TE
科技回声
首页24小时热榜最新最佳问答展示工作
GitHubTwitter
首页

科技回声

基于 Next.js 构建的科技新闻平台,提供全球科技新闻和讨论内容。

GitHubTwitter

首页

首页最新最佳问答展示工作

资源链接

HackerNews API原版 HackerNewsNext.js

© 2025 科技回声. 版权所有。

Money Creation: 70% in the Last 12mo (Fed, M1, $)

53 点作者 Firecracker超过 4 年前

10 条评论

rojeee超过 4 年前
Remember that an increase in M1 doesn&#x27;t mean &quot;more money for everyone&quot;! It just means more reserves for banks.<p>I think the key thing here is to look at is increase of bank deposits (I.e. money for you and me). That is M2 MINUS central bank reserves and notes and coins in circulation. If you look at this you&#x27;ll see that bank deposits have only increased modestly despite the large increase in M1. From this you can infer that the FED&#x27;s &quot;money printing&quot; isn&#x27;t really affecting Main Street very much. I.e. currently not causing much inflation.<p>What&#x27;s happening? The FED is creating new reserves and using those to buy bonds. The reserves remain in financial institutions and should incentivise banks to lend - or at least that is the theory. Lending is how bank deposits (money for you and me) are created. The reserves which the FED creates to buy bonds (which are assets of commercial banks) doesn&#x27;t end up in people&#x27;s Bank accounts (which are liabilities of commercial banks). Instead, the reserves remain sloshing around in the banks.<p>My view is that money supply is endogenous. That is, new bank deposits are created when new loans are made. Currently, there is not a demand for loans so there won&#x27;t be a huge increase in the M2 money supply as a result of these FED bond purchases. Perhaps demand might increase in the future, in which case the US will see inflation. I suspect once the economy recovers and inflation (as measured by the FED) increases then they&#x27;ll start performing open market operations to sell the bonds they bought and thus remove the excess reserves from the financial system.
评论 #25831427 未加载
Firecracker超过 4 年前
Hey HN Friends,<p>I&#x27;m posting this because I was shocked when I saw this graph. I hadn&#x27;t previously appreciated just how much of an unprecedented explosion in the money supply there&#x27;d been this year.<p>In particular, it seems to quantify a <i>lot</i> of potential for long run inflation and a very expansionary monetary policy move required to prop up the economy during the pandemic. But I&#x27;m not an expert here; I&#x27;m hoping we can put our heads together. I&#x27;d be very curious to hear general discussion and insights into the dynamics. Let&#x27;s go, community of systems thinkers :)<p>While the M1 measure of money shows the change most dramatically, other ways of looking at the same data (dollars printed, M2, MZM, etc.) seem to tell the same story. There have also been some news articles written, but I thought that for HN, we&#x27;d go directly to the numbers.<p>Thanks for taking a look!
评论 #25830264 未加载
评论 #25828613 未加载
评论 #25830752 未加载
nabla9超过 4 年前
The FRED® Blog What’s behind the recent surge in the M1 money supply? <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fredblog.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply&#x2F;?utm_source=series_page&amp;utm_medium=related_content&amp;utm_term=related_resources&amp;utm_campaign=fredblog" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fredblog.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;whats-behind-the-rec...</a>
评论 #25828741 未加载
评论 #25842675 未加载
BlueTie超过 4 年前
Kings used to coin money, hand it out to the army and then collect taxes from the entire population that was paid in the same coin.<p>The Fed creates dollars, hands it out to bankers and then the US gov&#x27;t collects taxes from the entire population in the same dollars.<p>Same strategy, different masters.
评论 #25829145 未加载
评论 #25829190 未加载
评论 #25842532 未加载
jasunflower超过 4 年前
When your only weapon is a printer... I guess they have bonds and interest rates too...
Firecracker超过 4 年前
Looks like the bitcoin comment got killed, but I want to revive an interesting point at the heart of it:<p>Big monetary swings like this do bolster the case for it as an inflation-resistant value store...like gold (or stocks), both of which have risen quite a bit this year.
评论 #25832330 未加载
simonh超过 4 年前
Re. How M1 is calculated, are traveler&#x27;s checks really still a thing?
ccrolf81超过 4 年前
Interesting to see there’s no significant drop, historically. That indicates the level will stay this high, it will just increase slower
swengw超过 4 年前
does it still look bad if you use a log scale?
评论 #25831585 未加载
RGamma超过 4 年前
Gotta keep those numbers going up, lest you break the illusion that everything&#x27;s just fine.