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There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

267 点作者 pranshum大约 4 年前

28 条评论

khazhoux大约 4 年前
This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and weren&#x27;t necessary. Anyone seen good studies or analysis on this?<p>Legitimate question, please no political commentary.
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hedora大约 4 年前
The earth’s population is 7.9b, so the excess deaths are 0.1% of the population. COVID’s mortality rate is about 0.5%, so roughly 1&#x2F;5 of the population has has had it (or died of other related things, like starvation in developing countries due to the lockdown stopping food harvests in California).<p>Currently, 1.45b doses of a vaccine have been administered, so about as many people have had the vaccine (partially, at least), as have had COVID.<p>Hopefully the vaccine will make to the rest of the population soon. If not, we’re about 20% done with COVID, world-wide.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2021&#x2F;world&#x2F;covid-vaccinations-tracker.html" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nytimes.com&#x2F;interactive&#x2F;2021&#x2F;world&#x2F;covid-vaccina...</a><p>I’m pretty jaded at this point. My guess is that the vaccine rollout stalls out in poorer countries and COVID falls out of the news cycle before the majority of deaths.
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HatchedLake721大约 4 年前
Please don’t look at 7m-13m number and compare it to 7 billion population and say oh it’s only 0.1-0.2%.<p>Pretty much ever country has seen a 15-20% increase in excess mortality rates (20% more people dying than averages in the past), this is huge.<p>This is one of the best up to date visualizations on this topic, scroll down and see breakdowns by country - <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ft.com&#x2F;content&#x2F;a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ft.com&#x2F;content&#x2F;a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386...</a>
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pranshum大约 4 年前
Github link for all the code behind the analysis: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;TheEconomist&#x2F;covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;github.com&#x2F;TheEconomist&#x2F;covid-19-excess-deaths-track...</a>
bytematic大约 4 年前
For people who think that is low, this is with the precautions taken, imagine if nobody did anything
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noxer大约 4 年前
The question is how much less death will there be in the years to come. Especially the older people who died earlier because of covid. We should see a decline in death from all kinds of diseases that these people had and would have died from&#x2F;with.
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atweiden大约 4 年前
Covid makes your country worse. It’s like having endemic malaria. No one wants endemic malaria in their country, and costly government intervention was required to rid the developed world of it.<p>Similarly, it’s disheartening to see so many people — especially on partisan lines — promulgate the talking point that we just need to “learn to live with it”. This is insanity. Annual mRNA booster vaccines ad infinitum, with continuous vaccine passports is a wholly inadequate vision for the future. Melbourne, Oz — a diverse, international city of 5M — demonstrates it’s very possible to eradicate Covid with international, interregional and interstate border closures, with hard lockdowns plus federal financial support. Four months later, zero covid.
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timmg大约 4 年前
If I did the math right, that&#x27;s (at most) .17% of the population. In a normal year I&#x27;d guess we lose 1% of the population. I guess this seems lower than I&#x27;d expect?
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lifeisstillgood大约 4 年前
Holy cow. This does massively underline how important the work of things like COVAX are in getting equitable global access to vaccines. We still need <i>billions</i> more doses manufactured, distributed and administered - it could take years and cost a fortune - and we should not lose our urgency or our focus.
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xiphias2大约 4 年前
From what I have seen in poorer countries, in some cases the worst things have just started. I was dating a Colombian girl who got a 200% APR loan from a city near her during the lockdown to be able to pay her rent without a job, and hadn&#x27;t even realized that it&#x27;s 200% APR (15%&#x2F;month didn&#x27;t sound that bad to her). People are on the streets because the government wants to increase taxes, and they are already in huge debt. Now the government started to kill its own people in the daylight to stop the revolution.
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igonvalue大约 4 年前
Searching for what excess mortality looks like in a &quot;normal&quot; (non-pandemic) year, I found this interesting statistic:<p>&gt; By the year 2017, the United States was already suffering more excess deaths and more life years lost each year than those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;penntoday.upenn.edu&#x2F;news&#x2F;United-States-COVID-19-was-not-sole-cause-excess-deaths-2020" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;penntoday.upenn.edu&#x2F;news&#x2F;United-States-COVID-19-was-...</a>
sh1mmer大约 4 年前
According to the UN [1] 2019 worldwide mortality was 58m people. So that’s roughly a 12-22% increase assuming mortality stayed the same.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.un.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;development&#x2F;desa&#x2F;population&#x2F;publications&#x2F;pdf&#x2F;mortality&#x2F;WMR2019&#x2F;WorldMortality2019DataBooklet.pdf" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.un.org&#x2F;en&#x2F;development&#x2F;desa&#x2F;population&#x2F;publicatio...</a>
raphaelj大约 4 年前
And that’s with all the safety measures most of us have been following for more than one year now.
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winstonewert大约 4 年前
What strikes me is Asia. If I&#x27;m reading this right they have relatively low official Covid deaths, but off the charts excess deaths. What&#x27;s up with that?
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dnissley大约 4 年前
A related angle I haven&#x27;t seen much investigation on is to what degree we&#x27;ll see negative excess deaths (surely there&#x27;s a better term, but I&#x27;m at a loss) in the coming years due to how much covid impacted older folks.
burlesona大约 4 年前
<a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;36LK9" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;archive.md&#x2F;36LK9</a>
chiefalchemist大约 4 年前
&quot;The rich world suffered relatively badly, but most of the dying has been elsewhere.&quot;<p>Saying the subtitle.<p>Elsewhere, meaning relatively poor countries. But even within the rich world the poor within those are disproportionately affected by Covid (deaths). But those ppl - at least in the USA - have worse health outcomes in general already.<p>Covid is both a disease and a symptom. Unfortunately, the disease lens is being used to distract from how it&#x27;s a symptom of deeper longer running societal problems.<p><a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.smithsonianmag.com&#x2F;smart-news&#x2F;communities-color-face-deadly-air-pollution-regardless-location-or-income-180977624&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.smithsonianmag.com&#x2F;smart-news&#x2F;communities-color-...</a>
mojomark大约 4 年前
Have we completely lost our ability to report at responsible scientists&#x2F;engineers? There are no units on the y-axis of the subject graphs. Also 7m == 7 meters. 7M == 7 million. There are no legends for the color coding. This is absolutely the worst, most ambiguous (hence most confusing) presentation of data I have ever witnessed in my 20nyear career as an engineer.<p>If the author can&#x27;t at least present evidence for their case within a reasonably accepted scientific standard framework (e.g. graph legends, correct units, etc.) , than the evidence should ve dismissed until they can.<p>Where is the peer review for this content? Why is this low caliber content showing up in my HN feed?<p>Can we please do better?
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jaimex2大约 4 年前
I was hoping the silver lining to the pandemic would be our planets overpopulation brought down but it really hasn&#x27;t even made a chip in it.<p>With new births added in were still growing the global population
0x0大约 4 年前
&quot;Our apologies. An error seems to have occurred. We’ve logged this error. Contact us if this issue persists.&quot; ...
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nradov大约 4 年前
So at the upper end of the range that would be 0.17% of the world population.
mfbx9da4大约 4 年前
What&#x27;s that as a percentage?
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chmaynard大约 4 年前
Rest in peace. Tragic to the people who loved them, a statistic to the rest of us.
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tester756大约 4 年前
How strong is anti vaccine &#x2F; anti mask movement in the US?<p>As I see there&#x27;s very little of it &quot;on the american side of the internet&quot;, meanwhile &quot;here&quot; they tend to cause a lot of disruption and shitton of missinformation
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spankyspangler大约 4 年前
That sounds like a pretty wild conspiracy theory. Any basis for this belief?
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adventured大约 4 年前
I found the counting approach to Covid so far to be rather fascinating. With the flu in the US they guess and present that number, but we&#x27;re supposed to attach some meaningful value to the Covid positive counts as though that actually represents anywhere near the real number of Covid cases since the outbreak began. It&#x27;s bullshit, I&#x27;m just not sure why the establishment (media, government, censors, etc) stick so tightly to the line on the bogus official counts. They act like those counts actually represent the outbreak properly. Perhaps in their pathological quest for control (a central theme of most politicians) they need a number to lean on as authoritative, to prop up their weak credibility. If they can&#x27;t even give you accurate outbreak counts, what else can be believed (masks, no masks; 6 feet, 20 feet, no feet; fear the surfaces, don&#x27;t fear the surfaces; vaccines take years (nope: 1957 Asian flu); it has been a total clown show the entire pandemic).<p>India had been seeing near 400,000 cases per day. That&#x27;s an entirely bogus number of course. And it&#x27;s near universally agreed upon that it&#x27;s bogus. The question is whether it&#x27;s a million, two million, five million, whatever. What&#x27;s actually closer to the truth? That&#x27;s where everybody abandons ship, I never see the news media go deep into that part of it (and yet they happily report the made-up flu numbers every year).<p>Part of the comedy of it, is that the supposed truth enforcers are enforcing a fraud, because none of these official counts are anywhere close to real, no matter which country you pick as the topic.<p>Is India seeing 4,000 deaths per day, or 10,000, or 15,000? It&#x27;s a dramatic difference across a month of time. The best you&#x27;ll get out of the media is a little edge statement of: but it&#x27;s suspected to be under-reported. Yeah, no kidding.<p>The US has seen 33 million cases of Covid - that&#x27;s the reported media line in every story. Everyone knows it&#x27;s bogus and doesn&#x27;t represent anywhere close to the number of actual infections in the US and yet it&#x27;s reported on as properly representing the scale of the pandemic in the US. There has been so much intellectual fraud in this pandemic.<p>So the obvious question: if they very widely report the made-up &#x2F; guess-work flu counts every single year, year after year, across all media, why haven&#x27;t they been doing exactly the same thing with Covid? That&#x27;s what I want an answer to. Everyone avoids throwing out flu-like guesses on the real scale of the pandemic - the CDC doesn&#x27;t want to do it, the media doesn&#x27;t want to do it, the government broadly doesn&#x27;t want to do it. Why aren&#x27;t they reporting that it&#x27;s more likely that there have been 60, 90, 120 million (etc) cases of Covid?<p>edit: and the downvotes on this are fascinating too, given what I&#x27;m talking about is rooted in obvious reality not propaganda or conspiracy theory. I&#x27;ve noticed reality - objectivity, facts, logic - has been particularly unpopular during the pandemic, people have been letting their emotions control their reactions to everything. I don&#x27;t believe there are very many people ignorant enough to think the official positive Covid counts actually represent the pandemic properly; I do think there are a lot of people desperate to hide from reality for one reason or another, however.
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archsurface大约 4 年前
What rubbish. In the UK the figures have been blatantly inflated. The entire UK media has turned into a bought and paid for government propaganda machine; the only journalists left are the independents. The whole thing has been such farce that I now struggle to acknowledge anything more than the presence of a virus. I still, after a year, don&#x27;t know anyone who knows anyone who&#x27;s died from this catastrophic, sky is falling, disaster pandemic. Condolences to anyone has been affected, but this whole think stinks with deceit.
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rossdavidh大约 4 年前
If you&#x27;re talking about a 7 billion population, the deaths of which will vary from year to year, this seems like a number in the noise range which would be very hard to distinguish from background variation.<p>If everyone of the 7b people lived 100 years, we would expect about 70 million deaths a year, and we know they don&#x27;t live 100 years on average. Any reasonable range of assumptions puts this in the range of too-small-to-detect. Which doesn&#x27;t mean it doesn&#x27;t matter or isn&#x27;t important, but it does mean that this is not a good method for estimating it.
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