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Why Google+ Will Take Half of the Social Networking Market from Facebook

54 点作者 jasonmcalacanis将近 14 年前

15 条评论

dasil003将近 14 年前
&#62; * While my BUZZ prediction was way off (thanks to Google freezing development!)*<p>This floored me right here. He's laying the blame of his failed Buzz prediction at Google's feet? The reason Google stopped developing Buzz is because it was stillborn. Either man up and take credit for it or else don't mention it, don't stick a waffle in parentheses and expect people to take your next prediction seriously.<p>I remember the prediction at the time because it was so irrationally exuberant:<p><a href="http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1116363" rel="nofollow">http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1116363</a><p>Google+ is obviously a lot better than Buzz, but I don't understand the justification for coming with these hyperbolic predictions. There's a big difference between impressing the bubble-within-a-bubble early adopters interacting with Jason's punditry and crossing the chasm in the way that Facebook has done.<p>Jason didn't give a timeframe for this 50/50 split, but I'll repeat my statement from 508 days ago with reasonable terms:<p>Mark my words, 3 years from now Google will not have taken 50% of Facebook's market share.
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gfodor将近 14 年前
Facebook's additional growth due to Zynga was a epilogue after it's initial takeover of the space. Facebook had three big things:<p>- It went live one campus at a time. Each campus went from 0% to ~100% adoption in a viral explosion as the buzz spread around. They had enough features (photo tagging) to keep college students coming back.<p>- The News Feed had the 1-2 punch of being both a huge technical challenge (causing competitors to lag) as well as a game-changer for the stickiness of the site and the entire premise of why people go to social networking sites. It was like nuclear fuel for the two human traits that lead to using Facebook: voyeurism and narcissism.<p>- Facebook from the very beginning valued technical talent. When the News Feed was released it was clear they were going to be the winners of this contest since they were probably the only ones capable at the time of building it and knew enough to build it in the first place.
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vessenes将近 14 年前
The analysis seems lacking to me, and a little scattered.<p>I really like google+: I prefer it to twitter and linkedin, and will use it as a replacement for them. In my opinion, it's not really a facebook killer, though; as pointed out here in the comments and elsewhere around the internet:<p>1) Bootstrapping a very large social graph is hard. Facebook knows this and is urgently trying to keep Google's mitts off their own graph.<p>2) The UI design decisions make a world of difference in usage. Facebook just isn't going to be used like Google+; it does not truly conceive of, or wish to be, a multi-persona system. Zuckerberg doesn't believe in such a thing, and neither do his top executives. They frequently push the idea of an integrated work/personal life in speeches and interviews.<p>Facebook's design and usability (and privacy settings) exemplify this approach; they will appeal to plenty of people, perhaps even most.<p>It takes more brain cells and more effort to keep social interactions segmented.<p>The tool appeals to smart online people who wish to maintain multiple personas on-line; personal and work. Bloggers, and 'personalities' will find it most compelling, and anecdotally, that's who I'm seeing most in my stream (and finding it far easier to interact with them thn on their blogs/on twitter, incidentally).<p>It will find a great niche doing that; hopefully it will be a giant niche! I don't think it will replace facebook, or be anywhere near the 50% mark in users or engagement. It's too brainy a product, made by (great) engineers and designers, while facebook is still a party.<p>Generally the fraternity houses throw better parties, engineers make better cars. This is roughly the same in my opinion.
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faramarz将近 14 年前
Why is there so much discussion about what <i>might</i> be the success or failure of Google+? it's all noise.<p>In 12 months (even less), there will be enough data to argue definitively, so what is the reason for having an opinion now. I'm not bashing you for your opinion, the whole argument is immature. Lets wait a little before psychoanalyze everything about this.
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dspace将近 14 年前
The killer advantage that he didn't mention is that Google search is used by a billion people worldwide, and is probably the start page for at least half of them. You still have to go out of you way to visit Facebook, by explicitly selecting it from your bookmarks, but seeing your Google+ notifications will be automatic and unavoidable.<p>Sure, some people will turn the feature off entirely or simply not have any friends to bootstrap themselves into the network, but hundreds of millions of people will be in a position where their interaction with Google+ will be automatic, and if you're already interacting with friends there, why bother going to Facebook?<p>Quite simply, a lot of people will be on both for a while, and use Google+ more and Facebook less over time.
protomyth将近 14 年前
If they don't start actually sending invites soon, a lot of the initial buzz will die and the people without invites will just stay where they are. If the person in a group who generally gets others on a service cannot get in, then it will be a problem. I don't think the gmail curve will work the same for a social network.
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senthilnayagam将近 14 年前
too early to predict, Facebook now has real money to compete.<p>this is googles third attempt at getting traction in social networking market dominated by Facebook. open social, google wave and now +1.<p>Yeah this UI is slightly better, but this is a temporary craze period, they need to keep moving ahead launch usable addictive features, they need to make it a habit a addiction for its user.<p>also need to build a usable mobile app for all the platforms,having a android only app or integration in android core would cause a large drop-off
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Rariel将近 14 年前
"Facebook won based on amazing technological innovations in the form of the app platform."<p>I don't think this is true. I know that people I was friends with on myspace who migrated to facebook did so because myspace got to be too much of an online pick up spot/crowded with sparkly graphics
adam_albrecht将近 14 年前
This seems to assume that Facebook is just going to be sitting on their hands and watching from the sidelines...<p>Google+ seems very nice, but from an average user's perspective, does it offer enough benefit to warrant moving away from where the vast majority of your social graph lives? I'd say probably not. It'd be like choosing between a party with decent music where you know 20 people and a party with pretty good music where you know 2 people. Most will choose to stay at the first party.
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noibl将近 14 年前
<p><pre><code> Google has a social network and a [mobile] operating system. Who’s going to have the best mobile social user experience? </code></pre> While this is an attractive bet, as Google you would have to hope that neither your OS or network got too popular or you could quickly end up in anti-trust territory. Android being open-source changes things slightly but it doesn't solve your competitors' problem (deep integration access to your own stock devices).<p><pre><code> Zynga’s IPO filing shows $597.5M in revenue and $90.6M in earnings in 2010. If Facebook had around $2B in revenue and $250 million in earnings in 2010, and 99% of Zynga’s revenue comes from Facebook, the math says Zynga could be nearly a third of of FB’s top and bottom line. </code></pre> That's some funny accounting.<p><pre><code> $1 invested in Google (at a $167B market cap) will make it to $2 before $1 invested in Facebook (at $80B market cap) makes it to $2. </code></pre> That's not so funny.
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andrewljohnson将近 14 年前
Social network markets don't get split 50/50.<p>They get split 100/0, or 90/10 maybe.
latch将近 14 年前
that website's background makes me think my monitor is really dirty. really annoying.
sheffield将近 14 年前
I don't know if Google will win or lose, but I don't think it's possible to split that market because of the herd mentality. People follow their peers and they will all either stay at Facebook or move to Google+.
mike-cardwell将近 14 年前
Most of my friends wont move from Facebook to Google+ because Google+ doesn't have support for Events. When it gets support for Events, then maybe some of them will start to consider it.
superset将近 14 年前
if they do, it won't be for quite a while. these things take time.
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