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Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is shrinking

154 点作者 hacksilver大约 4 年前

28 条评论

Robotbeat大约 4 年前
Regardless of what you think about new nuclear&#x27;s potential, we need to protect and upgrade (and possibly even resurrect recently-mothballed) existing nuclear power plants.<p>&quot;Oh, we&#x27;re going to replace that nuclear power plant with wind and solar!&quot;<p>Oh, really? Are you going to do that AFTER phasing out fossil fuel plants or BEFORE? Because if it&#x27;s before, you&#x27;re making the case that climate change is a lower priority than retiring the cleanest and one of the cheapest and safest power sources humankind has ever developed. Because you could ALWAYS choose to just replace those fossil power plants with wind and solar and batteries instead, but you&#x27;re making the decision to keep that fossil fuel plant running longer than it needs to.<p>Similar argument for getting rid of existing hydroelectric dams.<p>And I&#x27;m talking about long existing plants, here. All those cement emissions (and reservoir emissions for hydro) already happened and were &quot;paid for.&quot; We need to protect all near-zero energy sources until the last fossil power plant on the continent is decommissioned. Then go ahead and retire your nuclear or hydro power plant.<p>(Addressed to no one in particular, but these arguments in favor of premature retiring of functioning clean energy power plants are widespread and it ticks me off. Plus, retiring them early also increases the cost of electricity, which slows electrification. I bet electric cars would be a LOT more popular--and fossil fuel cars less popular--in Germany if their electricity price weren&#x27;t so insane.)
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philipkglass大约 4 年前
Global nuclear generation increased by 95 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2019, relative to 2018:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.world-nuclear.org&#x2F;our-association&#x2F;publications&#x2F;global-trends-reports&#x2F;world-nuclear-performance-report.aspx" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.world-nuclear.org&#x2F;our-association&#x2F;publications&#x2F;g...</a><p>Global wind and solar generation increased by 265 TWh in 2019:<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rechargenews.com&#x2F;wind&#x2F;global-wind-and-solar-energy-growth-rate-in-2019-was-slowest-this-century&#x2F;2-1-769738" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.rechargenews.com&#x2F;wind&#x2F;global-wind-and-solar-ener...</a><p>Nuclear was still well ahead in 2019 with 2657 TWh vs. 2103 TWh for wind and solar (699 solar, 1404 wind). But if these relative growth rates continue it will take only 3.3 years for solar + wind generation to eclipse nuclear generation globally ((2657 - 2103) &#x2F; 170).<p>Hydropower is still the far-and-away leader of non-fossil electricity generation at 4306 TWh in 2019 (106 TWh growth over 2018):<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hydropower.org&#x2F;news&#x2F;invest-in-hydropower-to-tackle-coronavirus-and-climate-crisis-impacts" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.hydropower.org&#x2F;news&#x2F;invest-in-hydropower-to-tack...</a><p>But it&#x27;s a lot harder to build new hydro projects than new wind or solar projects.
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rgbrenner大约 4 年前
People who decide to build new plants make their decision not from concerns about climate change, but economics. Building a new nuclear plant would be like building a new coal plant, but worse because by the time it&#x27;s complete the economics will be even poorer in comparison. Nuclear just doesn&#x27;t make economic sense on any measure: cost per GW, time to complete, up front cost, regulatory difficulty, etc.<p>So as much a nuclear advocates wish more nuclear plants would be built, unless they want to provide significant subsidies, it&#x27;s just not going to happen. For the same reason you don&#x27;t shop around by finding the highest price you can... no one is looking to throw away money. Energy is energy.. no one cares about the type of plant it came from.
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hinkley大约 4 年前
Don&#x27;t.<p>Compare.<p>Percentages.<p>Stand-up Maths called this out recently and it&#x27;s good to mention. I think this might be the video: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aokNwKx7gM8" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=aokNwKx7gM8</a><p>Give me the output and our total consumption please.
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cletus大约 4 年前
I&#x27;m not sure which issue is more polarizing on HN: nuclear power or Bitcoin.<p>So fission power is easy: I know this will upset the nuclear fanboys on HN but (IMHO) it has no future. And it&#x27;s not because the technology can&#x27;t be safe. It&#x27;s because humans ultimately can&#x27;t be trusted with:<p>- Acquiring, extracting and storing the fuel;<p>- Dealing with the toxic byproducts (eg UF6);<p>- Maintaining the plants to a sufficient degree of safety on thin profit margins that are the norm for utilities;<p>- The failure modes are awful; and<p>- Dealing with the waste.<p>Governments currently cover some or all of these to some degree so I&#x27;m not sure we&#x27;re seeing anything close to the true cost of nuclear power factoring in the above. Nuclear power thus far seems to have been far more of a political statement than an economic choice.<p>As for fusion power, that&#x27;s more murky. I really hope there&#x27;s commercially viable fusion power in our future but... I&#x27;m not yet convinced there will be.<p>Fusion works for stars because the process happens really slowly (per unit mass) and the masses are so large that gravity contains the &quot;mess&quot;.<p>Heating a fluid to 100M+ Kelvin is always going to have turbulence issues and we don&#x27;t have a good story for containing the neutrons without destroying our containment vessel. I believe He3 fusion would be (mostly?) aneutronic but... He3 is super-rare (for us here on Earth).<p>I believe solar has the brightest future. When (not if) getting stuff in orbit is sufficiently cheap that we have industry and permanent residence off Earth then solar is an amazing option. I&#x27;ve seen one estimate that a solar collector in space produces about 7 times the power of an Earth-bound one (night&#x2F;day cycles, no weather, no atmospheric interference).
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s21n大约 4 年前
We need nuclear because closing the gap between 80% and 100% clean energy will be much harder and more expensive without it. Comparing the cost of building energy sources today it may look that nuclear is more expensive than renewables, but that&#x27;s because we are not counting the cost of the additional infrastructure needed by them, which rises exponentially with the share of renewables in the mix.<p>Also, no energy source is environmentally neutral. Building renewables and it&#x27;s supporting infrastructure en masse will have a huge ecological impact. You can reduce that impact using nuclear energy (that also have it&#x27;s impact on nature, but elsewhere). For example, nuclear power plants kill fish, wind turbines kill birds. By using both energy sources it&#x27;s easier to limit building plants only in areas, where the impact will be low. We&#x27;ll be still killing some birds and fish, but the chances that it&#x27;s well within the ability of populations to recover will be much greater, than if we decided to focus on one source.<p>We need nuclear because it saves nature.
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fuoqi大约 4 年前
It&#x27;s quite disingenuous to project Chernobyl and Fukushima to modern reactors. When you hear about them, always remember that they were designed in 60s and represent the second generation of nuclear reactors. The nuclear technology came a LONG way since then and modern reactors are counted as generation 3+.<p>After Fukushima safety requirements for reactor designs have been revisited and what do you know? Modern VVER reactors satisfies them without any changes! I suspect other modern designs have performed similarly in this regard.<p>Also when you hear about issues with construction time&#x2F;cost or about nuclear waste storage, examples are usually US-specific. There is also Olkiluoto plant, but its issues are more about building a new reactor design using an Agile-like methodology. Nuclear waste problem can be more or less solved with &quot;burner&quot; reactors and fuel recycling, the field in which Russia and France have promising advancements.<p>Should the old reactors be retired? Yes! Should we abandon the nuclear energy for fashionable renewables? Absolutely, no! At the very least until the storage problem will be properly solved.
krupan大约 4 年前
Has anyone ever done an actual detailed comparison of unsubsidized nuclear vs. unsubsidized wind&#x2F;solar? I’d love to see a breakdown of not just dollar costs, but environmental impacts like how much land is required, wildlife affected, supplies acquisition, lifetime of the equipment, disposal of waste&#x2F;worn out parts, etc.
gandalfian大约 4 年前
Funnily enough most of these issues people mention with renewables are the same ones Britain faced introducing nuclear power! They coped by shaping demand with variable electrify tarrifs, creating the world&#x27;s largest electrical vehicle fleet (milk floats) and charging them off-peak, encouraging storage heaters and electric water cylinders in houses and building pumped storage hydro. What goes around comes around. If you want hope for the future look at <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Cruachan_Power_Station" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Cruachan_Power_Station</a>
bartimus大约 4 年前
It seems renewable strategies are still experimental and will rely on some sort of base load system for the foreseeable future. The base load systems being either gas plants or nuclear plants. We can place our bets on gas hoping we can one day turn those plants off using some sophisticated storage solution. The safer bet - however - is perhaps on small flexible nuclear reactors. Once mass produced (~ 10 years) I expect those will be taking over the energy market because of economic factors. Disrupting many complex solutions that are currently being invested in.
killjoywashere大约 4 年前
Again, I will observe that even though more people will most certainly die from solar and wind installations due to falls and machinery accidents, there is no catastrophic downside. So as much as I think Ansel Adams (37-year board member Of the Sierra Club) was right, that nuclear is a great solution, it simply isn&#x27;t worth the political capital at this point in history. You&#x27;ll have to wait until the uninformed die out, which will take longer than evolution.
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jonplackett大约 4 年前
Question: how much is building new nuclear plants about producing nuclear weapons?<p>Is that still important? In the UK we’re spending an INSANE amount of money on a new reactor and I’m wondering if that has anything to do with the government’s motivation.
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cybert00th大约 4 年前
&gt;Today, nuclear power supplies about 10% of the world’s energy, down from 13% in 2010. Its use might continue to fall, although it will remain a part of the global energy mix for many decades, with a role in decarbonizing energy supplies as the fossil-fuel age comes to a close.<p>An overly optimistic statement if every I saw one. China is a case in point,they&#x27;re bringing more and more fossil-fuelled power stations online by the year.<p>And at that rate, the rest of the world risks being left behind in energy poverty or becoming dependent on China et al for their energy needs.<p>Wars have been fought over less.
jimmaswell大约 4 年前
Such a shame that we didn&#x27;t get to have super cheap, nearly unlimited power by proliferating nuclear because people are stupid and panic over statistical anomalies like Chernobyl and politicians&#x2F;their constituents purposely made nuclear too overencumbered with BS to be profitable half the time. No doubt fossil fuel companies et al played into this because nuclear was such an existential threat to them. We could have been living in an energy utopia but we weren&#x27;t ready.
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phs318u大约 4 年前
While laws like the Price-Anderson Nuclear Indemnity Act [0] are still in place, good.<p>While it could never be proven, my suspicion is that this law has done more to hinder the adoption of newer, safer nuclear power plant designs over the years, than any other single thing.<p>[0]. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nuclear_Industries_Indemnity_Act" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.m.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nucle...</a>
ncmncm大约 4 年前
&gt; &quot;<i>that did not lead to any loss of life, but, 7 years later, some 31 people died</i>&quot;<p>Undercounting casualties of nuke disasters has a long tradition.
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docmechanic大约 4 年前
I highly recommend William T. Vollmann&#x27;s Carbon Ideologies, Volume One for a literary appraisal of the viability of nuclear energy as an alternative to carbon-based fuels. Normalization on the Rocks - page 499 in my hard copy - provides food for thought in any discussion of government &quot;safety standards&quot; after the Fukushima disaster.
johnchristopher大约 4 年前
I have a very stupid naive question: can a green grid supply enough energy to power a hadron collider, that kind of huge scientific R&amp;D things ? It seems wind and solar can provide for the normal grid but what about industries hungry for a lot of throughtput ? Huge batteries ? How does it work ?
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doggydogs94大约 4 年前
My observation is that climate activists would much prefer a new coal plant to a new nuclear plant.
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wlpu大约 4 年前
So much anti nuclear absolutism<p>I recommend watching this <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;Jzfpyo-q-RM" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;youtu.be&#x2F;Jzfpyo-q-RM</a> for a pragmatic lense<p>Fossil fuels, even temporary, kills several magnitudes more people than nuclear
0xmohit大约 4 年前
Bitcoin&#x27;s role in the world&#x27;s energy consumption is increasing.
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Krasnol大约 4 年前
There is a pattern to those countries where it&#x27;s not shrinking:<p>• Only four newcomer countries are currently constructing nuclear power plants and all are plagued by financial difficulties and delays<p>• An econometric analysis suggests that countries classified as potential newcomers tend to be less democratic<p>• On the supply side, the dominant driving force is the geopolitical interests of countries that export nuclear power<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.diw.de&#x2F;documents&#x2F;publikationen&#x2F;73&#x2F;diw_01.c.742611.de&#x2F;dwr-20-11-1.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.diw.de&#x2F;documents&#x2F;publikationen&#x2F;73&#x2F;diw_01.c.74261...</a>
Wolfenstein98k大约 4 年前
A bad thing for climate change.
beloch大约 4 年前
How much of this is due <i>just</i> to Germany switching from Nuclear to coal after the Fukushima incident?
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bezelbuttons大约 4 年前
We need to build all forms of renewable energy and stop falling into the trap of &quot;Build X not Y&quot; where X and Y are one of solar&#x2F;wind&#x2F;hydro&#x2F;nuclear. One form is insufficient.<p>Nothing will get accomplished with this climate &#x27;whataboutism&#x27; type of argument. (I&#x27;m making a comparison to whataboutism, I recognize the difference)
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tyronehed大约 4 年前
Fukushima--that&#x27;s why nuclear is held in ill repute.
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nullifidian大约 4 年前
Nuclear energy is very eco-friendly. Even when it catastrophically melts down &#x2F; explodes Chernobyl-style -- the outcome is creation of &quot;no humans allowed&quot; nature reserves (exclusion zones), which are sorely needed.
choeger大约 4 年前
Nuclear power (in its current form) is extremely impractical compared to wind and solar.<p>1. It is obviously dangerous, requiring extreme safety measures.<p>2. It requires large amounts of water.<p>3. It is unpopular.<p>4. It is so complex that building plants regularly exceeds budgets (there is little repetition and thus little learning)<p>5. It requires ridiculous storage&#x2F;transport protocols for spent fuel. In Fukushima, one of the biggest concern was the spent fuel pool. That stuff is so hot, you cannot safely move it across the country and thus it has to accumulate on-site.<p>Compare this to solar and battery storage: You can literally build a <i>factory</i> for both in the same ten or more years it takes to build the nuclear power plant. There is absolutely no physical reason not to produce 100 times as many batteries and solar panels as we do now. Resources are abundant (you can replace rare materials at a slight cost of efficiency).<p>We are not at the point where we can use 100% solar&#x2F;wind yet but the path is clear. On the other hand, we <i>might</i> be able to do the same with safe and efficient nuclear power, but <i>that</i> path is much less clear. Molten salt? Micro plants? Thorium? There is no one out there doing any of that fancy new stuff in practice, sonny bet is on mass-scale of solar, wind, and batteries.
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