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Mental Model: Second Order Thinking

71 点作者 remotists超过 4 年前

9 条评论

lucraft超过 4 年前
Here&#x27;s a mental model I&#x27;ve discovered that has been useful for me:<p>&quot;Even if you have cleverly identified a second-order effect in the opposite direction, it doesn&#x27;t mean it actually outweighs the magnitude of the first-order effect – you still have to check.&quot;
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haltingproblem超过 4 年前
The mental model notes are quite interesting to read but applying them is another matter. I have been reading mental models for a couple decades now and I honed in on one - invert always invert. This <i>one</i> simple rule has been really hard to apply.<p>Let me give an analogy of trying to reason about physical properties from first principles. This is another popular exhortation - think from first principles just like Feynman or Fermi. I can think from first principles in one extremely narrow field where I happen to have half a decade of education and 20 years of experience. To reason from first principles like Fermi or Feynman in a broad domain like physics requires a world class mind, a world class education and a world of experience.<p>Most mental model writing is akin to consuming youtube fitness porn. It looks easy to do, you look cool doing it and the end results are just spectacular. However, like Arnold or David Goggins it requires an inhuman dedication, purpose, ability to withstand pain, bounce back from trauma and just keep sacrificing. Most of the time the only person benefiting is the video creator from the ad-roll.<p>I appreciate the posts but I now believe these mental models are incredibly hard to do and like most of the self-improvement&#x2F;growth hacking genre is just good for entertainment and commerce 99.99% of the time.
mlboss超过 4 年前
A better method would be 5 whys(<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Five_whys" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Five_whys</a>). Keep asking whys until you discover the root cause. Or in this case until you discover the larger impact of an event.
orange_puff超过 4 年前
I find that the difference between how I make decisions and how people I consider smart make decisions is a difference of first order and second order thinking. In many ways I got lucky. I chose the computer science major and happened to love it, I became a software engineer and happened to love it. I did not think very deeply about these decisions. It&#x27;s ironic because my job is to think about the control flow of methods, and the potential consequences that could arise from some current design.<p>I am trying very hard to integrate second order thinking into my decision making process.
motohagiography超过 4 年前
Question from me would be, what are the necessary conditions in an organization to create a culture that rewards recognizing and mitigating cognitive biases? Imagining that a series of Rationalist interview questions would seem a bit culty, and run the risk of going full Bridgewater.
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trishankdatadog超过 4 年前
Nassim Taleb has been saying this forever, he first talked about it in at least Antifragile IIRC.
warpech超过 4 年前
Is there any software that helps to perform the second order thinking?
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josefrichter超过 4 年前
well, the article itself mentions it is &quot;an age old idea&quot;..
nathias超过 4 年前
it&#x27;s called speculation and it gets more speculative with each successive assumption