Predictions Scorecard, 2021 January 01

&gt; Regular service of Hyperloop between two cities. [not until beyond December 31st, 2049]<p>I really don&#x27;t see this technology as being unattainable in the same way that robot self-awareness or mass-adoption of flying cars are.<p>There are plans for commercial operation to start in 2023 between Dubai and Abu Dhabi[0], and last year it received approval from the US Congress[1].<p>This could be a lot of hype, or even a scam, but that doesn&#x27;t mean the technology is 30 years away.<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.constructionweekonline.com&#x2F;projects-and-tenders&#x2F;260302-hyperloop-tts-commercial-operations-to-begin-in-2023" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.constructionweekonline.com&#x2F;projects-and-tenders&#x2F;...</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gulfnews.com&#x2F;uae&#x2F;transport&#x2F;uae-hyperloop-now-a-step-closer-to-reality-after-us-congress-ruling-1.72609186" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;gulfnews.com&#x2F;uae&#x2F;transport&#x2F;uae-hyperloop-now-a-step-...</a>

Such vague AI predictions.<p>“Academic rumblings about the limits of Deep Learning BY 2017”<p>“The technical press starts reporting about limits of Deep Learning, and limits of reinforcement learning of game play.”<p>“ VCs figure out that for an investment to pay off there needs to be something more than &quot;X + Deep Learning&quot;”<p>... a few more.<p>Every single AI related one had to do with what people were saying and thinking. No hard statements about what a system will not be able to do? Such as, fool humans easily into thinking text and videos are real by 20xx? Or any other concrete statement that isn’t just what people talk about?

Notice he won&#x27;t commit to any quantifiable short-term predictions that could come back to bite him in the future. No references to any ML benchmarks at all. Just a lot of hand waving and vague arguments.<p>A has been that has nothing to contribute towards ML or AI. Ignore him.

Aren&#x27;t these effectively lab tests of robots that can navigate a home?<p>[dancing] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw</a> [cleaning clutter] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=C8-w9eF24gU" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=C8-w9eF24gU</a>

Scott Galloway&#x27;s predictions for 2021 and review of 2020 predictions: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=umUmrzounFI" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=umUmrzounFI</a><p>I thought the content was good, though the constant yelling is a turn off.

Finally a futurologist i can relate to. Beat Kurzeweil hollow.