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Paper simulating initial Covid-19 outbreak estimates only 30% pandemic chance

8 点作者 anaerobicover大约 4 年前

3 条评论

nabla9大约 4 年前
Only? 30% change is huge for potential pandemic.<p>The lesson seems to be that moderate mortality rate pathogens can fly under the radar long time.<p>&gt; By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that over two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates. <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;early&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;17&#x2F;science.abf8003" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;early&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;17&#x2F;scie...</a>
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anaerobicover大约 4 年前
The paper itself is here <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;early&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;17&#x2F;science.abf8003" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;science.sciencemag.org&#x2F;content&#x2F;early&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;17&#x2F;scie...</a>
timmytokyo大约 4 年前
The power of contingency. It&#x27;s always been a huge factor in everything from cosmology to evolution. No surprise that pandemics are highly contingent events as well.