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Bitcoin still makes no sense

83 点作者 meow_mix超过 4 年前

25 条评论

jimmysong超过 4 年前
Posts like these make it clear to me that the author does not really understand money, not Bitcoin. It&#x27;s hard to reason about what Bitcoin&#x27;s advantages are without first considering what the purpose of money is and the analysis from this article is mostly just sniping at the edges about some of the perceived flaws and not the actual usefulness which is the good part of the trade-off.<p>For a better understanding of money and why Bitcoin is a better money, I would recommend this article:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;vijayboyapati.medium.com&#x2F;the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;vijayboyapati.medium.com&#x2F;the-bullish-case-for-bitcoi...</a><p>I&#x27;ll also toot my own horn a bit which also delves into this confusion:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Little-Bitcoin-Book-Matters-Finances&#x2F;dp&#x2F;1641990503" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Little-Bitcoin-Book-Matters-Finances&#x2F;...</a>
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ridaj超过 4 年前
It makes sense to me about as much as the trade in ancient coins, stamps, and other collectibles. These are reasonable asset classes if you like gambling, with a somewhat fixed supply, not a lot of industrial applications, and wild price fluctuations based entirely on subjective appreciation. Bitcoin is more liquid but otherwise the price dynamic looks about the same...
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1996超过 4 年前
To the people who really want to learn: you won&#x27;t get quality advice here.<p>BTC has been hated on HN since it&#x27;s creation. Even over 10 years later, the crypto luddites keep coming at it.<p>Learn by yourself instead of listening to the doomsayers: some people thought independently, like this person in 2011 who was ridiculed here: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=2596475" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=2596475</a><p>Check the discussion from 2017: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=15976946" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=15976946</a><p>Then the new one from 2020, 3 months before the current rally: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=24259700" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&#x2F;item?id=24259700</a><p>Then make your own judgement, as most of the people here won&#x27;t learn. They refuse to - they are too emotionally invested in their past lapse of judgement, so they need to rationalize it and double down, in the hope that maybe it will crash and everybody will know they were right all along!<p>It&#x27;s been going on for over 10 years, so follow their advice at your own risk.
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tomerico超过 4 年前
The problem with Bitcoin and is that it creates real negative effects, with little positive effects to show for it.<p>The most prominent negative effect is the huge energy waste, which doesn&#x27;t help when we are trying to cut on our carbon footprint<p>The second one is that it makes illegal activities easier, and at a larger scale. It&#x27;s quite common right now for companies to be coerced pay millions of dollars to anonymous criminals, all enabled with cryptocurrencies.<p>Unless equally sized positive effects would emerge, it creates a growing pressure on governments to regulate and potentially criminalize the usage of cryptocurrencies. If that happens, the monetary value will naturally fall down.
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prohobo超过 4 年前
This seems more like it&#x27;s questioning cryptocurrency itself, and putting it at odds with fiat currencies and states.<p>As for states, they&#x27;re rolling out their own cryptos. The Chinese have CryptoYuan, the EU central bank is releasing a currency likely by late 2021, and the Federal Reserve is also planning to create a new currency. That&#x27;s how they beat Bitcoin.<p>Fiat currency is likely going to be slowly phased out as cryptos take hold, like an old iPhone.<p>States will absolutely gain power if they adopt cryptos, because they can implement currencies that can always be tracked and disseminated much faster and easier than fiat.
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xiphias2超过 4 年前
Just buy the top rated book on Amazon (or download the pdf for free):<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central&#x2F;dp&#x2F;1119473861&#x2F;ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&amp;keywords=bitcoin&amp;qid=1607219233&amp;sr=8-3" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.amazon.com&#x2F;Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Altern...</a><p>The author didn&#x27;t really do serious research. I can imagine having doubts or questions after reading this book, but without basic knowledge about money there&#x27;s no point in arguing (I agree with Jimmy Song&#x27;s comment, but I find Saifedean&#x27;s book much better researched)
bawolff超过 4 年前
So to actually comment on the article instead of just ranting how bitcoin is either amazing or terrible:<p>&gt; I’m still trying to piece together what exactly how much control governments really lose under Bitcoin<p>Can&#x27;t you just compare it to the gold standard? Seems like we have a lot of history we could look at where gov could not print money how it pleased.<p>&gt; The enforcement of debt and the ability to track money seem, to me, like some of its most important properties. If I can’t tell how much Bitcoin someone has, how can they be made financially responsible in court?<p>Seems fairly easy to me - you ask them how much money they have, they tell you. If they lie, you throw them in jail. Its really no different than how we handle people who keep there money in the form of gold bars under the bed, or in offshore bank accounts. Sure you can sometimes get away with shinanigans, but its not a new problem.<p>&gt; I’m also interested in what a world with a fixed amount of currency really looks like. I would imagine “inflating away” debtors obligations through fiat would not really be on the table.<p>It would look like the gold standard. inflating away debt with fiat in a major way is pretty uncommon anyway and usually ends badly (Germany tried that and we ended up with WWII!)<p>&gt; 65% hashrate by china, 51%attack, etc<p>It should be noted that a 51% attack is generally something noticeable. Its not a secret attack. So that reduces risk somewhat. Also i thought 51% attacks were actually closer to only needing 33%.<p>&gt; Energy, environment<p>Yeah, i agree with author on these points. Ethereum is doing some interesting stuff here.
silexia超过 4 年前
There have been lots of other currencies privately traded previously, but since the state has the guns the state can outlaw it. If it truly started competing with major currencies you would see it outlawed.<p>It also is not secure as China is controlling a majority of the mining now and the majority can control the currency. Further, Google has a computer that can hack the encryption and you will see a lot more organizations have them soon.<p>It consumes more power than Switzerland. It&#x27;s bad for the environment.<p>It&#x27;s just a bubble and can be popped anytime.<p>Not to mention that it is just unusable for actual legal transactions on a regular basis.
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commonoddity超过 4 年前
Fiat currency is an agreement of settlement using an inflationary mechanism created at will with no work required to provide value. Bitcoins are an asset created in response to work performed, scaling proportionately with the work required giving it value. It really is that simple and makes perfect sense.
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postingpals超过 4 年前
I think there are technicalities to bitcoin that make typical economic reasoning futile, and as a result non-tech people argue for things they don&#x27;t really understand.<p>The energy consumption argument alone should completely destroy bitcoin&#x27;s prospects. I&#x27;m not sure how you can even apply classical economics principles to something as uniquely different as bitcoin. Maybe the cost means people should only trade in extremely high amounts of bitcoin so there are less transactions? I don&#x27;t know.
meow_mix超过 4 年前
Wow, this kind of blew up. Wasn&#x27;t really expecting that, as it&#x27;s just some notes from about a week of research, very part time.<p>I&#x27;ve got a lot here to read for the next newsletter. Thanks folks that gave insightful comments.<p>Feel free to read more about the process I&#x27;m taking with this newsletter or sign up:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;thinkoutloudnews.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;why-you-should-read-this-substack" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;thinkoutloudnews.substack.com&#x2F;p&#x2F;why-you-should-read-...</a>
ffwd超过 4 年前
some hobbyist observations, please correct me if I&#x27;m wrong:<p>&gt;I’m still trying to piece together what exactly how much control governments really lose under Bitcoin, whether I can see that as a positive or a negative, and whether I agree with Dalio that governments would (or could) take action to prevent it.<p>I don&#x27;t think they could control it at all, as I will get into in the next post<p>&gt;The enforcement of debt and the ability to track money seem, to me, like some of its most important properties<p>I don&#x27;t think you could track money at all, because I think in a world where bitcoin is dominant, you can bet that you would have many other cryptocurrencies as well. And you can today exchange btc for monero, ethereum or whatever and back again and it&#x27;s virtually untrackable who owns it or where it came from.<p>Because of this, governments could no longer do any automated taxation, they could no longer have any verification of who owns what, and so they would have to manually tax everyone based on manual observation of physical assets, as they probably couldn&#x27;t look into most peoples actual financial records either, unless it was voluntary. This is untenable of course<p>&gt;I’m also interested in what a world with a fixed amount of currency really looks like.<p>It wouldn&#x27;t be fixed in reality, and nobody would really know how much money exists and each currency and inflation would have to be determined individually and you would have booms and crashes based on just how individual markets supply&#x2F;demand progresses (i think?)
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mdoms超过 4 年前
&gt; Lyn talks about investing, so she shies away from long-term speculation<p>Isn&#x27;t that literally what investing is?
AtlasBarfed超过 4 年前
The environmental impact of bitcoin mining is the major argument against it. I don&#x27;t think it will be feasible in the long run. The fact there are allegedly mining farms in the Mongolian lake of dystopia Bautou undermines the infeasibility long term.<p>As pointed out elsewhere here, fiat currency is as equally arbitrary as bitcoin is.<p>Bitcoin&#x27;s age and seeming resistance to network manipulation and cracking over a long period of time is really the source of its enduring value.<p>In my personal opinion&#x2F;perception, the true devaluation of other cryptocurrencies occurred in the &quot;aaaand its gone&quot; twitter moment. Even if it was a joke&#x2F;stunt, it really highlighted the superfluous nature of almost all cryptocurrencies besides BTC.
mandragon超过 4 年前
What&#x27;s the risk for bitcoin pertinent to entrenched pre-quantum encryption? Are the wallet&#x2F;private key pairs based on such cryptography?<p>What&#x27;s the technical feasibility of migrating BTC&#x27;s pow scheme to quantum-resistant hashing?<p>What is the technical feasibility of migrating wallet&#x2F;private keys to quantum-resistant crypto?<p>Would any such migration of wallet&#x2F;private keys be dependent on public&#x2F;non-public interactions with the blockchain by wallet holders, and would those interactions introduce deanonymization or other risks?
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ThomPete超过 4 年前
Bitcoin makes a lot of sense. Not for physical things but for digital ones.<p>Bitcoin (crypto) will be used for second hand sales of digital items from gaming characters to digital weapons or other unique items across different games from completely different gaming developers.
KasianFranks超过 4 年前
It&#x27;s a trading vehicle.
tamrix超过 4 年前
Everyone wants to be rich through bitcoin as an investment. No one will actual use it as an everyday currency. If it is the winner of the cyrpto digital currency war. It will be the end of civilisation.
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dmitriid超过 4 年前
Bitcoin is just a part of a larger problem disucssed in these two articles fro m3 years ago. They are still as true as three years ago:<p>&quot;Ten years in, nobody has come up with a use for blockchain&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hackernoon.com&#x2F;ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;hackernoon.com&#x2F;ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-...</a><p>Follow up, &quot;Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future&quot;: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;@kaistinchcombe&#x2F;decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;medium.com&#x2F;@kaistinchcombe&#x2F;decentralized-and-trustle...</a>
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rmac超过 4 年前
There are no new inventions in finance. Be it tulips, joint stock enterprises, junk bonds, or good ol debt, it&#x27;s all been done before and will all come crashing down yet again, taking the speculative euphoria with it.
domatic1超过 4 年前
I&#x27;m still surprised that bitcoin is hated here, such a great technology. It&#x27;s a decentralised currency, and it&#x27;s working really well. A lot of big institutions are taking it seriously now. Does paper cash printed by government make more sense?
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root_axis超过 4 年前
Bitcoin is darknet money; it definitely makes sense in that context, but that&#x27;s about it.
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FruityCoconut超过 4 年前
It&#x27;s invaluable if you are involved in grey&#x2F;black market trade. I was briefly involved in a legal-yet-taboo industry years ago, and being able to instantly receive private payments from people on the other side of the world without permission from anyone (indeed, while payment processors were limiting and closing my accounts) was phenomenal. It made sense then.<p>In fact I became a bit of a Bitcoin evangelist in my circles, especially as it aligned with my then-libertarian worldview. (However, the questionable leadership of the core Bitcoin fork has mostly eroded that enthusiasm over time.)<p>Now, as a regular taxpayer, Bitcoin makes no sense to me either. And I say that as a fortunate person with a significant stake, and a retirement fund increasingly grateful to all the dumb money being poured into it.<p>Its popularity and exchange rate is not a function of its utility, but rather an indication of a disillusioned and frustrated middle class looking anywhere for financial relief. Cryptocurrency is lottery tickets for people who consider themselves too clever to buy lottery tickets. (Especially all of the new, more volatile cryptocurrencies popping up each day.) Governments would be well-advised not to deprive their taxpayers of this distracting fantasy.<p>You&#x27;ll know when you need it. Until then, if you want to take a gamble at timing your exit better than the next guy, thanks very much.
brighton36超过 4 年前
Bitcoin is a thneed.
seibelj超过 4 年前
Bitcoin is an asset the government simply cannot control. That’s the magic! Whether you think this is good or bad is for debate, but there are apps in every country where you can buy and hold bitcoin (even countries like Nigeria and Venezuela) and it doesn’t take that many people who value it globally to make BTC shoot up in price. If even 1 out of 1000 people on earth desired bitcoin, its value would go up and sustain it. So it doesn’t matter if 999 people dislike it - bitcoin (and crypto) is a niche that can grow much larger without much additional enthusiasm. And the fact it’s worth so much blows people’s minds, making it like a global phenomenon that markets itself every time it goes up.<p>No one makes you buy bitcoin! If you don’t like it, just ignore it. I could list many more arguments here as to why different sorts of people value it, from libertarians to drug dealers to hedge funds to people in countries that have terrible fiat currencies and corrupt central banks, but ultimately it’s a variation of the government not having control.<p>One final thought is that the term “currency” confuses a lot of people. Whether it can actually be used like a dollar is moot - it’s an asset that can be used sometimes like a currency, but being a true currency is not required for utility and value. It’s a misnomer.
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