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It Feels Like the Game Is Rigged

161 点作者 aloukissas超过 4 年前

26 条评论

smabie超过 4 年前
The quote from that caller is pretty amazing. There are just so many things wrong his statement that it&#x27;s hard to even know where to start.<p>1. A 7% weekly loss isn&#x27;t really anything that a buy and hold investor should be worried out. Yes losing money sucks, but are you really so afraid of volatility you would rather earn practically nothing from 3 month T-bills?<p>2. It&#x27;s super easy to call shorting GME risky after the fact.It&#x27;s incredible what people call &quot;obvious&quot; and &quot;risky&quot; once a particular situation has blown up. Captain Hindsight strikes again.<p>3. He claims he is worried about &quot;market manipulation&quot;, but I doubt he would be complaining or have his faith shaken in the markets if he just realized a 7% gain this week.<p>This guy is looking to blame someone and hedge funds are a convenient populist target.<p>On an aside, it seems the market can&#x27;t ever get a break. If it crashes and unemployment skyrockets, it was due to some fat cats gambling. If the market skyrockets and unemployment is high, now the fat cats are making money off the backs of everyone else. If the market skyrockets and unemployment is low, well, everyone isn&#x27;t sharing in the gains equally.<p>Give me a break.
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kenneth超过 4 年前
Institutional traders (hedge fund, i-banks, prop traders, hft) have the advantage of deep pockets and the financial literacy to be able to execute strategies which create easy returns. Many of these strategies are easily scalable to turn a small edge into a big one, using leverage. Oftentimes these strategies have an asymmetric risk profile, with low probability of losing a lot of money (sometimes with unlimited downside potential), for example:<p>- writing out of the money options for the premiums<p>- shorting stocks with leverage<p>- &#x27;08s frenzy of selling credit default swaps<p>- forex trading with spreads so low that they take 100x+ leverage<p>Usually, when these strategies work, it&#x27;s easy money and they get addicted to the easy returns. They scale the strategies up to a level of risk they can&#x27;t handle. Like having 140% short interest relative to GME&#x27;s float. When these strategies blow up in their faces, it wipes them out completely, to the level of requiring bailouts.<p>Main street (retail investors, taxpayers) have had enough of this, and a lot of anger is directed at institutional investors for always getting the easy money and the bailouts at their expense. They want to see the game applied fairly, such that when the bets go sour, they go bankrupt and don&#x27;t get bailed out like in 2008. In the 2015 CHF forex crisis, many brokers went bankrupt overnight. That&#x27;s what should happen to Melvin, and to anyone who takes the stupid risky bets that don&#x27;t work out.
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xeeeeeeeeeeenu超过 4 年前
&gt;Everyone from Ted Cruz to AOC to Aaron Rodgers sided with Main Street against Wall Street.<p>Apart from the media, of course. For example, Newsweek is calling GME investors &quot;far-right extremists&quot;[1] while The Washington Post is comparing the situation to the Capitol riots[2].<p>[1] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newsweek.com&#x2F;far-right-extremists-use-gamestop-chaos-radicalize-recruit-telegram-1565355" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.newsweek.com&#x2F;far-right-extremists-use-gamestop-c...</a><p>[2] - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;opinions&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;30&#x2F;good-guys-gamestop-story-its-hedge-funds-short-sellers&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;opinions&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;30&#x2F;good-guys...</a>
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gorgoiler超过 4 年前
Where is the evidence that “nontraditional investors beat the crap out of hedge fund speculators at their own game” or that “hedge funds pressured the brokerages to disallow new stock purchases of GameStop”?<p>This is the narrative, for sure, but how is this anything more than conjecture? Have the hedge funds publicly said “you got us!”, and even then why should we believe them?<p>The story is fuelled by a subreddit and celebrity hot takes on Twitter. The news coverage I might actually trust also happens to be extremely weak — it’s all on the periphery rather than at the center of the story and I’m deeply skeptical anyone knows what’s actually going on. Why should they? Without a leak from an institution that’s how it should be when private entities trade on a public market.<p>I have seen the mansplaining of what a short position is or what a short squeeze is or how someone can be 150% over shorted — originally 138%, then inflated to 140% for impact, then inflated again. The explanations aren’t wrong but knowing the mechanics of a theory doesn’t differentiate between an internet fantasy and the real world. That kind of self-fulfilling logic is one step away from the world of <i>conspiracy theories</i>.<p>As I’ve said before, on the face of it this just looks a lot like some folks pumping a cheap stock. Potentially the first round of these had good reason to — the actual squeeze — but now the second, third, fourth and upcoming fifth daily cycles are pumping it for the sole reason <i>because the last one did and we need an exit</i>. It could well by pyramid shaped — <i>I’d put money on it if I were you.</i>
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benlivengood超过 4 年前
The advice just falls flat for me.<p>Honestly, if the only winning move is to invest for the long term then why even bother with capital markets at all? Sounds like a waste of time when what we really want is for people to own the means of production.<p>Dump 100% of federal tax revenue into index funds and let it grow faster than the interest on T-bills issued for expenditures. Churn for ~50 years and start paying UBI from the massive profits. Would the government even need to pay interest on the T-bills in USD? Why not just issue more T-bills as interest because after all the long term pretty much guarantees the government would be swimming in cash in 50 years and have no trouble repaying it all. Incidentally the federal government would also become the majority shareholder of every company in the world.<p>If the market can magically let everyone with enough money invested in their youth retire happily then it follows that letting the government own all the stocks and issue UBI would result in roughly the same outcome.
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ineptech超过 4 年前
&gt; I understand that it feels like the odds are stacked against you. But I’m asking you to please reconsider... [ followed by table of great S&amp;P outcomes ]<p>I think the author misunderstands the threat here, and it&#x27;s much graver than they think. Remember the U2 album Apple pushed to everybody&#x27;s iphones?<p>Same thing here. What happened last week is the cracks showing, people being forcibly reminded that they are not in control. In Apple&#x27;s case it was iphone owners being jolted out of the pleasant fantasy that their phone is a little piece of territory they alone control. In GME&#x27;s case, it&#x27;s people thinking of the stock market as something that exists <i>for</i> them to use, like a supermarket. And the jolting reality is that the stock market has become a vast and incomprehensible playground for billionaires to gamble with derivatives, in which the retail investor is <i>incidentally</i> allowed to participate only insofar as their money is helping to push up prices.<p>So the threat to the market is not what the author seems to be speaking to (a hypothetical investor who will buy in late, lose money, and get sore about it). The threat is people getting the general feeling that the stock market is shady, and deciding to buy a rental property, start a small business, etc.
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yongjik超过 4 年前
From the letter quoted in the article:<p>&gt; Seeing my wife lose money as a result of the hedge funds foolish shorts and inability to adapt to a new wave of social media – as well as the frightening thought the trading can be halted at any time as the brokerages see fit – has caused me to become extremely disheartened toward investing in the future.<p>Just checked, and after all these shenanigans, S&amp;P 500 was set back to... where it was <i>one month</i> ago. This actually sounds like a strong evidence in favor of index funds plus long-term investing.
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MisterBastahrd超过 4 年前
Know what bugged me the entire time through all of this?<p>The big money guys on the big money shows kept referring to themselves as &quot;the investor class.&quot;<p>As if by the very nature of their jobs, they were set aside above and apart from those of us who have to earn our livings by doing useful things. I&#x27;d love to know how much of the brainpower in the US is set aside for the purpose of doing nothing more than extracting wealth from the markets.<p>Additionally, I&#x27;ve long held the opinion that if your primary method of earning a living is by extracting wealth from the market, then your &quot;capital gains&quot; are just a fancy way of earning a living and you should be taxed at the exact same rate that everyone else is. You don&#x27;t deserve to pay half the taxes just because your earnings are derived from stocks.
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Animats超过 4 年前
Hedge funds, as a class, underperform the Dow. Hedge fund <i>managers</i>, as a class, do very, very well.<p>&quot;Except Japan&quot;, the author puts in a footnote. The stock market in Japan peaked in 1990 and <i>never</i> came back. The Nikkei peaked at 19590 and is now at 1740.<p>Could that happen to the US?
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darkerside超过 4 年前
If you are scared out of the market by a little ripple like this, investing in equities may not be a good fit, behaviorially. If you are thinking about taking it out now, are you really sure you&#x27;ll be able to stay in when the market drops 40%? If not, better to cut your losses now, reduce your equity holdings, and probably find someone to manage your money for you.<p>I self manage for the most part, but I also have at least some discipline and an awareness that the market could drop at any given time. It&#x27;s only over the 5 year plus time horizon that I actually expect to make money.
anonu超过 4 年前
I&#x27;ve said it many many times on HN and elsewhere. It wont be popular to say this again now - but I dont care: Trading stocks on RH is gambling - it is no better than trading in a casino. The SEC should step in and regulate them like a casino, in the name of investor protection (aka NOT day-trader protection)<p>RH is the social media of trading. Its all about the quick hit of dopamine via a mobile-first experience. Any conceptual inkling of educating their customers around long term investing is out the window. Why? Because thats not their business model. They profit when you trade a lot because they get paid by HFT. So investing is not in their mantra. Only ridiculous day trading as we have now.<p>This isn&#x27;t a story about market stability, price formation, RegNMS, margins, collateral. Thats all a distraction.<p>This story is about the &quot;autists&quot; at r&#x2F;wsb sticking it to wall street. Which is fine, its all good and entertaining. But random punting isn&#x27;t going to create wealth.
noisy_boy超过 4 年前
&gt; And the fact that Janet Yellen, the new Treasury Secretary, got paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in speaking fees from Citadel doesn’t help either.<p>I think there is an opportunity for a service that allows the logistics of ordering&#x2F;distributing large quantities of books written by such people that can be used by banks&#x2F;funds for distribution to their employees and such to avoid the bad-light of direct speaking fees. Order the books, target gets paid (the cut the publisher takes can be considered an acceptable collateral cost of avoiding the exposure) and everyone looks nice - &quot;we were just sharing knowledge - books are good!&quot;. Best part is, some people might actually read the books.
danfang超过 4 年前
All these traders are playing in a casino. Yes, the casino favors the house. Yes, people have figured out how to make big bucks by counting cards. The rules will probably change so the house keeps on winning.<p>To me, all this indicates that the only way to win is to not play. Passively investing in the market as a whole is the only way to win long term.<p>Disclosure: I work at a robo-advisor specializing in long term passive investing. My views are my own, and in no way associated with the views of my employer. This is not investment advice.
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DethNinja超过 4 年前
Did people had faith in financial institutions after 2008 crash anyway, if so who are those people?<p>I feel like huge majority of the people already know that system is rigged but what can they do? Most of them got very limited options against the system.
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jb775超过 4 年前
If the SEC or any government agency steps in to help Wall St hedge funds at the expense of $GME shareholders, I wouldn&#x27;t be the least bit surprised to see the entire millennial generation revolt against the current financial system. They could easily trigger it by a crowdsourced agreement to liquidate 401k&#x27;s and all stock holdings.<p>If we see any govt agency step in, I&#x27;d imagine them trying to pity sell us on lost teacher pensions, etc being managed by the hedge funds...but they&#x27;ll leave out the part that says those teacher pensions have been financially weaponized against average investors for years.
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loosetypes超过 4 年前
I recently learned the term OPM (other peoples’ money).<p>As in, it’s preferable to invest OPM. Could that be the definition of a hedge fund?<p>And in that regard, it’s basically the opposite of the ideals many of us are intimately familiar with - such as having “skin in the game”.<p>To share in winnings yet be insulated from losses must change one’s incentives and potentially reframe what “risky” means in practice.
syntaxing超过 4 年前
I&#x27;m not going to lie, the idea of the 401K kinda scares me now. We were always told to keep it safe, invest in index fund, let compound interests do its thing with your pretax money. But during the financial crisis, most &quot;commoners&quot; took a heavy hit that took a very long time to recover and it felt like we were the last on the priority list to recover and the WSB saga really shows how unfair it is. But my big question is what is the alternative? Real estate?
mrslave超过 4 年前
The irony of educating the average Joe about the long term investment mindset when the hedge funds people despise for getting rich while Main St suffers are anything but long term thinkers.<p>&gt; Hedge funds have idea dinners in private behind closed doors.<p>I appreciate however the slightly obtuse admission that there&#x27;s lots of behind the scenes private conversations. Interesting more so in this environment when everyone is a market manipulator depending on who you ask.
itsatrashcan超过 4 年前
A post to consider as to why buy (and not sell) orders were cancelled. This does not address however the face that SEC fined Robinhood for not providing best execution to customers. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stu2b50.dev&#x2F;posts&#x2F;why-robinhood-d3580b" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;stu2b50.dev&#x2F;posts&#x2F;why-robinhood-d3580b</a>
Gatsky超过 4 年前
On the most basic level we don&#x27;t actually know who is buying and selling Gamestop stock. The narrative that the little people have taken down the elites may in fact be mostly false. Matt Levine talks about this in his latest column [1]. The restrictions imposed by RH didn&#x27;t necessarily stop the buying.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2021-01-29&#x2F;reddit-traders-on-robinhood-are-on-both-sides-of-gamestop" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.bloomberg.com&#x2F;opinion&#x2F;articles&#x2F;2021-01-29&#x2F;reddit...</a>
timoth3y超过 4 年前
Thanks for that. It&#x27;s nice to see a calm perspective on GME.<p>Of course, he doesn&#x27;t try to get to the bottom of a lot of the questions that really do need to be answered, but a good perspective on what it means for &quot;the rest of us.&quot;
chmod600超过 4 年前
During the 2008 crisis, there was a lot of criticism of HFTs. Their primary defense was that they provide liquidity, which is valuable.<p>Does HFT help with this issue at all?
antonzabirko超过 4 年前
So because Citadel made 100m executing the stocks they were happy to lose 3b+?<p>Am i missing something or is this what the author is saying?
b0rsuk超过 4 年前
I can&#x27;t help but notice a parallel with horse races and mafia. They say some mobsters love to bet in horse races. They end up betting on the best horses. Where mafia rules, it becomes an open secret you&#x27;re not supposed to bet on &quot;their&quot; horses. They don&#x27;t fancy sharing money with you.
tempsy超过 4 年前
isn’t the “rigging” mostly a function of the Federal Reserve’s money printer? seems odd to argue it isn’t rigged by showing stocks always go up.
gher-shyu3i超过 4 年前
The game is not just rigged, it&#x27;s fundamentally broken. Parasitic practices such as lending money with interest and shorting are the basis of the modern economic system. Practices that we&#x27;ve known for literally over 1400 years to be bad, yet we continue to engage in them, then cry when things go south.<p>If we want a proper economic system, we should have proper fundamentals. Ban shorting, ban interest, ban packaging debt and selling it in packages, etc. encourage proper investments (not casino gamblings) and things will improve drastically.