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On the Epidemiology of Influenza (2008)

63 点作者 AndrewBissell大约 4 年前

6 条评论

penteract大约 4 年前
This is very interesting and has helped me understand something I hadn&#x27;t realised before - if a disease is primarily spread by a small subset of the population(superspreaders), but you assume otherwise, it gets very hard to do statistics.<p>For example, if you&#x27;re trying to measure the R number, then you&#x27;re sampling from a very fat tailed distribution, so it&#x27;s easy to underestimate.<p>It also means that if an intervention (such as vitamin D) prevents transmission but not illness, it could be hard to detect&#x2F;measure the impact.<p>(This comment is not a summary of the paper)
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manwe150大约 4 年前
This was a very intriguing and plausible-sounding hypothesis to read. Since this was 2008, are there good follow-up papers yet (or rebuttals)?
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Pyramus大约 4 年前
As a non-expert I found it very interesting to see these parallels between influenza (even though partly conjectured) and SARS-Cov-2: The surprisingly low secondary attack rate of 20-30% and the fat-tailed distribution of R (this correlate of course to some extent), and a potentially mediating effect of Vitamin D.
Mai914大约 4 年前
Interesting hypothesis, and can be quite relevant today too!
Vecr大约 4 年前
Current flu vaccines don&#x27;t work very well in old people, due to their weakening immune systems. There is now a high dose inactivated flu vaccine available in the US that also contains adjuvent to partially address this issue[0], but an mRNA flu vaccine would probably help even more. In theory, I think it would be preferable if each person over 55 would receive one dose of the current high dose vaccine in October of each year and be given a silicone P100 respirator, and then be given a booster in December.<p>[0]: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20130508081643&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.sciencebasedmedicine.org&#x2F;index.php&#x2F;high-dose-flu-vaccine-for-the-elderly&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;web.archive.org&#x2F;web&#x2F;20130508081643&#x2F;http:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.scienc...</a>
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anonymous49298大约 4 年前
To those concerned about the ineffectiveness of flu shots or other vaccines in the elderly, Greg Fahy (eminent cryobiologist) developed a protocol for thymic rejuvenation that is in registered clinical trials now. And from the before&#x2F;after scans, it does look like he&#x27;s managed to replace much of the worthless fat in the aged thymus with functional tissue:<p>youtube.com&#x2F;watch?v=D3IteYQ7xhc<p>It&#x27;s crazy how little attention this is getting. We&#x27;re living through a global pandemic of a respiratory virus that predominantly affects the elderly (with weakened immune systems) and the immune-compromised, and almost no one is interested in this.