What if aviation doesn’t recover?

Aviation has always been implicitly or explicitly state supported. Worrying about the market is just a farce.<p>Think about how research is done, the aircraft makers get fat on their defense grants, airport land and infrastructure are built with subsidies, the transportation to and from the airport are usually public buses, metro, or public roads, the regulation of airspace by the FAA is taxpayer funded, the security theater is provided by DHS, it goes on and on. Only the most visible part of the system is really &quot;deregulated&quot; and run by people trying to make money. Even then they get bailed out whenever they whimper.

Key excerpt:<p>&quot;That covid-19 has exposed the fragility of globalisation is particularly apparent in the case of aviation. [...] historians will write that it was not radical environmental movements such as Extinction Rebellion that killed the trend. Instead it was the combination of a microscopic virus and free-market capitalism.&quot;<p>This reminded me of accelerationism [1], which seems more relevant now than ever. To quote Wikipedia: &quot; [Accelerationism may refer] to support for the intensification of capitalism in the belief that this will hasten its self-destructive tendencies and ultimately lead to its collapse&quot;<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Accelerationism" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Accelerationism</a>

<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;KXh7w" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;KXh7w</a>

It will recover. The current investors might not.

I&#x27;m struck by our possible near-term loss of aviation and a possible post-melange loss of space travel.<p>(Then again: 140 characters not flying cars.)

If aviation doesn’t recover then it’s back to the old days when a ticket costs a minimum of $1000 and only a privileged few can travel very far. Hopefully no one who is retiring now had plans to travel the world because whatever they saved up won’t be enough.

I suppose it would be too much to hope for more trains.

Paywall. Can we get access to the full post?

it would be very sad and a huge net negative for the world.<p>Being able to cheaply and quickly travel practically anywhere makes us see others as much less different from us and helps us see global issues as <i>our</i> issues

I hope it doesn&#x27;t and I&#x27;m disgusted with the romanticization of something so utterly destructive and unnecessary. The right thing is to never travel with plane again. I&#x27;m glad I live in a country where flying became taboo long before corona.

I&#x27;m banking on a political wind-shifting event where suddenly the vogue thing to do will be to allow all commerce to proceed like normal and social distancing will suddenly be relaxed. Not sure what political events would cause that to happen but it is within the realm of possibility.

So what? While the convenience of air travel is nice, I think the environmental cost right now is too great -- don&#x27;t get me wrong, I love being able to hop on a plane and travel to say France (not that I can do that anymore with C19). It&#x27;s somewhat selfish though, there&#x27;s a pretty decent CO2 cost associated with it.<p>Maybe I get to go overseas if I make a commitment to offsetting the CO2 that I use (e.g. carbon credits) ... but that&#x27;s hardly very progressive (why should only the wealthy only get to travel).<p>I suppose we could try to clean up shipping [bunker fuel] so we could go via some sort of gas turbine &#x2F; wind powered cruise ship.<p>Or maybe this change in economic fortunes makes solar powered airships viable! Slow(-ish), but clean (&amp; maybe fun!), I&#x27;m thinking the Mark Twain airship in &quot;The Long Earth&quot;.<p>... I think I like the Mark Twain airship idea ... it sounds fun.