The conclusions are from observing "one route of the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA)".<p>That means it depends strongly on the accuracy of the predictive software used. In principle it could include the chance of, for example, the driver making up lost time.<p>The paper is at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856420307229?via%3Dihub" rel="nofollow">https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09658...</a> . It's paywalled.