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New Details Emerge on the “Highly Modified Drone” That Outran Police Helicopters

127 点作者 maerek将近 4 年前

18 条评论

openasocket将近 4 年前
My money is on a foreign hostile entity, but not for a scouting operation, this is an exercise in deterrence. This is someone who wanted to let the US know that they are capable of getting a high-end drone into the country and launch it near important civilian and military infrastructure. Which is also why they would affix it with a bright LED light, they wanted to get noticed and then show off its capabilities.<p>It might sound counter-intuitive to outright tell your enemy what you are capable of, but that&#x27;s exactly how deterrence works. Winning a war is good, but it&#x27;s better to convince your opponent that they shouldn&#x27;t start a fight in the first place. Which means your opponent needs to have some understanding of what you are capable of. If they don&#x27;t, if you develop significant capabilities but keep them secret, your opponent may initiate hostilities with you, under the mistaken assumption that they could win. You don&#x27;t give them everything, but you give them enough to make them concerned, and even better make them over estimate the size and scale of the threat. Done right, you can get an adversary to devote far more resources to counter your threat than you put into it, or more than is warranted.
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sandworm101将近 4 年前
There are a few inconsistencies that lead me to not believe the numbers.<p>&gt;&gt;It was last seen climbing through 14,000’ and into the undercast, where it disappeared.<p>&gt;&gt;Department&#x27;s helicopter was unable to observe the drone when looking through night vision goggles.<p>If this was heading up to 14k while being chased by helicopters, it wasn&#x27;t a battery-powered quad. A medium sized drone would have to be powered by IC to perform like that. If it was IC, or even high-powered batteries, it would have been hot enough to look like a flare under night vision goggles.<p>Or, it didn&#x27;t go to 14k. It sounds to me like the chase helo lost sight of it and <i>assumed</i> that was because it hit the clouds. The light was dim and the drone had a single flashing light. It is very difficult to judge distance to a single light in twilight. The helicopter could easily have misjudged the distance&#x2F;altitude. I think the helicopter lost sight because the drone turned off the flashing light. Or maybe the drone lost power and fell. Either way, the chasing helicopter thought it had hit the cloud layer when it fact the drone might have been much lower.<p>And 14k is 4k above where the police helicopter would have stopped climbing. Aircraft heading above 10k are going to want pressurization and&#x2F;or oxygen masks. A cop helicopter won&#x27;t go that high willingly.<p>&gt;&gt;the fact that it outran two law enforcement helicopters is also concerning<p>That doesn&#x27;t mean much. Law enforcement helicopters are nothing special. A fast car or motorcycle can outrun a helicopter in a strait line. And cop helicopters aren&#x27;t meant to enforce air rules. Every Cessna-172 can outrun a police helicopter. Heck, at night a Cesna-152 could probably evade them, especially if the helos are trying to obey the rules for flying near airports.<p>Lastly, given the collision risk involved in &quot;chasing&quot; anything in the air, I&#x27;m surprised these helicopters were even allowed to give chase. If I were ATC and saw a cop helicopter chasing another smaller helicopter&#x2F;drone over a populated area I would do my best to stop this before both crashed into a school.
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toss1将近 4 年前
It could be interesting that the 4-6 rotor configuration, range&#x2F;time of around and hour and 50mi, and the 14,000ft+ performance strongly indicate a fuel-powered device, but that the night vision goggles couldn&#x27;t see it. It didn&#x27;t indicate if the NVGs were of the ambient-light-enhancing type or IR type.<p>This probably tells us that the NVGs were the ambient-light-enhancing type as there would be very little ambient reflective light up there (considering it was last seen flying up into an overcast), and IR NVGs would probably pickup some image from the heat of the rotor motors even on a battery-only device, and any un-stealthed exhaust would glow like a spotlight.<p>Still, it&#x27;d be good to know what device they were using.<p>I also have to wonder why it flew so close to the police helicopter... and then over the AFB deep into a Class C airspace. Seems too deliberate, trying to get attention, not avoid it.<p>I&#x27;ve been involved in designing &amp; building gasoline-powered drones, and that range &amp; flight time is very doable. But the performance indicates sophisticated control links and so this is very likely more than just a casual wealthy hobbyist idiot. The NatSec implications are very serious, and at least it appears that they&#x27;re paying attention to it.
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ericbarrett将近 4 年前
Is there any conclusion to reach here (assuming this report is correct) besides a hostile entity scouting U.S. infrastructure?<p>See also: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;us-news&#x2F;drones-swarmed-u-s-warships-are-still-unidentified-navy-chief-n1263115" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&#x2F;news&#x2F;us-news&#x2F;drones-swarmed-u-s-wars...</a>
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failwhaleshark将近 4 年前
My guess is that was a VTOL with efficient aerodynamics or jet drone to loiter and power for racing-class activities. If it flies, something like <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fusionflight.com&#x2F;jetquad&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;fusionflight.com&#x2F;jetquad&#x2F;</a> could pull it off.<p>Possibilities:<p>0. Rich, drone expert prankster, or startup showing-off to their buddies&#x2F;customers &quot;getting away with something&quot; highly-illegal.<p>1. State actor demonstrating strength, vulnerabilities, and&#x2F;or doing low-level recon.<p>2. Terrorists scouting targets and&#x2F;or probing vulnerabilities.<p>3. Military demonstrating vulnerabilities for civilian awareness and corrective purposes.*<p>4. Military seeking budget for anti-drone.*<p>5. Military-Industrial Complex drumming-up business for anti-drone.*<p>* Conspiracy theory-ish
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grecy将近 4 年前
&gt; <i>they believed the drone was highly unlikely to be battery-powered based on the altitude, distance, and speed at which it flew</i><p>Does that mean it&#x27;s gasoline powered?<p>Do we have many details on gas powered drones ? i.e. the kind of range, altitude and speed they can achieve?
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EMM_386将近 4 年前
I&#x27;ve always been curious if you can combine small turbine engines [1] with a drone to get something with some ridiculous performance aspects.<p>I&#x27;m not an aerospace engineer so I don&#x27;t know what something like this would look like, what the range&#x2F;ceiling would be. But these are used on some crazy model aircraft.<p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pbsaerospace.com&#x2F;small-turbine-engines" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.pbsaerospace.com&#x2F;small-turbine-engines</a>
MisterTea将近 4 年前
I read through a lot of these UAV articles on thedrive.com and they all appear to really drum up the paranoia angle.<p>I do see the threat for sure but the over the top hand waving interwoven with available solutions makes me wonder if this is a anti-UAV munitions marketing campaign.<p>However, we do indeed have a problem. I can see a single drone hovering around a nuclear facility or military base as harmless bit of curiosity. But multiple UAVs hovering for an hour are certainly suspicious.<p>The wonders of technology.
CapitalistCartr将近 4 年前
We have reached the tech level where individuals or a small group of enthusiasts can compete in the nation state arena. This is within that realm.
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rhacker将近 4 年前
Um, is anyone else thinking how impossible this would be with current tech?<p>50 miles during one stretch. And on the helicopter that followed it, it logged 1.5 hours of flight time! The radio control tech must have been extremely tuned for that range. Maybe a vehicle was driving below it.<p>I am picturing at least 5KWh battery that should weigh at least 75 pounds (total guestimation)
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throwaway4688将近 4 年前
I am quite surprised we have not seen drones as instruments of terror yet.
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oxymoran将近 4 年前
How is a “rich idiot” smart enough to build a cutting edge drone but dumb enough to accidentally fly it over an Air Force base? It doesn’t make any sense.<p>If it’s a foreign entity, how do they get it to Arizona in the first place? Why risk starting a war to test out your drone? If China or Russia has this capability, you know damn well the US does too so showing off seems unlikely.<p>And neither of these theories can identify a motive. Why would a rich idiot be flying near pipelines and air force bases to begin with. Why would a foreign country be doing a dry run so far from home at so much risk?<p>The only possibilities that I find compelling are domestic terrorist, the US government itself, or something spooky.
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tyingq将近 4 年前
The flight track seems to show the police helicopter chasing it northwest at 60 knots for 20 minutes or so and not catching up. That&#x27;s pretty impressive.
fmakunbound将近 4 年前
Good thing the drone was fitted with the FAA-required GPS reporting and registration ID transponders.
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NDizzle将近 4 年前
Well this is kind of terrifying. It was only a matter of time, I guess.
aliasEli将近 4 年前
Sunset in Tucson at Feb 9 was at 18:04 [0]. The incident occurred at 22:30, so it was pretty dark. I could not find any weather reports for that day, but since it disappeared in the undercast it must have been cloudy. Because it had been dark for some time for some time, the air must have cooled of, and it is not unreasonable to assume that there were also some smaller clouds below 14,000 feet.<p>It reportedly had a green flashing light, and because of the darkness it seems unlikely that they could could really see other details. The object could not be observed with night vision goggles which seems surprising since they are supposed to be more sensitive than the human eye.<p>When you look at a bright colored light source you will experience afterimages [1]. When you are looking at a point source you will see these as tracks (with a complementary color) around the source. These tracks are caused by your eye movements. Under low-light circumstances your vision mainly depends on rods[2]. A green light with a wave length of 523 nm is pretty close to the optimal rod sensitivity that lies at 498 nm so your rods are pretty sensitive for this wavelength. Because the outputs of rods are interpreted as light vs dark, the afterimages of the rods will be interpreted as dark.<p>&gt; While this makes rods more sensitive to smaller amounts of light,<p>&gt; it also means that their ability to sense temporal changes, such as quickly changing images, is less accurate than that of cones.[2]<p>This also implies that afterimages from rods last longer than those of cones. Afterimages follow the movement of your eyes. So if you focus on a new point, the afterimage will follow to the new point, so it can appear to move at a tremendous speed.<p>In principle rods can detect a single photon[2]. Night vision goggles generally have optimal sensitivity in the near infra-red spectrum [3] so it is not very surprising that they failed to detect green light.<p>The central part of our eyes contains few rods [2]. The effect of this is that when you try to focus on a faint light source it will seem to disappear. This is why you should always try to focus on a point close to a star but not on the star itself. If you forget to do this, you will observe that the light seems to flicker even when it is not.<p>Humans are not very good at estimating the size of objects in the sky. The reason is pretty simple, if you do not know the distance between you and the object you cannot say anything about its size. In the air it is difficult to estimate the distances because there are no real points of reference. Also remember that it was dark.<p>It&#x27;s pretty simple to buy a green laser pointer [4]. If you point it at some cloud it will appear as a green object on that cloud. Due to afterimages, it will appear to be a dark object with a green light on it. When you point at a different cloud, it will look like the object moved from its first position to its second position. If you believe that both positions are far apart then you will also believe that the object moved at a very high speed. It is also very simple to make the object disappear by turning of your pointer.<p>This seems to be a much simpler explanation than speculating about extremely powerful drones (or aliens).<p>[0] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.timeanddate.com&#x2F;sun&#x2F;usa&#x2F;tucson?month=2" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.timeanddate.com&#x2F;sun&#x2F;usa&#x2F;tucson?month=2</a><p>[1] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Afterimage" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Afterimage</a><p>[2] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Rod_cell" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Rod_cell</a><p>[3] <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Infrared#Night_vision" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Infrared#Night_vision</a><p>[4] please use your favorite search engine or supplier<p>P.S. I am a bit disappointed in most of the HN responses that assumed it was some kind of physical object without considering other possible causes.
jackric将近 4 年前
Any chance it was bat related?
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drzhnn将近 4 年前
Highly modified weather balloon, obviously.