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The Covid Science Wars

104 点作者 johntfella超过 4 年前

21 条评论

ashton314超过 4 年前
Good science should be open to new ideas. I&#x27;m totally on board with mask wearing, social distancing, isolating when possible, etc. etc., but always keeping in mind the possibility that <i>we could be wrong</i> is a crucial factor in coming to objective truth through empirical means.<p>Reminds me of this blog post I read a while back: <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;scott.wiersdorf.org&#x2F;blarney&#x2F;science" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;scott.wiersdorf.org&#x2F;blarney&#x2F;science</a><p>It&#x27;s hard to disagree cordially and constructively when you perceive the &quot;other side&quot; as being uninformed, unenlightened, rude, or careless. We&#x27;re really good at furnishing examples of such people which we generalize to represent the entire opposition.<p>I try and get over this by thinking what values other people have that might lead them to the conclusions that they do. I also try and think about what factors led them to the sets of information that they&#x27;re working with. That has two effects: 1.) I&#x27;m less mad at them (usually), and 2.) I can understand how to talk to their concerns and worries, rather than just at them. I can&#x27;t change other people, so I try and change myself.<p>I&#x27;m not saying I&#x27;m perfect at that—this doesn&#x27;t always work as well as I&#x27;d like. What helps you to sympathize and communicate with others?
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fastball超过 4 年前
My question is mostly just &quot;how do we draw the line in the sand?&quot;<p>The fact is that if mask-wearing and lockdowns prevent the spread of this virus, they&#x27;ll work for the flu too. If there is a moral imperative to use these methods for COVID, why would there not also be a moral imperative to use them for the flu?<p>Where do you draw the line?
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umvi超过 4 年前
&gt; In today’s COVID-19 wars, the global scientific divide leans heavily in favor of active, and sometimes even draconian, public health interventions, including widespread locking down of nonessential business, mandating masks, restricting travel and imposing quarantines. On the other side, some doctors, scientists and public health officials are questioning the wisdom of this approach in the face of massive unknowns about their efficacy and in light of the clear and growing evidence that such measures may not be working in some cases, and may also be causing net harm.<p>It&#x27;s very hard to dissent against the current narrative because any dissent can easily be framed as &quot;killing people&quot;. I blame technology for our current predicament. If we didn&#x27;t have computers and a global internet, there&#x27;s no way we would be shutting down everything. We might be wearing masks and washing hands, but I would bet life would be largely the same.<p>But because technology dangled the carrot of &quot;we can save lives by doing everything virtually with computers&quot; we are charging down that path optimizing for lives saved without giving fair consideration to other side effects of that (loneliness, depression, suicide, homelessness, civil unrest, economy). In some ways, taking a one time &quot;excess deaths&quot; hit as we have done with past pandemics <i>does</i> have measurable benefits in other ways, but you&#x27;ll get shouted out of the room if you bring up that position even as a hypothetical.
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fabian2k超过 4 年前
There is a lot unknown about the effects of various measures used to contain COVID-19. But the consequences of doing nothing are reasonably well known. We know the death rate by age well enough, we can suspect that there are significant long-term effects in survivors even if we don&#x27;t know the full extent.<p>We also know that reducing contacts reduces the transmission of diseases like COVID-19. We might have no hard data on how well each measure works, but we know that reducing contacts does work in general.<p>The part I find problematic are the very generic &quot;just protect the vulnerable populations&quot; calls. I mean that would be a great solution for a virus with this kind of strong age dependency in lethality. But I still have no idea at all how we are supposed to protect the vulnerable populations while the virus is spreading among everyone else. For me this is just a slogan, not a real solution. I don&#x27;t see how it could be possible to let the virus surge in a large part of the population while still reliably isolating everyone above 60 or so. I honestly don&#x27;t see any way this can work at all, so I&#x27;m entirely baffled by this line of argument.
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jjgreen超过 4 年前
It is interesting to note that Thomas Lars Benfield&#x27;s Danish mask study, whose empirical results are at odds with the &quot;majoritarian view&quot; mentioned in the article, has yet to be reported by the BBC.
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snowysunday超过 4 年前
The article is creating a &#x27;debate&#x27; while completely missing out on the third and better option of getting rid of the virus as much as possible (Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, ...)
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jariel超过 4 年前
Wow.<p>Public Policy and Academic Discussions are not the same thing.<p>If you tell 100M people to change their lives dramatically, there&#x27;s a 100% chance death threats will be involved. There are always naysaysers. We got death threats when seatbelts were legally enforced.<p>That&#x27;s not to say public policy is always correct.<p>But what we talk about in inner circles, what we publish ... should be open. We shouldn&#x27;t be oppressing such-and-such periodical because they say this or that.<p>Unfortunately, publications do make their way into the headlines as Fox and CNN pluck, selectively from the stack and misrepresent findings to suit their narrative.<p>Which may in fact point at the real problem ... making better firewalls between &#x27;serious discussion&#x27; and &#x27;public communications&#x27;. Scientists don&#x27;t like being misrepresented either.
nromiun超过 4 年前
The main problem these days is that people will say anything they want in the name of science and if you even dare to express the slightest doubt you will be called a science denier. It&#x27;s like science has become a religion and you aren&#x27;t allowed to express doubt, no matter how contradictory some of those positions may be. Scientific discussion is tolerated, but only if they agree with these viewpoints. If they don&#x27;t they get &quot;fact-checked&quot; and removed from the internet as soon as possible.<p>Also, it is pretty ironic how Scientific American is crying about science getting less evidence based and more politically motivated. I don&#x27;t remember them staying out of politics in the last American election.
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sleepysysadmin超过 4 年前
The author seems unaware that covid isn&#x27;t science. It&#x27;s politics.<p>&gt;Advocates on both sides have dug in, hurling dismissive and vitriolic attacks at individuals in the other camp.<p>In other words politics. Only in politics are your opponents uninformed, unenlightened, rude, and careless.<p>If we create a venn diagram of science fields and politics fields. The only place in science where we call the science deniers or call for censorship is where politics get involved.<p>Now that you know it&#x27;s politics and not science. Evaluate the goal. Evaluate which politics is behind it. Weird I keep hearing about a great reset.<p>For example, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amnesty.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;latest&#x2F;news&#x2F;2020&#x2F;09&#x2F;france-thousands-of-protesters-wrongly-punished-under-draconian-laws-in-pre-and-post-covid19-crackdown&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amnesty.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;latest&#x2F;news&#x2F;2020&#x2F;09&#x2F;france-thousa...</a><p>Why France has made it illegal for you to leave your home and police can enter and search your home at any time.
kelchm超过 4 年前
This is tangential, but I came across an interesting paper from 2012 on the usage of face masks in Japan. I had preconceived notions that the prevalence of mask use in Japan was solely driven by collectivist culture. If nothing else, this was a good reminder that even groups that appear to be homogenous to an outside observer have diversity in their views.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;onlinelibrary.wiley.com&#x2F;doi&#x2F;full&#x2F;10.1111&#x2F;j.1467-9566.2012.01466.x" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;onlinelibrary.wiley.com&#x2F;doi&#x2F;full&#x2F;10.1111&#x2F;j.1467-9566...</a>
pjc50超过 4 年前
It is absolutely worth questioning which public health measures work, and recognising that they are very costly.<p>However, too many people seem to be blasé about the cost of <i>not</i> having effective public health measures. And many don&#x27;t seem to have recognised that some countries <i>have</i> brought COVID down to near-zero - and as a result don&#x27;t need the measures!<p>It&#x27;s a complex space of risk management.
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pelasaco超过 4 年前
Somehow that&#x27;s an answer for this article <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25179416" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=25179416</a>
georgewfraser超过 4 年前
The thing that has really surprised me is that public health officials are expressing so much confidence that masks work, despite the evidence being quite meh [1]. There have been many attempts to demonstrate that masks prevent transmission of flu and overall the results are weak&#x2F;negative. The focus on masks has trade offs. People have finite attention, so the focus on masks diminishes the attention we apply to other interventions.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.publichealthontario.ca&#x2F;-&#x2F;media&#x2F;documents&#x2F;ncov&#x2F;covid-wwksf&#x2F;what-we-know-public-masks-apr-7-2020.pdf?la=en" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.publichealthontario.ca&#x2F;-&#x2F;media&#x2F;documents&#x2F;ncov&#x2F;co...</a>
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mturmon超过 4 年前
Note: This is an opinion article, and is definitely <i>not</i> a properly-contextualized roundup article on the topic.<p>Noting this clarifies some omissions from the narrative in the article -- e.g., the Sweden &quot;success&quot; is definitely mixed [1], and the US administration&#x27;s messaging has been deliberately anti-science.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;370&#x2F;6513&#x2F;159" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;370&#x2F;6513&#x2F;159</a>
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VikingCoder超过 4 年前
&quot;Only by entertaining a broader, scientifically informed view of what might work will the next phase of COVID-19 control be acceptable to a deeply divided public.&quot;<p>Sorry, but that&#x27;s a claim without evidence - that the public might accept the next phase of COVID-19 control.
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zyxzevn超过 4 年前
Science was the first victim of covid-1984.
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IfOnlyYouKnew超过 4 年前
What&#x27;s the debate?<p>Does not going to indoor weddings decrease your chance of infection? Yes, obviously. Do masks work? Very likely, yes[1]. Do masks harm? Lol, no. What&#x27;s the optimal balance between prevention of infection and allowing life&#x2F;the economy to continue as usual? Hard to say. Is anyone prevented from debating that question? Not according to the ten articles I see on that question every day. Hydroxychloroquine? Now that you&#x27;re asking, I&#x27;ve a newfound appreciation for the idea of having died, say, 86 seconds ago...<p>That question of trade-offs, by the way, isn&#x27;t even a question of science any more, but values. So it would be out of scope wrt to this article.<p>[1]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;mmwr&#x2F;volumes&#x2F;69&#x2F;wr&#x2F;mm6947e2.htm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.cdc.gov&#x2F;mmwr&#x2F;volumes&#x2F;69&#x2F;wr&#x2F;mm6947e2.htm</a>
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jeffrallen超过 4 年前
All extremism is bad. Even this comment.
acqq超过 4 年前
In this case, reading first the end of the page helps understanding the position of the authors:<p>&quot;Clarification added after publication: the authors have collaborated in the past with <i>both John Ioannidis and Vinay Prasad</i>, who are discussed in this essay and in the accompanying sidebar.&quot;<p>There is also obvious bias in the content of the article, which I guess is explainable by being an &quot;opinion&quot; where I guess the authors can&#x27;t be told by the editors to change the content with the goal of reducing the bias -- I guess by definition they are expected to be &quot;opinionated.&quot;<p>The article is written in the tone of questioning if the government mandated measures work at all and published exactly as we can observe the measures explicitly working across Europe, sinking the numbers of the registered cases:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-07-29..latest&amp;country=GBR~DEU~FRA~CZE~ITA&amp;region=World&amp;casesMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;ourworldindata.org&#x2F;coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToS...</a><p>It should also be pointed to the fact that all the European states didn&#x27;t decide to introduce the measurements for the sake of it but because their health systems reached the point of being overwhelmed, which for some of European countries would be the second time. In all these countries, the &quot;dilemma&quot; as presented in the article is simply false: all of them first waited hoping that the measurements wouldn&#x27;t be necessary and introduced them practically as they had no other acceptable choice.<p>The &quot;hard&quot; lockdown first time worked in Italy in the Spring, allowing for very low case count during the Summer there.
justicezyx超过 4 年前
&gt; As people are thrown out of work as a direct result of lockdowns, and as more and more families find themselves unable to cover their rent or food, there have been sharp increases in domestic violence, homelessness and illegal drug use.<p>This line of thoughts is quite puzzling to me. Domestic violence, drug uses are independent issues should be fixed by themselves.<p>In face of grave danger, there is always a balance to make, and usually their danger is so high that it usually has a overriding effect. This type of balance is not unique to covid, it literally happens everywhere all the time.
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raptorraver超过 4 年前
I ran into this online couple days ago and was really surprised that (according to this sites collection at least) there seems to be stronger evidence for masks not being effective for stopping spread of COVID: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;swprs.org&#x2F;face-masks-evidence&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;swprs.org&#x2F;face-masks-evidence&#x2F;</a><p>EDIT: I see downvotes and that&#x27;s okay I guess, but I&#x27;m not any kind of medical or scientific expert so I&#x27;d rather hear why you think this list is wrong. For me it looks like a comprehensive list of research about the topic.
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