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Hedge fund Melvin sustains 53% loss after Reddit onslaught

320 点作者 arunbahl超过 4 年前

21 条评论

dcolkitt超过 4 年前
It should be noted that Melvin Capital returned over 50% in 2020[1], 44% in 2019[2], and has averaged above 30% annual returns since inception[3].<p>In other words, even though this is definitely painful, even <i>inclusive</i> of this event, it&#x27;s one of the best performing hedge funds of the past decade.<p>[1]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;citadel-point72-to-invest-2-75-billion-into-melvin-capital-management-11611604340" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.wsj.com&#x2F;articles&#x2F;citadel-point72-to-invest-2-75-...</a> [2]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2019-07-19&#x2F;cohen-cub-gabriel-plotkin-sees-fund-surge-about-44-this-year" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2019-07-19&#x2F;cohen-cub...</a> [3]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.baltimoresun.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;ct-biz-reddit-wall-street-bets-gamestop-melvin-capital-20210127-qk6uwmw5bze35dmvpx7xbgsyf4-story.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.baltimoresun.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;ct-biz-reddit-wall-str...</a>
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kyrieeschaton超过 4 年前
How much evidence is there that the &quot;reddit onslaught&quot; actually moved the price, as opposed to them being the stalking horse for more sophisticated actors with more capital exercising a vanilla short squeeze strategy?
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wrkronmiller超过 4 年前
&gt; On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio. The firm moved to reduce risk in its investments following a turbulent start to January when it lost 30 percent in the first three weeks. Melvin’s leverage ratio is at the lowest it has been since the firm’s founding in 2014, said a source familiar with the firm. The news of Melvin’s January performance was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.<p>Which begs the questions: who are the remaining short-sellers and what do their positions look like? Are they other hedge funds with soon-to-expire positions or are they retail investors betting that GME will be back down to $100 or less by next month?
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motohagiography超过 4 年前
%53, so far. The problem with the short interest being %140 is that the notional value of shares to cover that extra %40 is in fact, infinite. It&#x27;s literally everything those funds can sell, borrow, and get bailed out to cover their position.<p>My prediction last week was this has system wide implications, and I&#x27;m thinking 1. the Fed will intervene, leverage Robinhood&#x27;s EULA, and buy out everyone&#x27;s shares at a price that will be profitable but still piss everyone off. 2. the new U.S. administration will use this as leverage for some backburner, discredited radical regulations for things like a financial transaction tax or a tax on assets in custody, but only for retail investors and not their donors, 3. the admin will direct the IRS to prioritize making public examples of new traders who screw up their filings. And that&#x27;s the optimistic view.<p>The alternative is contagion that takes down Citadel, and causes a lot of institutions to sell otherwise valuable stocks to cover knock-on effect positions, risking things like indexes and pension solvency.<p>Imo, this is a macro level liquidity crisis, and there are some other players who might use the moment as well. E.g. China could dump some of its massive U.S. treasury holdings, ostensibly to hedge dollar devaluation risk, but really it&#x27;s seizing its moment to cause enough chaos to tip the U.S. into actual domestic chaos while it consolidates its position in Taiwan and Hong Kong.<p>Viewed this way, the Treasury and the administration doesn&#x27;t really have a choice, assuming they can a) use Robinhood&#x27;s EULA to sell everyone&#x27;s shares to the Fed, and b) convince the Fed to provide that liquidity vehicle to unwind this execrably stupid trade.<p>Fanfic? Maybe, but I think the system level risk means the stakes are about opportunities to make moves that upset the global balance of power, and not just a domestic populist issue.
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kasey_junk超过 4 年前
Just for context Melvin has returned better than 30% returns yearly since 2014. There is a very good chance if you are in their fund you’ll look at the total return and be quite happy with the outcome, especially if their risk is decorelated with the other parts of your portfolio.
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melling超过 4 年前
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger on shorting:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;GVtaKKn43M8" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;GVtaKKn43M8</a><p>“It’s ruined a lot of people “<p>“It’s the sort of thing you can go broke doing”
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TameAntelope超过 4 年前
I wonder if all of this would have still happened had retail investors not gotten involved. I just don&#x27;t understand enough, and feel very vulnerable to misinformation, half-truths, and outright lies...
f430超过 4 年前
It&#x27;s really strange. Why would they openly announce that they have closed shorts and that they are sustaining damage so publicly?<p>My theory is that they are not only doubling down but quadrupling down everytime the stock shoots up. Gamestop has no fundamentals going for it, take a look at its other competitors in the industry, they are all gone. Neither do cases for AMC (who themselves acknowledged and WARNED investors that their operations are simply no long viable due to the pandemic).<p>This is probably a once in a lifetime short, they&#x27;ve seen the order flows from Robinhood, they have probably infiltrated r&#x2F;wallstreetbets and are egging people to buy in to the &quot;David vs Goliath&quot; narrative which is couldn&#x27;t be further removed from the truth.<p>Many people who are jumping in now (from all the posts asking what is a margin, or when do I sell, or even how to use a broker app) and I fear that people are walking into a clever trap setup by the hedge funds that are short.<p>There is also a lot of institutional money on the long side and they also have interest in continuing the political narrative because they need somebody to hold the bags.<p>Remember that exuberance of the irrational variety of the 2000s craze, the departure from fundamentals and the mania of the public jumping in while the smart money were happily selling to the eager investing amateur.<p><i>We have no way of knowing if people posting gains on wsb are doing it on paper accounts or not</i>.
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dataflow超过 4 年前
&gt; On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio.<p>Is this true? Louis Rossmann pointed out they would have a huge incentive to lie about this (to prompt people to sell and drive prices down).
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blackrock超过 4 年前
I can’t imagine that a bunch of millennials buying and holding 5 shares of stock on GME is causing this. They’re just getting the blame for it.<p>Instead, I think other hedge funds are in the water. The sharks are circling and they’re battling each other. One side is shorting. And the other side is going long.<p>The volatility on this stock is great. And you can play both sides. And the market makers makes money on both sides too!
sdfhbdf超过 4 年前
Were all the shorts actually covered? There seemed to have been a lot of contradictory information over the weekend.
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ogre_codes超过 4 年前
Most stunning thing in this article to me:<p>&quot;The GameStop saga marks a fall from grace for Melvin, which gained 52 percent last year, <i>ranking it among the best performing hedge funds</i>.&quot;<p>This is kind of surprising. I personally know a few retail investors who crushed that number. Not with fancy day trading, just owning a few good companies.<p>I know it&#x27;s a lot harder for institutions to get outsized returns, I just didn&#x27;t expect the <i>best</i> hedge funds didn&#x27;t do better in what turned out to be a softball market for investors.
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Abimelex超过 4 年前
hedge funds are completely broken, there might to make money out of money and a bit of dirty tricks should be common knowledge since the Homm case. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Florian_Homm" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Florian_Homm</a>
okprod超过 4 年前
53% loss but they got the $2b infusion from Point72 and Citadel.
anonu超过 4 年前
Why does this share an FT link in android chrome?
worik超过 4 年前
I have to learn how to spell schadenfreude.
known超过 4 年前
Another example of Zero-Sum
PurpleFoxy超过 4 年前
The best part about this whole situation is news companies having to translate crude reddit humour and logic in to something old people can understand.<p>Seeing them trying to explain why billions of dollars move because of people who refer to themselves as retards who want to earn money to buy chicken tenders.
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grecy超过 4 年前
&gt; <i>On Wednesday Melvin said it had exited its bet against GameStop and repositioned its portfolio</i><p>If they really had exited, why would they bother telling anyone?<p>&gt; <i>A Melvin spokesperson declined to comment on the firm’s January performance</i><p>Hmmmm. They won&#x27;t talk about performance, but they&#x27;re <i>very</i> keen to convince everyone they&#x27;ve exited their short position. This reads like yet another press release that all the major outlets have run.
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vga805超过 4 年前
We just really like that stock.
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xyst超过 4 年前
If only we can weaponize this collective power for shorting shitty companies that have caused irreparable damage to society and the world (O&amp;G, Koch Industries).<p>Right now the power of shorting companies is held by &quot;institutional&quot; investors simply because of how much funds are controlled by a select group of people and thus can buy and manipulate the market.<p>I would die happy if I saw Exxon or BP go to zero.
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