews in medieval eras who became bankers because they were disallowed from everything else, foreigners face real barriers to entry to exploitive soft-skills jobs like sales, finance, law, and management. So they&#x27;re often stuck in an engineering&#x2F;post-doc ghetto. Does anyone find this hard to believe?<p>As for the rising-tide effect---there seems to be no mention of <i>negative</i> externalities. Housing pressure is probably the most obvious one to most HN readers (mull over the phrase &quot;lump of housing fallacy&quot; if you want to chuckle), but decreased social capital in ethnically diverse neighborhoods is another.<p>I&#x27;m relatively cosmopolitan. I&#x27;ve lived abroad, I speak multiple foreign languages, about half my coworkers (whom I like and have no animus towards) are immigrants. I&#x27;m working on side projects with people in Asia and Europe.<p>But <i>boy</i> is it hard not to notice that at the same time institutions which are <i>nominally</i> economic complements to labor, but are looking preeeeettty extractive these days---universities and corporations---that it just happens to be <i>now</i> that immigration is a human right. Compare to California in the 90&#x27;s!<p>I think if you look for the man behind the curtain, it&#x27;s---surprise!---Capital, again and again.
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Frost1x将近 5 年前
I find the non-zero-sum arguments often lacking imagination. Outside of simple mechanic table games, in most of reality, resources and energy are finite and basic human needs are fundamentally shared.<p>Most scenarios claiming to be non-zero-sum often lack imagination or pursue academic dishonesty by isolating systems to a few components to project the scenario as being positive sum, when in the fact the goal is to sell zero sum or net negative sum game by outside players or those on the other side with much to gain.
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ngcc_hk将近 5 年前
Hence you need to be selectively so to minimise the negative and boost the positive. The question is not open ended. If one has to be utilitarian one might as well do it all.
foogazi将近 5 年前
&gt; In many instances, positions that native born workers are not willing to fill create opportunities for migrants.<p>What are these positions that native born workers are not willing to fill?
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hamilyon2将近 5 年前
I always thought that it is established truth.<p>Like, I was taught that in school. Immigration increases general wealth of nation. If 100% of that wealth is captured by immigrants employer (highly unlikely) then it might be that it is net neutral for everyone else.<p>Otherwise, she pays taxes. She buys products. She provide services. Sooner or later, she might employ someone herself. Obviously, sosiety benefits from every single deed of immigrant.
sergeykish将近 5 年前
I&#x27;ve recently stumbled on United States Department of War film from 1943<p>&gt; We must guard everyone&#x27;s liberty or we can lose our own. If we allow any minority to lose its freedom by persecution or by prejudice we are threatening our own freedom<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=vGAqYNFQdZ4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=vGAqYNFQdZ4</a>
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Kephael将近 5 年前
H1B visas are quite literally issued to new grads. Confounding this with inventors and people founding companies is disingenuous.
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rdlecler1将近 5 年前
The math here neglects the human element to all of this. There are speed limits to change and you also need to worry about the opinion of the other 50% of the population because when they fee disenfranchise they go and elect someone like Trump as a counterbalance.
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m0zg将近 5 年前
Anything that kills US-based H1B sweatshops and de-facto indentured servitude is a good thing in my book. And I say this as a former H1B. Either use it properly (for highly skilled immigration only), or shut it down entirely. You don&#x27;t get to first abuse the system and then tell me what to think about it.
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ycombonator将近 5 年前
There are tons of 45 and older American software professionals looking for jobs. Immigration specifically related to tech labor is promoted by big tech to dilute the labor pool and reduce their labor expenses. This group is the last of the good paying jobs in America.
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kwistzhaderach将近 5 年前
I’m not American.<p>It’s interesting to note that America has a foreign born pop of 46.6million (~14% of total pop)<p>The next biggest is Germany, with 12 Million (~15%)
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known将近 5 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Tragedy_of_the_commons" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Tragedy_of_the_commons</a>
aaron695将近 5 年前
Every argument in this document seemed to be for job creation in years to come.<p>People need the jobs today.<p>Does no one get we are in a pandemic?<p>Long term thinking is out. We need to survive for the next 5 years and work out how, it&#x27;s going to be hard and will involve really large sacrifices.<p>This seems like the delusions of academics - &quot;upward pressure on American wages&quot; We are struggling to get jobs FFS.
anticonformist将近 5 年前
American universities sell out their limit capacities to foreign students for huge amounts of money. This forces out huge numbers of American students from attaining the educations they need to get the jobs many H1B workers take.<p>Space at top American universities is currently a zero sum game by design. Many top universities could easily afford to expand. They choose not to for purely unethical reasons.<p>And then American tech companies hire these (and more) foreign citizens to avoid the expense of investing in the American education system as well as directly drive salaries and increase employee retention.<p>And that&#x27;s not even the worst part. The fact is that big tech companies are almost never using the H1B as intended. Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and all of them are hiring (using the H1B) for roles that could in 99% of cases be filled by Americans. It would just drive up costs significantly if foreign workers were not added to the labor pool. The data is all public and plain for anyone to see.<p>The price of real estate in the Bay Area is also currently a zero sum game.<p>American tech companies and universities, in conspiracy with corrupt politicians, have betrayed the country that made their existence possible.<p>Just as all American organizations have an ethical duty to pay taxes, they also have an ethical duty to benefit American citizens above foreign citizens when there is a conflict in their interests.<p>There is nothing wrong with an ethically oriented &quot;America first&quot; policy. Putting your family first above strangers is perfectly reasonable and good.<p>And yes, I agree Trump is an unethical incompetent. But his nose for unethical scams is what makes the H1B scam so transparent to him. He has also exploited the H1B scam himself and probably laughed about it with his fellow assholes.
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dragonwriter将近 5 年前
How rich or poor “America” is is something no one really cares about. The people who pretend to care do so to avoid saying the policy they propose will make themselves rich, often at the expense of a larger number of other Americans. That&#x27;s quite obviously the case when capitalists support policies designed to constrain increases in skilled labor prices and thereby inflate capital returns.<p>This is not a knock on the article content, which is good (though not without problems), but the headline addressing an abstraction that is always a distraction from real interests.
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jagannathtech将近 5 年前
How about America stop poaching the best minds from all other countries and making those countries poorer.
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