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Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

189 点作者 jqcoffey将近 5 年前

27 条评论

nimbius将近 5 年前
as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure.<p>Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote monitoring capability beyond whats detected at the line. Operators tend to baby these stations intentionally as their failure could spark massive outages across the grid (again, due to older design considerations)<p>Now this part might get a little political, but these substations&#x2F;transfer depots&#x2F;etc... arent just old because the outage would hit a lot of customers at once, but because NIMBY groups frequently oppose building or augmenting existing substations. Wild claims related to electromagnetism basically kill the project at every level.<p>its also worth noting that the nytimes might not be taking into account the number of people working from home. Duty and loadcycles for this year are going to be very hard to predict.
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lisper将近 5 年前
Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I&#x27;m here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It&#x27;s Different. I&#x27;ve lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn&#x27;t need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A&#x2F;C did not fit into our worldview.<p>For the first few years, we rarely used the A&#x2F;C. Then one year we had a Horrible Heat Wave that lasted two or three days. The A&#x2F;C ran more or less continuously during that time, but managed to mostly keep up. And it always cooled off at night.<p>In subsequent years we had period recurrences of 2-3 day heat events that caused our A&#x2F;C to run quite a lot but still keep up. This latest heat event has seen the A&#x2F;C running three days now with no relief forecast until Thursday. Worse, it&#x27;s not cooling off much at night the way it always used to. For the first time in ten years we are having to run the A&#x2F;C at night instead of opening windows in order to sleep.<p>Frankly, the trend scares the living shit out of me. The speed at which these changes are manifesting themselves in our little microclimate is just mind-boggling.
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makomk将近 5 年前
Having looked at the graphs on the CAISO website, I think they had a supply problem and the New York Times is being a little disingenuous here. You can bring up the renewables graph for the 14th here (change the date): <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.caiso.com&#x2F;TodaysOutlook&#x2F;Pages&#x2F;supply.aspx" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.caiso.com&#x2F;TodaysOutlook&#x2F;Pages&#x2F;supply.aspx</a> At 6 PM, they had about 5.2 GW of solar still coming in. That rapidly and predictably dropped to zero over the next hour and a half. If my rough maths is correct that alone would be enough to wipe out almost the entire 12 percent operating reserve. There&#x27;s also a really interesting graph of demand vs net demand minus solar and wind on the other page; you can see that total demand flattens out near the top, but net demand - which is what the grid operator has to find generating capacity to fill - continues to ramp up aggressively right up until the peak.
rconti将近 5 年前
Mr Powers is pushing an interesting conspiracy theory in this article, which I haven&#x27;t seen discussed yet. I haven&#x27;t seen anyone else backing it up in other sources, but of course it&#x27;s still early in the reporting on this issue.<p>&gt;In particular, California ISO said two natural gas power plants shut down on Friday and, on Saturday, a wind farm and another gas plant stopped producing power.<p>The state is currently reviewing proposals to extend the operation of old natural gas plants in Southern California. Environmentalists want the plants to remain closed because they use fossil fuels and are cooled using seawater, endangering marine life.<p>“It makes for a compelling story” if you have blackouts because of a lack of power plants, Mr. Powers said. “We know there is no capacity problem,” he said. “Something odd happened.”
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cheezerman将近 5 年前
What&#x27;s going to happen when they close Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant? [1] It currently provides 9% of the state&#x27;s power (2256MW).<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant</a>
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c3534l将近 5 年前
I remember hearing about rolling blackouts in California as this mysterious problem that occurred after privatization, then after Enron broke, it was revealed that they&#x27;d been engineering blackouts in pump &amp; dump schemes. Any chance there&#x27;s a relationship between these blackouts and the older ones? Or are we sure this is some completely new phenomenon?
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Animats将近 5 年前
Too much solar to handle evening A&#x2F;C load?<p>Rarely does northern California have heavy A&#x2F;C loads in the evening. Solar power output and heat load usually match well. But not this week. Usually, peak loads are around 2 PM, at air conditioning peak. This power restriction is for 3 PM to 10 PM, which presumably comes from evening A&#x2F;C loads while buildings cool down.<p>Wind is all over the place, up and down by a factor of 4, unrelated to time of day.
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mcbishop将近 5 年前
Here&#x27;s a more nuanced (i.e. geekier) article on what caused these rolling blackouts, from a quality new-energy publication: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.greentechmedia.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;read&#x2F;how-californias-shift-from-natural-gas-to-solar-is-playing-a-role-in-rolling-blackouts" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.greentechmedia.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;read&#x2F;how-californias...</a>
whiddershins将近 5 年前
I wonder how much it matters that home ac is almost universally less efficient, by a huge margin, than office ac.
WalterBright将近 5 年前
One way to deal with this is to have variable electric rates - cheaper rates when plenty of power is available, and more expensive when less. This incentivizes consumers to time shift their usage.<p>For example, evening A&#x2F;C use can be time shifted to the day, by cooling the house more during the day, so less is needed in the evening. The thermal mass of a house has a lot of inertia (and can be increased by adding, say, a pile of rocks).<p>The idea of a fixed 24&#x2F;7 electricity rate is hopelessly obsolete.
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neonate将近 5 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;wiAZQ" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.is&#x2F;wiAZQ</a>
rossdavidh将近 5 年前
So, not saying this is the main driver here, but just wondering: with a lot of people working from home, rather than an office building, it becomes relevant which is more efficient to cool. I have to think that it is more efficient to cool a single, larger building than many smaller ones? Again, not saying it&#x27;s the primary reason, just mentioning that it could be a contributing factor.
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jeffbee将近 5 年前
Would love to know what changes day-to-day. According to CAISO dashboard, they are currently delivering 45 GW, while yesterday they were shedding load before they hit 44 GW. So, what aspect of supply changed? We&#x27;re importing the same amount but we&#x27;re getting 5 GW more natural gas supply than yesterday. Are there ... are there nat. gas plants that only operate on weekdays?
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fredliu将近 5 年前
I start to see tweets attributing the CA power outages to increased degree of renewable energies that are &quot;inherently unreliable&quot;(solar, wind), on the supply side of the equation. And of course the tweets are very politically charged, making it hard to judge how true those claims are. Anybody has more insights on these claims?
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plorg将近 5 年前
The best I can make sense of this article, there may have been, overall, enough generating capacity on the grid, but not enough transmission capacity in particular locations. The closest anything in this article is the bizarre state statement that &quot;no one says it was congestion&quot;. But spiking LMP&#x27;s pretty much exactly indicate either congestion or insufficient generation in particular areas. In fact, in the case that, overall, there is sufficient generation, these conditions are the same. What it might mean is that there is some network condition, e.g. some generation or transmission out on scheduled maintenance, that puts the grid in a less-than secure state, such that higher than expected demand causes transmission in unexpected areas of the network.
briandear将近 5 年前
Why does Texas not have these power problems? They have their own separate power grid and in my lifetime I can’t remember ever having rolling blackouts due to demand spikes.<p>It seems like California suffers from policy problems rather than technological ones.<p>Why doesn’t California embrace nuclear power? Traditionally most of France’s power has been nuclear and it has worked fine for decades. Interestingly the initiatives to switch to renewable energy specific excluded nuclear and hydro. Politics seem to get in the way of good policy. Rather than pleading to conserve power, why not generate more of it? When people are starving, the solution isn’t to tell everyone to eat less, but to produce more.
dragonwriter将近 5 年前
The headline says it leaves experts stumped, the body of the article makes it clear that it was largely because three natural gas plants were shutdown in what seems to be an effort to build political support for extending the operating life of older natural gas plants.
robomartin将近 5 年前
I think I can say that our entire neighborhood is up in arms about what&#x27;s going on with SCE in general. In the last few months people have received bills that amount to 10 to 20 times their usual bill.<p>In our case, with a 13 kW solar array, our usual bill is in the order of $15 per month and has been so for years. Last month our bill was $350 and the prior month $184. We have been sending excess energy to SCE for years. I built a larger system than normal in preparation for electric vehicles. Which means that, at times, we send as much as 6 kW or so back. None of that mattered.<p>What complicates everything is that we were auto-magically signed-up for CPA (Clean Power Alliance). Which is, as far as I am concerned, a government run scam (sorry if this offends anyone). By &quot;we&quot; I mean, most of our neighborhood and town.<p>What makes this a mess is that SCE can&#x27;t talk about CPA rates and CPA can&#x27;t talk about SCE billing. One, in theory, provides the electricity and the other charges you for the transport and some fees. If you have ever tried to make sense out of one of these bills you know exactly what I am talking about. I have spent hours on the phone will SCE billing people and they can&#x27;t tell me how some of it is actually calculated, even managers don&#x27;t know.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cleanpoweralliance.org&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;cleanpoweralliance.org&#x2F;</a><p>What makes it even worse is that the rate comparison tools and calculators available before the transition to CPA+SCE evaporated after the transition. The SCE website has been a mess for about two years and not having access to rate comparison tools makes it even worse. Billing and data clarity is obfuscated, to say the least.<p>Some of us are now in the process of opting out of CPA just to that we can talk to a single point of contact and actually discuss the bill. With CPA in the loop it is impossible because CPA and SCE point fingers at each other and consumers are left in the middle wondering what the heck happened.<p>Even beyond that, SCE told everyone that they had &quot;grandfathered rates&quot;. This are the TOU-D-A and TOU-D-B rates from a few years ago. One of the things that changed radically with respect to that time is that some of the costs per kWh have more than tripled. When inquiring about how this could happen with &quot;grandfathered rates&quot; we were told that the <i>rate schedule</i> was grandfathered not the cost per kWh. In other words, the demarcation times between &quot;On peak&quot;, &quot;Off peak&quot; and &quot;Super off peak&quot; remain fixed but your cost per kWh changes.<p>This is the most dishonest use of the term &quot;grandfathered&quot; I have seen in my life. This might not make sense to readers outside of the US. Here, the term refers to a condition being protected from future changes. Anyone who heard that term pretty much assumed their <i>costs</i> were locked in, not just the times for each rate. From my perspective this was a swindle.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Grandfather_clause" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Grandfather_clause</a><p>Frankly, this is about as anti-consumer as one can get. The average person isn&#x27;t equipped to run through even the simplest electrical power calculations, they just don&#x27;t understand. Add to this the complexities of tiered and time-of-day systems, varying rates and costs of transport, energy vs. power calculations, area under the power curve (which is what you pay for), difficulty in understanding energy utilization, etc. and you have the makings for a public that is powerless against this complexity.<p>I am quite comfortable with mathematics and complex financial modelling and still had to devote hours to getting enough answers from SCE to attempt to create a model in Excel in order to understand what happened during the last few months, not just for us but also our neighbors. Even with that, the decision had to be made to opt-out of CPA because the math is simply too complex and nebulous. Not to mention that I have better things to do with my life.<p>The decisions people like myself made a few years back --in my case the 13 kW system-- were based on promises made --a contract-- with SCE. Never in my life I would have thought that a system of this size would result in us having to pay for electricity. And so here we are. If this continues the ROI will be negative forever and the size of the system would either have to increase by 50% or more or batteries will have to be added in order to manage consumption at lower rate-per-kWh times of the day (which can change at the will of SCE).<p>I am literally working on this as we speak, so the pain and aggravation is fresh and real. At some point legal action might become the only recourse, I don&#x27;t know. My neighbors are absolutely livid, unlike me (I engineered, bought and installed my own system), they ended-up with a range of leasing and other arrangements from a number of different vendors. The typical systems these vendors install are based on the rate structure at the time of system installation and only seek to achieve a baseline cost structure between lease payments and electricity purchase beyond generation. As rates and billing complexity changed, some of these folks are finding out that their 3.5 kW system is now almost useless and their electricity costs are going off the rails. The trouble is, they will have to pay on these leases for years and years.<p>This is a mess.
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vmception将近 5 年前
Jeffrey Skilling is out of prison and working on a blockchain energy venture with Lou Pai<p>Just check to make sure they arent holding California’s power for ransom pending payment to a random Bitcoin address
tln将近 5 年前
The article ends with:<p>“If there’s really a problem and not just the ISO jumping the gun, it’s going to manifest tomorrow,” Mr. Marcus said. “Tomorrow evening, the wolf arrives.”<p>What is that referencing?
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scrumbledober将近 5 年前
If the state could magically have enough battery capacity in every county to smooth out this curve, what scale of battery installation would that take?
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artiagarwal将近 5 年前
So now West Coast is coming at par with the developing world.
spiritplumber将近 5 年前
Wasn&#x27;t this the B plot of the second Batman movie from the early 90s?
google234123将近 5 年前
Only in California do you have to pay twice as much as the average on electricity and also deal with these blackouts. Thanks environmentalists...
Lammy将近 5 年前
The electricity might be off but the text message they sent to tell me about it calls it an “outage” and not a “blackout” so at least their priorities are in the right place :v
java-man将近 5 年前
The sooner we switch to solar and grid battery storage, the better. There should be no excuse whatsoever not to do that now.<p>What reasoning is holding us up?
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YarickR2将近 5 年前
I wonder what would Tesla owners do during fire-induced blackouts. With wrong combination of returning from long drive to homes without power, and fire hazard warnings, people owning only electrical cars could become trapped really bad. Unfortunately, Teslas are a part of a problem for now, being power hogs .
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