Delphi Method

A company I was at 20 years ago did a variation of this for software estimation. It resulted in some good discussions. It wasn&#x27;t anonymous as mentioned here.<p>When one person on the team says an element will take one week and another says 8 weeks, there are fundamental differences in assumptions that need to be worked out. That was the good part of the process. The bad was when the Project Manager doesn&#x27;t let the process play out and simply takes the shortest of the available estimates.

Years ago we used this method with a group of neuropsychologists and physicians to develop an algorithm for clinical decision support for traumatic brain injury and PTSD evaluation at the VA. It helped provide validation of a 3 question screener that would get veterans to the right services while not burdening other vets with an hour long evaluation appointment. The screener is still in use today AFAIK. The Delphi process itself was a cool experience and allowed a lot of &quot;cooler&quot; analytical thought whereas committee meetings tend to have problems with egos and hot takes.

I have heard about this method in the context of group manipulation - &quot;to be delphied&quot; i.e.: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;anticorruptionsociety.files.wordpress.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;03&#x2F;delphi-brochure2.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;anticorruptionsociety.files.wordpress.com&#x2F;2015&#x2F;03&#x2F;de...</a>

We do a version of this with our clients, where we use our forecasting software and host a &quot;live&quot; forecasting session. We make people forecast &quot;cold&quot; on something: likelihood of hitting milestones, competitive intelligence, industry trend, whatever, and then have someone come in and give a talk on what we&#x27;ve asked people to forecast. We follow that up with more forecasting and get to see if people were influenced by the expert or not.<p>Perhaps the most valuable part is the discussion after making that second forecast. We identify a lot of bias and assumptions people were making that they then learn from the next time they have to make a forecast like that.

Sounds very much like story point estimation that my team does all the time: “The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator.”

Clicked here expecting some heart touching Object Pascal reveries. Not this time.

I first learned about the Delphi Method from the book Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art.<p>Although I have not used it in practice yet, I like the concept, especially for some more difficult (bigger) estimation tasks, so I am mentioning it in my book besides other &quot;group estimation techniques&quot;.<p>It is true that this is basically async &quot;planning poker&quot;.

Sounds a lot like reading the comment feed on hn. A panel of experts that have better forecasting abilities than FANG combined.

Could this be the solution to the pain of trying to discuss a complex topic in zoom meetings? I kept thinking we should use parliamentary procedure or something but this sounds like less friction and it is mostly what we are already doing but with a little bit of structure.<p>A Jamboard delphi session perhaps.

Not to be confused with Methods in Delphi <a href="http:&#x2F;&#x2F;docwiki.embarcadero.com&#x2F;RADStudio&#x2F;Sydney&#x2F;en&#x2F;Methods_(Delphi)" rel="nofollow">http:&#x2F;&#x2F;docwiki.embarcadero.com&#x2F;RADStudio&#x2F;Sydney&#x2F;en&#x2F;Methods_(...</a>

I use this method for interviewing executive, technical and operational groups in security audits. It&#x27;s much easier to dig down to the truth.

Note: decentralized oracles don’t work, because that middle step of talk &#x2F; signal doesn’t happen

I was excited until I discovered this method requires a committee.

My university uses this to predict COVID spread: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;delphi.cmu.edu&#x2F;about&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;delphi.cmu.edu&#x2F;about&#x2F;</a>