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Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

60 点作者 krjachkov超过 4 年前

6 条评论

lettergram超过 4 年前
It seems cases and pandemic related deaths are likely dramatically under reported and detected:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;austingwalters.com&#x2F;u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-deaths-no-end-in-sight&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;austingwalters.com&#x2F;u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death...</a><p>Real deaths seem to be closer to 250-300k at this point (whereas officially it’s 170k-180k).<p>Also testing is down for those curious... about 25% down from a month ago.<p><i>edit</i>: added “pandemic related deaths” - not all deaths are necessarily covid, but could be from lack of healthcare availability, etc.
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dankle超过 4 年前
&gt; 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310)<p>So between 1000 and 14 million. Got it.
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SpicyLemonZest超过 4 年前
Interesting. An estimate that infections were <i>multiple</i> orders of magnitude higher than detected in mid-March is higher than I&#x27;d heard before, although I suppose it&#x27;s probably implied by the &quot;basically everyone in New York caught it&quot; theory.
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_Gyan_超过 4 年前
Delhi, at least, appears to have around a 5% detection rate over the past month.<p>There was a population-wide serosurvey conducted from Aug 1st to 7th, which resulted in a 29.1% prevalence estimate, and an earlier one from June 27th to July 10th, which resulted in a 22.8% estimate. Assuming a 2 week period for IgG to be detected after infection, these surveys correspond to prevalence as of 20th July and 20th June roughly. With a population of 20M, that&#x27;s around 1.25M new infections in that period. The confirmed cases by PCR testing increased by ~60000, yielding (roughly) a detection rate of 5%.
dehrmann超过 4 年前
I&#x27;ve been looking at the infection rates in the US falling over the past few weeks, and I&#x27;m wondering if it&#x27;s because we achieved herd immunity for the current r0, people changed their behavior when they saw cases rising, or fewer people are getting tested because with the lag in processing time, a positive result isn&#x27;t actionable.
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kgin超过 4 年前
I seem to be hitting trying to read this. Can someone help summarize the results of this analysis?
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