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M1 Money Stock

50 点作者 anilshanbhag大约 4 年前

7 条评论

arcticbull大约 4 年前
I&#x27;ve weighed in a few times on this but it bears mentioning again. This graph is presented strictly without context. Inflation is a function of both money supply and velocity. The M1 velocity graph is basically the mirror image of the M1 supply graph. [1]<p>US domestic savings rates are near all-time highs. [2]<p>The money supply was expanded in order to offset the drop in velocity from Americans putting their money into savings accounts and into the stock market - risking a deflationary spiral. The Fed has tools available at its disposal to contract the supply should velocity go up in order to meet its goal of a steady 2% rate of inflation. [4] They have admitted it may be transiently higher than 2% as the economy re-opens but their goal is an average of 2%, not to avoid spikes. Spikes historically are normal and common.<p>[edit] A good way to conceptualize this is if the Fed printed a $1T coin and gave it to me, then I threw it into a vault and didn&#x27;t spend it, would that impact the prices in the CPI basket? No, because the supply expanded and the velocity contracted commensurately. This is what&#x27;s happening around America on a smaller scale as COVID spooked folks into saving. More about the relationship between supply and velocity and inflation here. [3]<p>The &quot;inflation scare&quot; people are talking about now isn&#x27;t whether there&#x27;s already secret inflation we&#x27;re not talking about (although it does come up, it&#x27;s more of a fringe idea). Rather, whether the Fed&#x27;s tools to reduce supply are sufficient to offset a big increase in velocity now and moving forward.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;M1V" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;M1V</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;PSAVERT" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;PSAVERT</a><p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;seekingalpha.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;4411210-money-supply-mystery" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;seekingalpha.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;4411210-money-supply-myster...</a><p>[4] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;FPCPITOTLZGUSA" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fred.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;series&#x2F;FPCPITOTLZGUSA</a>
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Qworg大约 4 年前
Do note the postscript below the graph - in May 2020, they changed how the M1 is calculated, adding all of the savings accounts into it. That explains the giant jump.<p>Is the Fed printing money? Yes. Is it dire? Unknown.
asperous大约 4 年前
M2 is a better chart now since they added savings accounts in May 2020 making the M1 misleading and hard to follow.<p>M2 is &quot;M1 plus savings and time deposits, certificates of deposits, and money market funds&quot;.<p>Washington post has a good article talking about the cases for and against inflation rising [1]. This chart shows one case for inflation, cases against include supply chain problems, unemployment, and cautious households.<p>[1]<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;with-no-inflation-in-sight-why-the-inflation-debate&#x2F;2021&#x2F;03&#x2F;15&#x2F;54eeabec-8593-11eb-be4a-24b89f616f2c_story.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;with-no-inflation-in...</a>
readthenotes1大约 4 年前
Lies, damn lies, ...<p>It&#x27;s not as bad as that graph makes it look.<p>Last April, all the money that was in savings and money market accounts seemingly got transferred to the m1.<p>&quot;...the modification of Regulation D in late April has effectively rendered savings accounts almost indistinguishable from checking accounts from the perspective of depositors and banks. Accordingly, the composition of M2 between M1 and non-M1 components conveys little economic information.&quot;<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fredblog.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;whats-behind-the-recent-surge-in-the-m1-money-supply&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fredblog.stlouisfed.org&#x2F;2021&#x2F;01&#x2F;whats-behind-the-rec...</a>
etaioinshrdlu大约 4 年前
Yes, once you understand what caused the spike, spreading this graph without the explanation is basically misleading propaganda.
tingletech大约 4 年前
with a Federal Reserve Digital Dollar, at least under one proposal, the Fed could, as a matter of monetary policy, just create new dollars directly into everyone&#x27;s personal Federal Reserve account. Most of the money they created here is still just sitting in big banks and isn&#x27;t moving around so it does not really add to the velocity of money. If they could hand out all the new money to everyone with like a federal venmo app with USD stable coins that you can convert to cash at an ATM, then maybe they would have another lever to try to meet their 2% inflation goal.
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caturopath大约 4 年前
Two graphs of different things stitched together as if they were one.
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