The only proven approach to successful superforecasting.<p>1. Choose 2^N people.<p>2. Develop M binary forecasts, M < N.<p>3. Send half the sample a forecast of True, the other half the sample a forecast of False.<p>3. Whatever occurred, True or False, select the sub population to which you sent the correct forecast for further forecasting. Discard the other half.<p>4. Repeat the forecasting and culling until you have 2^(N-M) people remaining.<p>5. Announce to the 2^(N-M) that you are a superforecaster and milk them for all they are worth.